President Trump touted the lack of nuclear showmanship in a Tweet directed at North Korean leader Kim Jong Un: “This is a big and very positive statement from North Korea. Thank you To Chairman Kim. There is nothing like good dialogue from two people that like each other!”
The parade focused instead on efforts to boost North Korea’s economy, which is consistent with Kim Jong Un’s ‘New Strategic Line’ announced earlier this year.
Cipher Brief Expert, Ambassador Joe DeTrani, has served as Director of the National Counter Proliferation Center and as Envoy for Six Party Talks. He has made several trips to the region since last June’s Singapore Summit and has engaged in conversations with South Korean, Russian and Chinese counterparts.
The following is part one of a member briefing with the Ambassador about the status of negotiations and what kind of timeline to expect for progress on denuclearization.
This is an edited version of his conversation with Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly.
Kelly: Can you start us off with an overview of what you believe the most pressing issues are right now?
DeTrani: Thank you, Suzanne. It's great being with you and thank you for what you're doing with The Cipher Brief. Let me just say I did just come back from the region, I was in China a few weeks ago, and most recently in South Korea and let me just refresh your memories as to what’s been going on and the critical point we're at right now.
Today, we have a North Korea now with somewhere between 40 to 60 nuclear weapons as well as intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities that they demonstrated in 2017. And they also demonstrated a thermonuclear event in 2017.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Director, National Counter Proliferation Center
"What we have today is a young leader, Kim Jong Un, who has come to the table starting on the 1st of January with his new year's address basically saying, ‘Look I want to take a different tack. I want to re-engage with South Korea and I also want to re-engage with the United States and then seek some sort of accommodation.'"
I think we have to realize that biting sanctions had a lot to do with this. The rather intimidating joint military exercises had a lot to do with it. But I think we should also keep in mind that this young leader who studied in Switzerland and his focus, as he indicated, is on economic development and trying to move the equation so that North Korea can start working on its economy. It is, in many ways a very weak economy, with significant numbers of citizens in North Korea experiencing malnourishment. We just saw a recent study from the United Nations citing 40 percent of the North Korean population is malnourished.
So he's a young leader who comes to the table in January saying, ‘I have a nuclear deterrent. Now I don't really have to prove anything. I have a nuclear deterrent but I want a different tack.’ And what he's saying is: ‘I need security assurances, I need sanctions lifted and I'm looking for a normal relationship with the United States and other countries. And I want to focus on economic development.’
This is where we are, so we have a summit with the South Korean leader on the twenty seventh of April. And then on the 12th of June we have a summit with President Donald Trump. And we’re looking at a third summit with President Moon Jae-In of South Korea in a few days time.
And this is a man who also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping a number of times in Beijing.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Director, National Counter Proliferation Center
"We're at a critical juncture right now. What North Korea is saying is the U.S. promised the security assurances and this is what we need. Here’s a young man who wants to live a long life and he wants to see a better economy for North Korea. But he would also like to retain nuclear weapons and he knows that's not going to happen."
He knows that because of 25 years of negotiations with the U.S. and others. He also knows it from his meetings with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and certainly the president of the United States. The U.S. policy has been and continues to be, complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement of nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons facilities. What Kim Jong Un is saying now is, ‘OK, I need security assurances. I need you to at least start moving with a peace treaty to end the Korean War. Sanctions need to be lifted. I need a more normal relationship and movement towards normal diplomatic relations with the U.S.’
The inflection point we're at right now is this: What comes first? We've had 25 years of negotiations. We had a joint statement in 2005. It took us two years to get that. Where we are now is North Korea saying give us a declaration that you're going to end the Korean War and then we'll have a peace treaty and then we'll talk about giving you a declaration on nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons facilities. And the U.S. is saying, ‘Look, that's not where we are. We need to start moving on denuclearization.’ North Korea knows this.
So the U.S. is saying, ‘We want a declaration on all your nuclear weapons and your facilities and your personnel as a beginning. We need a verification protocol that will include nuclear monitors visiting non-declared suspect nuclear sites.’ If you remember, this was the issue that unraveled the joint statement of 2005, when at the end of 2008, North Korea refused to sign a declaration permitting nuclear monitors to leave the Yongbyon plutonium facility and visit undeclared suspect nuclear sites.
So North Korea’s saying, ‘We need a declaration ending the Korean War,’ and the U.S. is saying, ‘We need a declaration about your nuclear facilities and personnel.’ There could be a quid pro quo opportunity here, something like a declaration for a declaration. Certainly I think there's a good sense in the United States and among others, that to give a declaration to end the Korean War without any reciprocity on the part of North Korea would not be a prudent thing to do.
So this is where we are with negotiations right now. Secretary Mike Pompeo’s visit was postponed as you indicated, Suzanne. A part of that postponement was reportedly because of a letter he received from Kim Yong Cho, his counterpart, indicating that North Korea wants a declaration ending the Korean War.
We've had 25 years of failed negotiations. It's a North Korea now with more nuclear and missile capabilities, but it's also a leader who's saying, ‘I want a normal relationship, I want to get out of my isolation and I want to focus on the economy. And I want to move in a different direction.’
So how do we get all this moving in sync? The U.S. now has a new special representative and we can’t forget that he, and everyone else, will need to exercise some patience. We're talking about only two and a half months since the visit of the summit with President Donald Trump. So there needs to be patience but there also needs perseverance. We should never cave in and recognize North Korea even retaining some nuclear weapons as a nuclear weapons state. It would be a disaster.
A North Korea with nuclear weapons raises the possibility for proliferation and other countries getting, or seeking, nuclear weapons or the possibility of fissile material getting into the hands of non-state terrorist actors.
Kelly: Can you give us some sense of what you think is causing the foot dragging? If, in fact, this is what the North Korean leader wants, to bring a better life for his people, then why the slow rolling on progress? What’s the purpose behind it? And do you think there is any truth to the fact that Kim Jong Un is portraying one message while the people who work for him on the military side have a very different view of these negotiations and their stance with the United States?
DeTrani: North Korea has always insisted that they be accepted as a nuclear weapons state and they have said they will be a ‘responsible’ nuclear weapons state. And the U.S. has made it clear that that's not the case. North Korea has put in decades working on their nuclear weapons program and they’ve invested billions of dollars. To expect North Korea simply to walk away from all of their nuclear weapons and their nuclear weapons program that easily is, I think, being unrealistic. I think there's a good possibility we will get there, but that's assuming sanctions are in play and that the joint military exercises could be resumed. And that there will also be consequences for North Korea retaining nuclear weapons. I think this is how Kim Jong Un understands that, so the U.S. has to be strong on sanctions, they have to be strong on joint military exercises, but indeed they also have to be strong with their allies and partners. We have to all be in sync on this issue because if there's a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea or China and the others, North Korea will seize on that.
And yes, there are people in North Korea who are saying, ‘Why would we give up all of our nuclear weapons? Maybe we can retain some capability.’ And the U.S. is saying, ‘No, you can't retain any capability.’ So there is that internal pressure on Kim Jong Un. But look Suzanne, I think the consensus is that North Korea has consolidated power. Kim Jong Un is in control. He's removed a lot of people who did not share his vision. So I think he can make these decisions now as long as he realizes we will persevere, we're in sync with our allies and partners and we'll move forward.
Kelly: You mentioned that it's very important to show an allied front on behalf of the allied partners in this negotiation. How do you interpret the Chinese president not attending Pyongyang’s anniversary celebration? Is that a sign of frustration over the lack of progress with negotiations?
DeTrani: You know I think the postponement of Secretary Pompeo’s visit was disturbing for South Korea. I was just there, and I think it's had an impact in China as well because China wants to see movement on this. They have trade issues with the United States and other issues, and I think they want to isolate the two. But I think they want to really focus on the trade and the relationship with the United States.
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Director, National Counter Proliferation Center
"If North Korea is not moving in a positive direction with the United States, that puts another issue on the table, and I think that's an irritant for Xi Jinping. So yes, I think certainly South Korea, but also China, were disappointed with the postponement of Secretary Pompeo’s visit."
Soon we will have a third summit between President Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong Un, and as it was told to me last week, the key issue there will be denuclearization so as to facilitate the U.S. and North Korea coming back to the table and moving forward with the whole issue of comprehensive verifiable denuclearization in return for security assurances and eventually the lifting of sanctions and a normal relationship with the United States.
Part two of Ambassador DeTrani's North Korea Brief will focus on the critical allied relationships with partners like South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.
