North Korea’s satellite launch over the weekend, on the heels of its nuclear test last month, raises the prospects of renewed tensions on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia. Beijing has heretofore protected Pyongyang from stricter economic sanctions. Former U.S. foreign service officer and Northeast Asia expert, Dr. Thomas Cynkin, told The Cipher Brief that China holds all the cards for imposing tough international sanctions, but it fears playing them.
The Cipher Brief: How do you see this satellite launch impacting Pyongyang’s relationship with China? Do you believe China will pursue stricter economic sanctions?
Thomas Cynkin: It has been over a month since North Korea conducted a nuclear test on January 6. Despite this manifestly being a matter of critical concern to the international community, the UN Security Council has not passed a resolution in response. We can assume that, behind the scenes, China has been acting as a break on UN Security Council action in order to protect North Korea from possible sanctions. To date, North Korea has not indicated any particular public appreciation of China’s role in this regard, as it seems to consider this as an obligation on China’s part that corresponds to Beijing’s self-interest. Irrespective, China is unlikely to pursue stricter economic sanctions, which would risk the stability of the North Korean regime. Rather, any serious action in response to North Korean provocations is likely to come from the U.S. and its allies in the region.
TCB: China’s economic growth has slowed, and Asian markets have been particularly volatile in the past few months. What effect might Pyongyang’s announcement have on Asian stock markets and its economies?
TC: Beyond a brief downturn in some South Korean and other Asian stocks, most observers do not predict a significant impact on Asian markets, since North Korea’s aberrant behavior has become the “new normal.”
TCB: What is the significance of Kim Jong Un moving the launch up to the eve of the Chinese lunar new year?
TC: North Korea moved up its missile launch to the eve of the Chinese lunar new year, possibly as a signal to Beijing that the North will act without constraint despite behind-the-scenes exhortations by China not to test.
TCB: Many have proposed universally tighter sanctions on North Korea. Should this occur, do you see Pyongyang attempting to sell nuclear technology on the black market again? What are the risks of continued hostile actions by North Korea if tighter sanctions are imposed?
TC: Whether or not sanctions are tightened on North Korea, the DPRK can be expected to take whatever steps – including selling nuclear technology on the black market – that it believes are to its immediate benefit. Should tighter sanctions be imposed, we can assume an escalation in North Korea’s rhetoric and perhaps a dramatic gesture of defiance. This should not, however, deter the international community from pursuing sanctions against North Korea, lest Pyongyang learn the lesson that it can test nuclear weapons and missiles with impunity.
TCB: Are sanctions the best approach to influencing Pyongyang’s behavior? If so, how can we adapt current sanctions to best magnify the effects felt in North Korea? Where is current policy lacking in responding to increasingly aggressive actions taken by North Korea?
TC: Short of pursuing regime change, sanctions offer a means of influencing Pyongyang’s behavior – but only if China takes sanctions seriously. The Chinese hold all the cards but are reluctant to play them for fear of destabilizing a buffer state on their border. Merely tightening existing sanctions will not have a tangible impact on North Korea’s behavior, since the road to Pyongyang lies through Beijing. Current US policy is lacking in mistakenly assuming that China largely shares our concerns about North Korea; while our strategic priority should be preventing North Korea from developing a credible and sustainable nuclear deterrent capable of striking the US, China’s priority is maintaining the stability of its recalcitrant neighbor. By moving ahead with Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) with the Republic of Korea, and looking ahead to regional missile defense, the U.S. and its allies can help contend with the North Korean missile threat and demonstrate to China that it pays a price for allowing North Korea to move inexorably toward nuclear missile capability.
