Report for Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Report for Wednesday, June 18, 2025

• Trump demands complete ‘surrender’ by Tehran as US mulls military action
  
  
• US is moving fighter jets to the Middle East as Israel-Iran war rages
  
  
• G7 abandons joint Ukraine statement as Zelensky says diplomacy is in crisis
  
  
• China’s got the world in a rare earth choke hold

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How Things Could go from Worse to Devastating for Iran. Following Israel’s devastating airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, the region teeters on the brink of a wider war. Israeli forces claim control over Tehran’s airspace, prompting evacuation warnings amid potential follow-up strikes. President Donald Trump, who abruptly left the G7 a day early on Monday, declared Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons and hinted at broader U.S. involvement. Over 30 U.S. refueling aircraft have been deployed, and the USS Nimitz is en route. Experts like Norm Roule warn the attacks have severely degraded Iran’s nuclear capabilities—destroying key facilities and killing top scientists—yet key underground sites like Fordow remain intact. Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie and Admiral James Stavridis suggest cyberwarfare and bunker-busting bombers could be used next. If Iran retaliates, the U.S. could be drawn in, potentially triggering regime change. While Iran’s regional proxies are weakened, Roule warns that chaos could follow if the regime collapses, raising urgent concerns about nuclear security and future leadership within Iran. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Why Iran’s Nuclear Program Cannot Be Dismantled from the Air.Military and political analyst Carlo J.V. Caro argues that Iran’s nuclear program cannot be dismantled through airstrikes alone, regardless of technological sophistication or U.S.-Israeli cooperation. Iran’s facilities like Fordow and Natanz are deeply buried, redundantly structured, and legally protected under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran has decentralized its nuclear capabilities across military-linked organizations, universities, and civilian infrastructure, making the system resilient and capable of rapid reconstitution even after significant physical damage. Key assets—designs, trained personnel, and indigenous manufacturing—cannot be destroyed from the air. Moreover, the lack of International Atomic Energy Agency inspection access since 2021 means intelligence is incomplete, and battle damage assessments are unreliable. Historical precedents—Osirak, Syria, Libya, and South Africa—do not apply because Iran's program is far more advanced and hardened. Caro concludes that only a ground incursion with full control over facilities, scientists, and documents—akin to Iraq in 2003—could dismantle the program. Airstrikes may delay progress but cannot eliminate Iran’s strategic nuclear latency or knowledge base. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Indian leader openly rejects Trump’s assertion that US helped mediate ceasefire with Pakistan. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has disputed U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that the May ceasefire between India and Pakistan was achieved through U.S. mediation, telling the American leader that direct military talks brought results. According to Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, Modi clarified during a phone call on the sidelines of the G7 summit that there was no discussion of U.S. involvement or trade deals during the conflict. This contradicts Trump’s earlier statement that U.S. mediation ended the hostilities. Modi also reportedly emphasized that “India has never accepted mediation, does not accept it, and will never accept it.” The four-day conflict, the worst in decades, followed a deadly April 22 attack in Indian Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-backed militants. In response, India launched cross-border airstrikes under “Operation Sindoor,” which Modi said remains ongoing. Trump expressed support for the country’s counterterrorism efforts and was invited to visit India later this year for the Quad summit. The White House has not commented on the call. ReutersBloombergAl JazeeraBBC

Inside the clashes between Trump and Gabbard.Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence under President Trump, has reportedly become embroiled in a tense clash with the president following her early-morning video warning of “nuclear annihilation” and accusing warmongering elites of heightening global tensions. Trump was reportedly “incensed” by the unauthorized post, viewing it as off-message and undercutting his policy posture—despite Gabbard’s insistence that they remain aligned on Iran strategy. The episode has fueled speculation in Washington that Trump’s confidence in Gabbard is eroding, with some even suggesting her office might be absorbed into the CIA. Yet Gabbard continues to publicly support Trump’s broader agenda, even as her future influence remains in question. Politico

National Security Council taps ex-soldier with business experience for top Europe role. The White House has appointed Charles McLaughlin, a former Army Special Forces officer with extensive business and policy experience, as senior director for European and Russian Affairs at the National Security Council. His appointment signals a renewed emphasis on advancing American business interests in Russia and Ukraine, even as the war between the two countries persists. McLaughlin’s background includes management roles at top consulting firms and previous government service during Trump’s first term, notably with the Development Finance Corporation and the NSC. His business ties to Moscow are underscored by his past role overseeing a major U.S.-Russia investment forum at Harvard. The appointment follows a sweeping May purge at the NSC that removed the Ukraine war team, baffling European allies. Trump has expressed enthusiasm for boosting trade with Russia and has signed a deal to secure U.S. access to Ukrainian mineral resources. McLaughlin replaces Andrew Peek, who was ousted during the recent shakeup. Reuters

Haiti Is Using Drones to Fight Gangs. Here’s Why That’s Likely to Be Illegal. The Haitian government has begun using explosive-equipped drones in a controversial attempt to combat the powerful, violent gangs that control much of Port-au-Prince. The strikes, which have reportedly killed over 300 gang members, aim to apply pressure on gangs like the Viv Ansanm coalition that have overrun police stations and public institutions, and displaced 1.3 million. The government relies on private military contractors to carry out the strikes, to curb information leaks. Despite these efforts, no major gang territory has been reclaimed, and high-value targets remain at large. The campaign has drawn sharp criticism from Canada, which supplied some of the drones, accusing Haiti of violating international and domestic law; drone use is only lawful in formally declared armed conflicts. Human rights experts argue that, without transparency or legal oversight, these strikes lack legitimacy. Many Haitians welcome the operations as a rare counteroffensive, but analysts caution that lethal drone use without a broader strategy or ground forces is ineffective. Experts say killing gang leaders alone won't restore order or dismantle entrenched criminal networks. New York Times

Canada’s Carney, India’s Modi hold talks to reset ties following two years of tensions. India and Canada held a bilateral meeting on Tuesday, their first since tensions erupted in 2023 over accusations that India was involved in the killing of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Prime Ministers Mark Carney and Narendra Modi met at the G7 summit in Alberta, projecting a cordial tone and agreeing to restore diplomatic ties by appointing new envoys. Carney avoided mention of the murder controversy, while both leaders underscored mutual respect, democracy, and the rule of law. India has denied any involvement in the killing and criticized Ottawa for harboring Sikh separatists. Despite continued outrage from Canada's Sikh community, which protested Modi’s visit, both governments appear eager to reset relations. Canada sees New Delhi as a vital partner in trade and global supply chains, with hopes of increasing agricultural exports. Modi, making his first visit to Canada in a decade, called the meeting “excellent.” ReutersBangkok Post

700 military personnel mobilized to support ICE in 3 states. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sanctioned the deployment of up to 700 U.S. troops to support Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas, providing logistical and administrative help at detention facilities. The troops, operating under Title 10 authority, will not engage in law enforcement but aim to free up ICE agents for those tasks. The move follows similar deployments to California, where protests erupted over the Trump administration’s workplace immigration raids. Critics, including Sen. Patty Murray and California Governor Gavin Newsom, have condemned the use of military personnel in domestic affairs as unconstitutional and dangerous. A group of retired generals and former military leaders also warned against involving the armed forces in politically charged domestic issues, arguing it risks damaging the military’s integrity and public trust. Legal challenges are underway, as the Pentagon insists the deployment supports national sovereignty and ICE operations. The Hill

Trump’s Conflicting Messages on Workplace Raids Leave Businesses Reeling. President Trump’s immigration policy is sending mixed signals, leaving industries and immigrant communities dazed. While Trump has pledged mass deportations, he also suggested leniency for sectors like agriculture and hospitality, which rely heavily on undocumented labor. Following backlash from business leaders and officials, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) briefly paused workplace raids, sparking tensions within the administration. Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has reaffirmed aggressive enforcement, urging ICE to focus on arrest numbers while stressing that workplace raids must be coordinated through leadership. Business leaders and some Republicans argue that undocumented workers are essential to the economy, especially with low unemployment. Yet others insist no sector should be exempt from enforcement. The ambiguity has left employers unable to plan and immigrant communities fearful and uncertain. Advocates say the inconsistent messaging has created emotional whiplash for undocumented families who live with the daily threat of deportation. New York TimesAxios

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

G7 abandons joint Ukraine statement as Zelensky says diplomacy is in crisis. The G7 summit in Kananaskis ended Tuesday without a joint statement on Ukraine due to U.S. resistance, highlighting fractures in Western unity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, denied a meeting with President Donald Trump, warned that diplomacy is in crisis and urged stronger U.S. pressure on Russia. Canada pledged $1.47 billion in new aid and sanctions, while Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to issue a separate chair statement urging more pressure on Moscow. Trump left early to address the Israel-Iran crisis but denied it was tied to any ceasefire efforts. Though European leaders pushed for tougher sanctions, Trump offered no firm commitments. Meanwhile, Russia mocked the G7 as “useless” while Zelensky emphasized the urgency of U.S. leadership amid ongoing deadly Russian attacks. Carney also used the summit to engage non-G7 nations, such as India and Mexico, signaling Canada’s intent to diversify its global partnerships. Despite some progress, the summit revealed deep diplomatic challenges ahead for Ukraine and its allies. G7 leaders agreed on six statements – about migrant smuggling, artificial intelligence, critical minerals, wildfires, transnational repression, and quantum computing. Reuters

Death toll rises to at least 26 in Russian strikes on Kyiv, other cities. The death toll from Russia’s deadliest air assault on Ukraine’s capital this year stood at 26 on Wednesday, with more than 150 people injured nationwide. Ukrainian officials said Tuesday’s barrage—440 drones and 32 missiles—struck 27 locations across Kyiv in successive waves, flattening part of a residential building in the Solomianskyi district – where 21 were killed – and damaging schools and critical infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelensky, condemned the strikes as “pure terrorism” and urged Western allies to accelerate deliveries of air defense systems, warning, “this is a matter of life and death.” The assault came as diplomatic efforts faltered and Russia has intensified pressure on the frontlines and Ukrainian cities alike.NV Ukrainska Pravda

Putin aide Shoigu, North Korea’s Kim meet as Pyongyang unveils more military aid. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Russian security chief Sergei Shoigu in Pyongyang on Tuesday to deepen military cooperation with Moscow, including the deployment of additional North Korean personnel to Russia. Russian media reported that Pyongyang agreed to send 6,000 military workers—5,000 for infrastructure reconstruction and 1,000 sappers for mine clearance in the Kursk region. This marks the third Shoigu-Kim meeting in three months, as both nations expand their strategic alliance under international sanctions. Kim reaffirmed his unconditional support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. U.S. and South Korean officials condemned the move, warning of growing military collaboration and possible exchanges of technology and weapons. South Korea estimates North Korea has already sent at least 15,000 troops to Russia since last fall. The partnership raises alarms in Seoul and Washington, complicating peace prospects on the Korean Peninsula and intensifying concerns over North Korea’s access to modern combat experience and advanced military tech. BloombergNew York TimesReutersThe Moscow TimesAssociated Press

Treasury secretary says Ukraine minerals deal could launch economic growth. In an interview on Pod Force One, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the recently signed U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal could spark economic growth in Ukraine on par with post-Cold War Poland, potentially deterring future Russian aggression. The deal, signed in April, includes the establishment of a Joint Reconstruction Investment Fund, which will allow both nations to acquire oil, gas and critical mineral licenses and split any profits 50/50. American military assistance to Ukraine will also be counted as a financial contribution to the fund, allowing Washington to continue supporting the war effort without dipping into taxpayer money. Bessent acknowledged corruption concerns but expressed confidence the funds would benefit ordinary Ukrainians. He said that President Volodymyr Zelensky initially hesitated due to internal pressures. With rebuilding costs estimated at $524 billion, the deal could give U.S. investors a foothold in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Bessent emphasized the partnership’s strategic value: “If they win, we win. If we win, they win.” New York Post

Ukraine’s ‘Spiderweb’ drone assault forces Russia to shelter, move aircraft. Ukraine’s June 1 drone offensive, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, forced Russia to relocate and fortify its strategic bomber fleet, marking a major shift in Moscow’s defense posture. The attack damaged or destroyed aircraft at key airbases—including Olenya, Belaya, and Dyagilevo—and shattered Russia’s sense of security deep within its territory. In response, Russia began rapidly constructing shelters and dispersing aircraft to more remote or protected sites. Satellite imagery shows new fortifications at Kirovskoe, Gvardiyskoye, and Saki in Crimea, as well as Engels airbase and others across Russia. All Tu-95 bombers were withdrawn from Olenya in the Arctic by June 7. Analysts say this response underscores Ukraine’s ability to project power thousands of kilometers from the front lines, reshaping Russia’s air defense strategy. While the long-term military effect remains uncertain, the strikes dealt a psychological blow and forced costly shifts in Russian force deployment and infrastructure. Al Jazeera

Drones, Distractions, Diplomacy: How Could The Israel-Iran Conflict Affect Russia's War Against Ukraine? The Israel-Iran conflict is creating ripple effects that could complicate the war in Ukraine, largely to Moscow’s advantage. As global attention shifts to the Middle East, U.S. and European focus—and potentially weapons and aid—may be diverted from Ukraine. Higher oil prices driven by regional instability could boost Russian revenues, undermining Western sanctions aimed at crippling the Kremlin’s war machine. While some analysts suggest Iran’s drone supplies to Russia may be affected, Moscow has localized production of Shahed variants. Politically, Russian officials hope Israel’s strikes on Iranian cities will blunt criticism of Russia’s own attacks on Ukrainian civilians. President Donald Trump, now prioritizing mediation between Israel and Iran, may delay new pressure on Moscow. Though Trump has voiced frustration with President Vladimir Putin’s intransigence, he is considering involving the Kremlin as a mediator in Middle East diplomacy, potentially giving Putin more leverage in global affairs. Still, experts agree Ukraine remains Putin’s primary strategic focus despite the distractions. RFE/RL

Trump's Ukraine envoy to meet Belarus' Lukashenko, sources say. U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg is planning a high-level visit to Belarus to meet President Alexander Lukashenko, marking the most senior U.S. engagement with the Belarusian leader in years. The trip, not yet public, aims to explore ways to advance stalled Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, though its agenda remains unclear. Under President Donald Trump’s second term, Washington has renewed efforts to draw Minsk away from Moscow’s orbit, reversing Joe Biden-era policies that isolated Belarus after its 2020 election crackdown. Recent gestures suggest Lukashenko may be open to thawing ties. However, Western diplomats remain skeptical, citing Belarus’ alignment with Russia and its deep economic ties to Moscow. Reuters

Ukraine allows multiple citizenship as war drags on. Ukraine’s parliament approved a law allowing dual or multiple citizenships, aiming to address a demographic crisis worsened by the ongoing war with Russia and to strengthen ties with the global Ukrainian diaspora. Previously, Ukrainians had to renounce other citizenships to obtain a Ukrainian passport. The government estimates the diaspora at 25 million people, while Ukraine’s current population has declined to 32 million—down from 52 million in 1991. The war, now in its fourth year, has displaced over 5 million Ukrainians to Europe and caused tens of thousands of deaths. The new law simplifies citizenship for children born abroad, spouses, and foreigners fighting for Ukraine. While it doesn’t outright ban Russians, it allows restrictions tied to armed aggression. Applicants must pass a test on Ukrainian language, history, and the constitution. Reuters

'Street Of Death': RFE/RL Unmasks Russian Soldiers Behind Bucha Killings. A new investigation by RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service reconstructs the massacre of civilians on Yablunska Street in Bucha over three days in March 2022, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using surveillance footage, drone images, and military records, the report identifies soldiers from Russia’s 234th Pskov Regiment as key perpetrators. Civilians were executed in cold blood, including Valeriy Kizilov, shot outside his home while his wife hid in the cellar, and a fleeing family whose vehicle was fired upon, killing a father and maiming a child. Identified soldiers, including Sergeant Vladimir Borzunov and Lieutenant Artyom Tareyev, showed no remorse. Survivors’ testimonies and documented evidence starkly contradict Russian denials and claims that the massacre was staged. Ukraine has charged several Russian officers in absentia and urged the International Criminal Court to investigate the killings as war crimes. The Bucha atrocities remain emblematic of the brutality inflicted during Russia’s early assault on Kyiv. RFE/RL

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 17. The European Union and UK introduced new sanctions packages against Russia targeting its financial, military, and energy sectors, including measures against the import/export activity involving occupied Crimea.

EUROPE

EU Lays Out Plan to Bolster Defense Industry. The European Commission has unveiled a plan to strengthen the European Union’s defense industry by easing regulatory constraints, aiming to boost competitiveness and speed up project approvals. Key proposals include encouraging merger watchdogs to support defense sector deals, clarifying that some defense investments may qualify as ESG-friendly, and launching a fast-track permitting system to reduce approval times from years to 60 days. These reforms follow broader efforts to revise EU fiscal rules, allowing for increased defense spending, particularly as U.S. military aid to Ukraine is expected to decline. EU leaders emphasized the need for stronger industrial collaboration and regulatory clarity to help European firms compete globally and enhance the bloc’s defense readiness. Wall Street Journal

US defense firms chase European military spending wave. U.S. defense firms are aggressively targeting Europe’s sharp surge in military spending at the 2025 Paris Air Show, as European nations ramp up their budgets in response to Russia's war in Ukraine and uncertainty over the Trump administration’s commitment to regional defense. Major companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Boeing, and emerging tech firms such as Anduril and Palantir are forming partnerships—most notably Anduril with Germany’s Rheinmetall and Raytheon’s plan to build Stinger missiles in Europe—to supply fighter jets, missile systems, drones, and advanced technologies while reinforcing transatlantic interoperability. Reuters

Rheinmetall, Anduril Team Up to Jointly Produce Defense Systems for Europe.Germany’s Rheinmetall and U.S. defense startup Anduril Industries have announced a new partnership to jointly develop and produce defense systems for Europe, amid rising security investments across the continent. The collaboration will begin with European variants of Anduril’s Barracuda missile and Fury autonomous air vehicle, integrated into Rheinmetall’s digital sovereignty framework. The companies also plan to explore European production of solid rocket motors using Anduril’s methods. Development and manufacturing will involve suppliers and industrial partners across Europe. This expanded alliance builds on previous cooperation and is intended to grow into additional defense areas over time, reinforcing trans-Atlantic defense ties. Wall Street Journal

Denmark’s Frederiksen moves to keep Greenland out of Trump’s clutches. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced Tuesday increased investment in Greenland to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic territory. Speaking alongside Greenlandic and Faroese leaders, Frederiksen said Copenhagen would fund critical infrastructure like ports with both civilian and military applications. Trump has made multiple remarks about taking over Greenland, even refusing to rule out military force, sparking condemnation from European leaders. Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory rich in rare earth minerals, has a growing independence movement but favors ties with Denmark over U.S. control. Greenland’s foreign minister also seeks stronger EU cooperation, especially in developing the island’s strategic mineral resources. Politico EU

EU Plans Historic Moldova Summit But Stays Vague On Accession Timeline. The European Union will hold its first-ever summit with Moldova on July 4 in Chisinau, signaling deeper political engagement but offering no clear timeline for EU accession. The summit aims to reward President Maia Sandu’s pro-European reforms ahead of Moldova’s fall elections, though Brussels remains concerned about corruption and judicial transparency. The EU may begin accession talks by opening Moldova’s “fundamental cluster” of legal reform, but has removed language about opening all negotiation chapters, reflecting member state hesitations. Diplomats speculate that Moldova could advance ahead of Ukraine due to Hungary’s continued obstruction of Kyiv’s path. The summit declaration sharply criticizes Russia for hybrid threats and calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transdniester. The EU also hinted at a potential “Cyprus model” for Moldova’s integration, allowing accession despite unresolved separatist issues. Notably, no new sanctions against Russian-linked individuals were announced, though existing measures against 16 Moldovan figures remain in place. RFE/RL

Unmanned Leonardo jet trainers could take GCAP drone role, CEO says. Italy is keeping its options open for developing drone technology under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), with Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani suggesting Italy may convert its M-345 or M-346 trainer jets into unmanned aircraft. While the partnership with Turkish drone maker Baykar introduces alternatives like the jet-powered Kizilelma, Cingolani emphasized Italy could reverse the typical approach — modifying manned aircraft into drones rather than adapting drones into aircraft. His remarks suggest Baykar won’t automatically supply the GCAP drone component. The sixth-generation GCAP fighter, jointly developed by the UK, Italy, and Japan, is envisioned to operate alongside advanced drones. While focus currently centers on the main piloted aircraft — reportedly massive in size — partners can independently pursue drone developments over the next five years. Defense News

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump demands complete ‘surrender’ by Tehran as US mulls military action. President Trump has sharply escalated his rhetoric toward Iran, calling for its “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and hinting at possible U.S. military action in coordination with Israel’s ongoing strikes. While no formal decision has been made, Trump suggested U.S. forces could target Iran’s leadership and nuclear sites, notably the fortified Fordow enrichment facility. As the conflict entered its sixth day, he boasted of having “total control of the skies over Iran,” and said Washington knew the location of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but wouldn’t target him “for now.” This marks a shift from his earlier push for negotiations, prompted by his growing skepticism about reaching a nuclear deal. Trump’s administration is deploying additional military assets to Europe and the Middle East, signaling readiness for a potential strike while maintaining ambiguity. Legal and strategic concerns loom over the prospect of a U.S. attack, with experts warning of serious Iranian retaliation. The president’s alignment with Israel and hardline stance on Iran could plunge the region into deeper instability. Wall Street JournalNew York TimesReutersAxios

Iran's Khamenei rejects Trump's call for unconditional surrender.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday publicly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for Iran’s unconditional surrender, warning that no peace or war terms can be imposed on the Islamic Republic. "Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender," he said. "The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage." His remarks came as Israeli warplanes bombed Tehran overnight, prompting thousands to flee. Israel said 50 jets struck 20 targets tied to missile production. A source indicated Trump is weighing options, including joining Israel in strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran warned it would retaliate against any U.S. involvement, calling Washington complicit in Israel’s actions. ReutersNew York Times

How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel. In the weeks leading up to Israel’s massive strikes on Iran, President Donald Trump vacillated between diplomacy and military engagement. Initially resisting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s calls for a preemptive attack, Trump pursued negotiations with Iran, even sending a personal letter to Ayatollah Khamenei. However, as U.S. intelligence concluded that Netanyahu would strike regardless of U.S. involvement, Trump grew frustrated with the stalled talks and began shifting. After Israel launched its assault on Thursday, Trump’s position evolved from cautious distance to behind-the-scenes support—authorizing intelligence sharing and weighing military involvement, including refueling Israeli jets or striking Iran’s Fordow site. Despite internal concerns about regime-change entanglement, Trump’s team—largely loyalists—aligned with his instincts. As the conflict escalated, Trump moved closer to Netanyahu’s aggressive posture, believing Iran had played him diplomatically. While some in his circle still hoped for a deal, Trump now appears poised to escalate U.S. involvement, framing it as essential to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. New York Times

This ‘Bunker Buster’ U.S. Bomb Could Cripple Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions.The 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), designed to pierce up to 200 feet of rock, is the U.S.’s most potent non-nuclear weapon for targeting deeply buried nuclear sites like Iran’s Fordow facility. Developed at a cost of $400 million and deployable via B-2 stealth bombers, the MOP is viewed by analysts as the best chance of neutralizing hardened underground targets. While Israel has already hit Iran’s Natanz underground centrifuge halls site, the Fordow uranium-enrichment facility remains untouched. If the U.S. joins Israel’s campaign, former Pentagon officials suggest MOPs would be the optimal tool. Though the United Nations warns of safety risks, experts believe radiation leakage from strikes on Fordow would be minimal. Israel may still act alone using smaller bunker busters, cyberattacks, or commandos, but U.S. involvement would raise the operation’s chances of success. President Donald Trump, who once favored diplomacy, has shifted to threats, hinting at a broader escalation. Wall Street Journal

Israel Is Running Low on Defensive Interceptors, Official Says.Israel is running low on Arrow interceptors, key components of its missile defense system used to counter Iranian long-range ballistic missiles, according to a U.S. official. The shortage has raised alarm in both Washington and Tel Aviv, especially as the conflict with Iran continues to escalate. The U.S. has been supplementing Israel’s defenses with additional missile systems across land, sea, and air, but experts warn that both nations are depleting interceptor stockpiles at an unsustainable rate. Israel Aerospace Industries, the Arrow’s manufacturer, declined to comment, and the Israeli Defense Forces said it is prepared for any scenario but would not discuss munitions levels. The growing shortage underscores vulnerabilities in Israel’s multilayered defense posture. Wall Street Journal

US is moving fighter jets to the Middle East as Israel-Iran war rages.The U.S. is deploying additional fighter jets, including F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s, to the Middle East and extending existing air force missions amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, U.S. officials confirmed. The moves are described as defensive, aimed at protecting American forces and assets from potential Iranian retaliation. The Pentagon is also considering sending more Navy warships to the Eastern Mediterranean to enhance ballistic missile defense. These deployments follow the dispatch of tanker aircraft to Europe and an aircraft carrier to the region. The U.S. already maintains about 40,000 troops in the Middle East. Tensions surged after Israel launched its largest-ever air campaign on Iran, citing nuclear concerns. Reuters

As Israel Targets Iran’s Nuclear Program, It Has a Secret One of Its Own. As Israel targets Iran’s nuclear facilities, scrutiny has turned to Israel’s own secretive nuclear weapons program—long an open secret but never officially acknowledged. Experts estimate Israel holds at least 90 nuclear warheads, with materials to produce many more. Its arsenal, deliverable by jets, submarines, or missiles, is believed to be based at the Dimona facility in the Negev desert, where recent satellite imagery suggests upgrades or reactor expansion. Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has never allowed international inspections of Dimona. While Israel maintains it will not be the first to “introduce” nuclear weapons in the region, its policy is seen as strategic ambiguity. Historical records indicate Israel gained nuclear capability by 1967 but has never used the weapons in war. The program’s existence is seen as a key part of Israel’s deterrence posture, rooted in national survival, particularly in the wake of the Holocaust and regional hostility. New York Times

US pulls out of two more bases in Syria, worrying Kurdish forces. U.S. forces have withdrawn from two more bases in northeastern Syria—Al-Wazir and Tel Baydar—bringing the total to at least four closures since President Donald Trump took office. Reporters confirmed the sites were largely abandoned, guarded only by small units of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the Kurdish-led military group that Washington has backed in the fight against the Islamic State for a decade. The drawdown, reducing the U.S. presence from eight to one base with as few as 500 soldiers, has alarmed SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, who warned it could fuel an Islamic State resurgence. ISIS has become more active, launching deadly attacks and seizing weapons amid post-Assad chaos. Just hours after Abdi's interview at Al Shadadi base, Iranian-made missiles targeted the site, underscoring the region's rising volatility. Reuters

As Other Arab States Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran, Syria Is Notably Silent. Syria’s silence following Israel’s major strikes on Iran marks a dramatic shift in regional dynamics. Under new President Ahmed al-Shara, Syria has broken from its historic alliance with Tehran, pledging to expel Iranian proxies and prevent attacks on Israel from its territory. This realignment aims to distance Syria from the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" and win favor with Western nations. Analysts say Syria’s quiet response is a signal to Israel and the U.S. of its new stance. Al-Shara’s government has even held direct talks with Israeli officials over security issues—once unthinkable. While Syria hopes for a weakened Iran, there’s concern it may face pressure to normalize ties with Israel. New York Times

Despite Close Ties With Iran, Russia Stands Aside as Israel Attacks. Despite its strategic alliance with Iran, Russia has remained militarily neutral as Israel strikes Iranian nuclear and military targets. Though President Vladimir Putin condemned the attacks and offered mediation, Moscow has prioritized its own interests—namely, maintaining stability in the Middle East and focusing on the war in Ukraine. The recently ratified Russia-Iran strategic partnership lacks a mutual defense clause, and analysts note that Moscow is unwilling to risk alienating Gulf allies or triggering confrontation with the U.S. Putin instead sees value in presenting Russia as a mediator, even offering to store Iran’s enriched uranium as part of future nuclear negotiations. However, Russia’s limited arms support and reluctance to engage militarily expose the fragility of its regional influence and deepens Iranian mistrust. For now, the Kremlin benefits from global distraction and rising oil prices, but its passive stance could weaken its long-term leverage in both Tehran and the broader Middle East. New York TimesDeutsche Welle

Iran leader Khamenei sees his inner circle hollowed out by Israel. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has suffered a devastating blow to his inner circle, with Israeli strikes killing key Revolutionary Guard commanders, including Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and Mohammad Kazemi. These losses have left Khamenei, 86, increasingly isolated and raised fears of strategic miscalculations. While still surrounded by political and diplomatic advisors, his son Mojtaba has become a central figure, coordinating across Iran’s power structure. Despite being cautious and committed to regime survival, Khamenei now faces one of the Islamic Republic’s most perilous moments amid war with Israel, deepening economic hardship, and the collapse of allies like Hezbollah’s leader and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Reuters

Houthi official says group will intervene to support Iran against Israel.On Tuesday, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior member of Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement, told Al Jazeera Mubasher TV that the group will support Iran against Israel, just as it did for Palestinians in Gaza. He confirmed ongoing coordination with Tehran during the current military escalation. This follows a Sunday Houthi announcement claiming attacks on Israel were carried out in coordination with Iran—the first public admission of such joint action by an Iran-aligned group. Reuters

Mapping the conflict between Israel and Iran. Israel’s surprise strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure have triggered a severe escalation, with Iran launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli cities. While Israel's layered missile defense—Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems—has intercepted many, Iranian projectiles have penetrated defenses, killing at least 24 civilians and damaging critical infrastructure. Israel claims to have destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missile launchers and now asserts control of Iranian airspace. Tehran’s response has been weakened by the loss of regional allies and depleted long-range missile stockpiles. Still, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claims to have used new tactics to evade Israeli defenses. As civilian casualties mount on both sides, Israel warns that further attacks will lead to intensified retaliation, with Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening to “burn Tehran.” Maps and imagery show extensive damage in both capitals, underscoring the scale and danger of the widening conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump has called for mass evacuations in Tehran. Reuters

Why the Strait of Hormuz is critical to global oil supplies.The Strait of Hormuz, a 33-kilometer-wide passage between Iran and Oman, is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint. Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and fuels pass through it daily, primarily bound for Asia—especially China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which collectively receive nearly 70% of these shipments. Hostilities between Iran and Israel have heightened fears of disruption, although no major attacks have occurred so far. Electronic interference and rising shipping costs signal increasing risk. A closure could trigger a spike in oil prices and provoke U.S. military intervention. Iran also relies on the strait for its own oil exports, making closure self-damaging. Gulf nations, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have limited alternative routes to bypass the Strait, but only about 2.6 million barrels per day could be rerouted, far below current volumes. Deutsche Welle

UAE rescues 24 from burning oil tanker after ship collision. Two oil tankers collided Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United Arab Emirates National Guard to rescue 24 crew members from the tanker Adalynn, which caught fire after striking the Front Eagle, managed by Hong Kong-based Anglo Eastern. The incident, 22 nautical miles from Khor Fakkan, was not security-related, according to British firm Ambrey. The Front Eagle also experienced a deck fire, but both crews were safely evacuated. The collision raised further concerns about the stability of this vital oil transit route amid regional tensions. Deutsche WelleAssociated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

China’s got the world in a rare earth choke hold. China is leveraging its dominance over rare earth minerals to gain strategic advantage amid intensifying global trade tensions, especially with the U.S. and European Union. President Trump recently celebrated a draft deal with Beijing, which includes China agreeing to supply rare earth elements essential to American industries, in exchange for Washington scrapping plans to revoke Chinese student visas. However, European leaders remain wary, accusing China of “weaponizing” its monopoly on critical minerals like those used in green energy, defense, and tech. China currently controls over 90% of global rare earth refining and nearly all of the EU’s supply, having built this dominance over decades. Recent export controls, applied to all countries, have disrupted supply chains and heightened concerns across Western industries. Though the bloc is trying to diversify sources and increase domestic production, reducing reliance on China could take decades. Meanwhile, a confident Beijing is expanding its control further along the minerals value chain, strengthening its geopolitical edge. Politico EU

Is North Korea boosting its nuclear capabilities? The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that North Korea is constructing a new facility at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, with features resembling the Kangson enrichment plant, heightening concerns about Pyongyang’s expanding nuclear capabilities. Satellite imagery and analysis suggest North Korea is increasing its production infrastructure, including possible underground radioactive waste storage. Despite already possessing an operational nuclear arsenal, leader Kim Jong Un appears intent on further nuclear development as a safeguard for regime survival. A recent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report estimates North Korea has 50 nuclear warheads and the capacity for up to 90. Experts suggest Pyongyang may be preparing for a strategic shift — either to deter U.S. intervention or to force negotiations. Kim's growing ties with Russia have emboldened him, contributing to regional anxieties. While some in South Korea support developing their own nuclear deterrent, practical and diplomatic costs make such a move unlikely for now, despite the North’s aggressive trajectory. Deutsche Welle

Taiwan seals Ukraine combat-tested drone software deal to help deter China. Taiwan has partnered with U.S.-German firm Auterion to integrate combat-tested drone software, used by Ukraine against Russia, into its defense strategy against growing Chinese military threats. The deal, signed with Taiwan's National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, aims to build a large autonomous drone fleet capable of deterring and damaging high-value targets like tanks and ships. Auterion expects the partnership to involve millions of drones and generate hundreds of millions in value over several years. Inspired by Ukraine’s use of drones in asymmetric warfare, Taiwan is accelerating efforts to modernize its forces with agile, lower-cost systems. At a sea drone exhibition in Suao, officials displayed drones for both explosive attacks and reconnaissance. Chung-Shan’s president thanked foreign companies for participating and, acknowledging likely Chinese sanctions, encouraged them for siding with democracy. Reuters

AFRICA

A look at Mali after five years of military rule.Since taking power through coups in 2020 and 2021, Malian military leader Assimi Goita has postponed elections, extended his presidency to 2030, and quashed opposition voices. Despite justifying the takeover with promises to defeat jihadists, violence has intensified, with terrorism spreading rapidly across the country. While the army—backed by Russian Wagner mercenaries—retook the city of Kidal in 2023, Islamist and Tuareg rebel attacks have continued. In 2025, the regime dissolved all political parties, silenced dissent, and detained activists and journalists, prompting fears of rising dictatorship. Despite human rights abuses and economic strain—including inflation, power shortages, and unpopular taxes—some Malians still support the government, viewing it as a break from a corrupt, pro-French elite. Corruption perceptions have improved slightly, but economic progress remains limited. Western nations have pulled back engagement, while Russia deepens ties. The education sector, among others, is suffering from stalled reforms and shrinking international support. Deutsche Welle

Mali’s ruling junta launches construction of Russia-backed gold refinery. Mali’s military government, determined to assert greater control over its natural resources, began constructing a new Russia-backed gold refinery on June 16. The 200-ton capacity facility, located in Senou near Bamako, will be built with Russia's Yadran Group and a Swiss investment firm, with Mali holding a controlling stake. President Assimi Goita says the project is part of broader reforms mandating local gold processing to increase revenue and economic benefits. Once operational, the refinery will process all of Mali’s gold and potentially serve neighboring countries like Burkina Faso. The move reflects a regional trend, as Guinea, Niger, and Burkina Faso also revise mining codes to promote domestic refining. The project comes amid rising tensions with Western companies, including a legal dispute with Canadian miner Barrick. Goita stressed the refinery’s role in curbing gold smuggling and enhancing export traceability, as West Africa continues to lack certified refining infrastructure despite its vast gold output. ReutersBBCRFI

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Israel-linked hacking group claims disruptive cyberattack on Iranian bank network. Predatory Sparrow, a hacking group reportedly with links to Israeli intelligence, has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on Bank Sepah, an Iranian bank, in retaliation for the institution's alleged role in financing Iran's military and nuclear programs. Customer services were disrupted by the attack, with impacts on account access, withdrawals, and card payments, according to media outlets affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The disruption may have extended to Iranian gas stations, which rely on Bank Sepah to process transactions. Several Bank Sepah branches were closed following the cyberattack, while some government staff and security personnel reported delays in salary payments. In a statement on X, Predatory Sparrow hackers said they destroyed the bank's infrastructure with help from "brave Iranians." The statement went on to say, "This is what happens to institutions dedicated to maintaining the dictator's terrorist fantasies." Security experts say the conflict has expanded into cyberspace, triggering attacks by state-backed hackers and affiliated hacktivist groups. Some pro-Iran groups have warned neighboring countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, that support for Israel could lead to cyberattacks on national infrastructure. The RecordCyberScoopBloomberg

Cybersecurity experts warn U.S. organizations to adopt ‘high alert’ to possible Iranian cyberattacks. Cybersecurity experts are warning that a less visible, but still destructive, digital conflict is unfolding between Israel and Iran as airstrikes and missile attacks continue between the two countries. The cybersecurity community sees the potential of disruptions to critical infrastructure, commercial networks, and global supply chains. Experts are urging U.S. businesses to be vigilant for potential Iranian cyberattacks on domestic infrastructure. The U.S. response to the military conflict is seen as determining the scale and nature of potential Iranian cyberattacks on American organizations. Gil Messing, chief of staff at Israel-based Check Point Software Technologies, told Axios that several disinformation campaigns apparently originating with Iranian-linked actors were launched in the days following the strikes. Typical of these disinformation operations, Messing said, was a text message sent to thousands of Israelis warning that fuel supplies would be halted at gas stations for 24 hours. Another message carried a fake warning of a possible terrorist attack at a regional shelter, urging recipients to avoid the area in an apparent attempt to sow panic during missile attacks. Messing added that lower-level cyber activity potentially linked to Iran, including DDoS attacks and phishing campaigns, have been observed. Looking ahead, experts expect increased activity from politically motivated hackers as happened in the aftermath of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Axios Wall Street Journal

US-China Tech Fight Widens After Taiwan Blacklists Huawei.Taiwan has blacklisted Chinese tech giants Huawei and SMIC, aligning with a long-running U.S. push to curb China’s semiconductor ambitions. This marks Taipei’s first use of its entity list against major Chinese firms and signals a shift away from years of economic cooperation. The move follows U.S. pressure under both the Trump and Biden administrations to tighten enforcement of chip export controls. While the blacklist may not immediately disrupt business—since many Taiwanese firms operate through mainland subsidiaries—it reflects President Lai Ching-te’s broader goal of reducing economic dependence on China and countering Beijing’s influence. The decision also highlights rising cross-Strait tensions, with China accusing Lai of fueling regional instability. Despite Beijing's condemnation, Taiwan is signaling deeper alignment with U.S. tech policy, suggesting further restrictions may follow. The move underscores a new era of strategic tech competition, as Taiwan distances itself economically and politically from the Asian giant. Bloomberg

Amazon CEO Jassy informs employees that AI will reduce its workforce. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told employees on Tuesday that artificial intelligence will reduce the company’s corporate workforce in the coming years, citing efficiency gains across operations. In a memo that was also posted publicly, Jassy said AI will streamline both software development and warehouse logistics, including inventory and robotics. While AI adoption has boosted productivity, it has also renewed fears about job losses. Other tech leaders, including Anthropic’s CEO, have warned of rising unemployment due to AI. Economists note past automation waves had mixed impacts, but recent job declines in programming suggest this AI wave may be different. Jassy urged employees to embrace AI, saying those who adapt will thrive at Amazon. The memo comes amid broader tech industry layoffs and Amazon’s cost-cutting efforts under Jassy’s leadership. Though the company touts its AI tools and services, employees report that quiet layoffs and hiring freezes have already become common in recent years.Washington PostCNBCCNN

Chinese intelligence investments in AI focus on boosting analysis, developing wartime plans. Chinese intelligence services have made substantial investments in AI to accelerate analysis, provide early threat warnings, and develop operational wartime plans. In arriving at these findings, Recorded Future's Insikt Group reviewed patent applications by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), publicly available contracts, and other material to gain insights into AI investment patterns and trends in China's military and intelligence services. Recorded Future researchers assessed that China is likely using a variety of large language models (LLMs) to analyze vast data stores and render results in coherent forms. Recorded Future uncovered specific examples of how Chinese intelligence could be using LLMs and generative AI not only to improve analysis, but also to enhance targeting and operational plans for military commanders. Zoe Haver, the author of the study and a senior Insikt Group threat analyst, cited the example of a patent application filed by the Ordnance Science and Research Academy of China that focused on using various forms of intelligence to train a military model. The application described ways that the model could be used to develop operational plans and assist battlefield intelligence analysts in analyzing friendly and enemy forces. Haver described the project as “very broad ranging and intended to be applicable across the intelligence cycle." New York Times

The S&P 500 Is Nearing a Record. Really. Despite rising geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and a major war between Israel and Iran, U.S. stocks are climbing, with the S&P 500 only 2.6% below its record high. This "reluctant rally" has been driven by delayed tariffs, resilient economic data, and strong tech performance, particularly from a few dominant firms like Nvidia and Meta. However, under the surface, investors remain wary. Derivatives markets show increased hedging against future drops, and government bond yields have surged amid concerns over the $35 trillion U.S. debt and fiscal policy. Oil prices are also rising due to Middle East instability, threatening to reignite inflation and stall Fed rate cuts. Additionally, widening gaps between Treasury yields and “risk-free” benchmarks like SOFR signal deeper investor unease. While markets appear calm now, analysts warn that volatility and a correction could hit in the second half of 2025 as risks mount across multiple fronts. New York Times

China Is Unleashing a New Export Shock on the World. A new wave of Chinese exports—dubbed the "second China shock"—is reshaping global trade, as Chinese manufacturers flood international markets with low-cost goods to offset weak domestic demand and a collapsing property sector. With U.S. tariffs under President Trump cutting China off from its largest market, Chinese exports have surged to countries like Germany, Brazil, and Indonesia, creating economic disruption and political tension. China’s trade surplus has soared nearly 40% this year, as its government-backed manufacturing drive overproduces everything from toys to electric vehicles. Countries receiving this export deluge now face tough choices: impose tariffs and risk backlash from either China or the U.S., or allow local industries to be overwhelmed. While some nations benefit from diverted investment, others are seeing job losses and factory closures. China’s evolving industrial model—combining high-tech and low-end production—challenges conventional economic development theory and adds pressure to a world already navigating geopolitical and trade realignments. New York Times

Government reports says April blackout in Spain and Portugal was caused by 'voltage surge'. A Spanish government report released Tuesday revealed that a major blackout on April 28 across Spain and Portugal was caused by a voltage surge that triggered a chain reaction of protective shutdowns in the power grid. The outage, which lasted over 10 hours, disrupted transport, communications, and businesses. Energy Minister Sara Aagesen said the surge originated in southern Spain and was worsened by technical faults, programming errors, and poor planning. Large gas and nuclear plants failed to cushion the surge, and grid operator Red Electrica did not activate enough thermal plants in time. While some questioned Spain’s reliance on renewables, officials dismissed that as a cause and ruled out cyberattacks. The government plans to strengthen grid stability and improve integration with the broader European network. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez reaffirmed commitment to energy transition, despite the blackout being one of Europe's worst in history. Deutsche WelleThe GuardianAssociated Press

Swedish military joins Telia, Ericsson to boost defense tech.The Swedish Armed Forces have joined the NorthStar 5G innovation program, launched by telecom operator Telia and equipment maker Ericsson, to enhance military communications, logistics, and NATO interoperability. The move reflects growing urgency amid geopolitical tensions and Sweden’s recent NATO membership. Brigadier-General Mattias Hanson said Sweden must accelerate innovation, especially in drone communications, by integrating civilian technologies like 5G with military systems. While the military has its own networks, it plans to combine radio, satellite, fiber, and 5G for greater resilience. Stockholm currently spends 2.7% of its GDP on defense and aims for 3.5% by 2030. The initiative also seeks collaboration with startups to rapidly develop solutions for modern military challenges. European nations have intensified defense efforts as the U.S. under President Trump signals reduced security guarantees, prompting Sweden and others to invest in faster, more flexible, and tech-integrated military infrastructure. Reuters

Chinese research team builds world’s first 6G military jamming, communications weapon. A new electronic warfare (EW) weapon, reportedly highly effective against modern military radars, has been developed by Chinese researchers. The system employs a next-generation 6G signal processing mechanism that is said to master high-frequency spectrums with precision. With its photon-powered core, it can intercept signals and generate thousands of false targets to confuse enemy pilots. In addition to its primary role as a ground-based jammer, the weapon can also serve as a powerful communication device, with the ability to receive and transmit large amounts of battlefield data to more than 300 optic-fiber-linked platforms. The system's dual role is the world's first application achieving “simultaneous same-frequency full-duplex communication and jamming capabilities." The project, led by a professor at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, is funded by national research programs and People’s Liberation Army partnerships, with investments of $10 million allocated for laboratory experiments and industrial applications. South China Morning Post

Huawei, ByteDance pursue data center, AI project expansion in Brazil. Huawei and ByteDance, two of China's advanced tech firms, are planning to invest heavily in Brazil's cloud infrastructure and AI sectors. The moves by the tech giants are likely to deepen U.S concerns about the expanding Chinese digital presence in Latin America. Huawei is reportedly set to announce a deal with the Brazilian state-run technology firm, Dataprev, to utilize its data centers. Talks are also underway between Huawei and Edge UOL, a cloud services arm of Grupo UOL PagSeguro. Huawei Cloud division Latin America president Mark Chen said, “We want to be the bridge between China and Latin America,” adding that it sees Edge UOL as a "strategic service partner." ByteDance also reportedly is considering new Brazilian data center initiatives, along with a project involving a 300-megawatt data facility with renewable energy provider Casa dos Ventos. The Chinese firms' interest in Brazilian partnerships comes on the heels of an AI cooperation agreement that was signed last year during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Brasilia. South China Morning Post

Nvidia will participate in Beijing supply chain exhibition for the first time. Nvidia will make its first appearance as an exhibitor at what is described as a "flagship supply chain event" in China. According to the event organizer, Nvidia will be one of 100 exhibitors from the U.S. and Europe attending the China International Supply Chain Expo in July. The release of Nvidia's new AI chip for the Chinese market, the B30, is planned for July, coinciding with the supply chain expo. The participation of U.S. firms has increased by 15 percent this year compared to 2024, a trend reflected in the 3 percent growth of non-mainland Chinese exhibitors at the expo. More than 650 companies, representing digital technology, advanced manufacturing, and smart vehicles, among other sectors, will attend the five-day event in Beijing, which begins on July 16. South China Morning Post

China is on pace to double nuclear power capacity by 2040, bypassing the U.S. A new report from the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA) indicates that China plans to double its nuclear power capacity by 2040, which would make the country the world's largest nuclear power generator. Over the next decade and a half, China is expected to increase its installed capacity to 200 gigawatts through the construction of dozens of new reactors, surpassing the current capacity of the U.S. Approximately half of the 61 nuclear reactors currently under construction are located in China. At the end of 2024, China's 102 reactors had a combined capacity of 113 gigawatts. Ten more reactors were approved by the State Council in April for a combined investment of $27.9 billion. China's current pace of construction will make it the world's largest nuclear power generator in installed capacity by 2030. Xing Ji, chief designer of the third-generation Hualong One reactor, stated last week that the “higher safety standards” of Chinese reactors indicate that China could further accelerate its nuclear power expansion if necessary. South China Morning Post

Microsoft, OpenAI partnership challenged by ‘for-profit’ status, rival AI products. Tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft MSFT are escalating as the tech giant seeks to gain Microsoft's approval for its conversion into a for-profit company and to revise certain parts of the partnership agreement. Negotiations between the two firms have been challenging, leading OpenAI executives to consider the drastic step of accusing Microsoft of anticompetitive behavior during their partnership. If pursued, this action by OpenAI could trigger a federal regulatory review of the contract terms for potential antitrust law violations. The move would threaten the partners' six-year relationship, which has been described as "a long-term, productive partnership that has delivered amazing AI tools for everyone.” OpenAI and Microsoft are at odds over the terms of the startup’s $3 billion acquisition of the Windsurf AI coding startup. OpenAI aims to prevent Microsoft from accessing WindSurf's intellectual property, given Microsoft's rival AI coding product, GitHub Copilot. Wall Street Journal TechCrunch

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Executive Editor

Ethan Masucol, Assistant Editor

Brian Bonner, Senior Contributor

Ken Hughes, Tech & Cyber Contributor

Katharine Campbell, Writer, Contributor

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief