9:22 America/New York Friday, June 20
Report for Friday, June 20, 2025
- Trump Buys Himself Time, and Opens Up Some New Options
- U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb
- Israel strikes unfinished Arak heavy water reactor in Iran
- Washington has had it with Andriy Yermak
- Space Force is contracting with SpaceX for new, secretive MILNET SATCOM network
CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES
The Next War Won’t Target Cities, It Will Target Choke Points. Dr. Dave Venable argues that critical infrastructure—cloud systems, energy networks, undersea cables, and satellites—has become the modern battlefield in a new era of strategic disruption. Western optimization for efficiency has created fragile chokepoints vulnerable to cyberattacks and systemic failure. Citing examples like Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink, the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, and the SolarWinds breach, Venable highlights how adversaries are exploiting these vulnerabilities to disrupt rather than destroy. He stresses that state and non-state actors, including China and Russia, have embraced low-cost, high-impact tactics to quietly undermine stability. Venable calls for a comprehensive doctrine of resilience centered on diversification, redundancy, and graceful degradation. He proposes steps such as mapping critical chokepoints, enforcing resilient design, and integrating infrastructure defense into alliances like NATO and the EU. Resilience, he argues, is now a form of strategic power—capable of resisting disruption and maintaining operational continuity. “Friction,” in this context, is the new firepower essential to national defense. The Cipher Brief
THE AMERICAS
Trump Buys Himself Time, and Opens Up Some New Options. President Trump’s unexpected announcement that he’ll wait up to two weeks before deciding whether to join Israel in its escalating conflict with Iran is being framed as a diplomatic pause. However, the delay also enables the U.S. and Israel to bolster military preparations, including the deployment of a second U.S. aircraft carrier and further strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel’s recent bombing campaign has devastated key Iranian sites, potentially shifting the diplomatic landscape but also risking hardening Iran’s stance. Some believe Trump’s delay could be a strategic decision; Admiral James Stavridis said the president’s comments could be a “ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency.” Meanwhile, Trump faces political pressure at home, with some allies urging restraint and others demanding decisive military action. As diplomacy continues through backchannels, the window Trump has opened may either de-escalate the crisis—or lead to full-scale war. New York Times
Appeals Court Lets Trump Keep Control of California National Guard in L.A. A federal appeals court has allowed President Trump to continue using the National Guard in Los Angeles to respond to immigration protests, reversing a lower court ruling that had ordered him to return control of the troops to California Governor Gavin Newsom. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals found that conditions in Los Angeles justified the president’s decision to federalize the Guard, citing disruptions to immigration enforcement. While rejecting the Trump administration’s argument that such actions are beyond judicial review, the court emphasized the need for deference to the president’s authority in this context. The ruling allows Trump to maintain control of about 4,000 Guard troops and 700 Marines, though broader legal challenges continue. California officials argue Trump’s actions are unconstitutional and inflame tensions. Further court hearings on restricting troop activities are scheduled. New York TimesWall Street Journal
ICE Imposes New Rules on Congressional Visits.The Department of Homeland Security has issued new restrictions on congressional visits to immigration facilities, escalating tensions with Democratic lawmakers. Despite federal law allowing members of Congress to conduct unannounced oversight visits, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) now requests 72 hours’ notice, while DHS suggests a full week is needed. The new policy also gives ICE broad authority to deny or cancel visits due to “operational concerns” and claims field offices are exempt from oversight rules—though these often hold detainees for days. Democratic lawmakers, including Senators and Representatives, have recently been blocked from accessing ICE facilities, prompting accusations that the administration is obstructing constitutional oversight. Critics argue the restrictions are meant to shield abusive practices, and experts say the move to block lawmakers is illegal. DHS defends them as necessary for safety amid political disruptions and alleged assaults by officials. New York TimesWashington PostLos Angeles Times
Lockheed seeks European partners for missile production crunch. In response to surging demand driven by the war in Ukraine, Lockheed Martin is significantly expanding production of ground-based missile systems and munitions, with a focus on boosting output and establishing manufacturing operations in Europe. Executives said the company is exploring partnerships and facilities in countries like Poland and the UK for systems such as the Javelin missile and the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS), aiming to produce 14,000 GMLRS units this year. Lockheed is also increasing Patriot PAC-3 missile production and considering a new European site, while the U.S. Army seeks a second supplier for the missile’s seeker component. HIMARS launcher production has doubled, and Lockheed is building units in advance of orders for the first time. Simultaneously, the company is modernizing systems with innovations like data-linked targeting to reduce costs and enhance battlefield versatility. Breaking Defense
Army promises to deliver analysis on sweeping changes in 10 days. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll pledged to deliver a detailed explanation within 10 days on the decisions behind the Army Transformation Initiative (ATI), which includes command consolidations, formation restructuring, and the cancellation or overhaul of 12 major weapons programs. The initiative aims to reallocate $48 billion over five years toward technologies that will make the Army more agile and lethal. However, lawmakers expressed frustration over the lack of transparent analysis, especially concerning cuts to joint programs like the M10 Booker light tank, and Robotic Combat Vehicle. Senators, including Chris Coons and Mitch McConnell, criticized the absence of data on the impact to industry, other services, and allies. Driscoll admitted key decisions were made in a small circle to avoid institutional resistance, and revealed other services were only consulted just before or after the public announcement. Defense NewsTHE UKRAINE UPDATE
Zelensky says Russia is trying to save the Iranian nuclear program. In his Thursday night address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of actively trying to save Iran’s nuclear program to enable its allies to continue exporting war. He described Russia’s efforts—both public and covert—as cynical attempts to preserve aggressive regimes like those in Iran and North Korea. Zelensky linked Iran’s Shahab missiles and North Korean-supplied weapons to attacks on Ukraine, arguing that global solidarity has so far been insufficient. He called for tougher sanctions and enhanced technological cooperation among democracies, noting Ukraine had reached such agreements at the recent G7 summit in Canada. Zelensky also condemned Russia’s June 17 missile strike on Kyiv that killed 30 and wounded 172, labeling it a deliberate act of terror. Ukrinform
General David Petraeus (Ret.)
2025 Kyiv Security Forum
'Massive' Russian drone attacks on residential buildings in Odesa kill 1, injure 14. Russian forces launched a massive overnight drone attack on Odesa on Friday, killing one civilian and injuring at least 14 others, including three firefighters. The strikes hit over 10 targets, including seven residential buildings, triggering major fires. A 23-story apartment building caught fire on the upper floors, prompting the evacuation of more than 600 people. In a separate blaze at a four-story building, collapsing debris injured three emergency responders. Odesa’s central train station also sustained damage. The port city has been repeatedly targeted during the war, with escalating Russian strikes despite rejecting ceasefire efforts. Casualty figures may rise as rescue operations continue. Kyiv Independent
Russian losses 'entirely justified,' Zelensky says, as death toll in Tuesday’s massive strike on Kyiv rises to 30, with 172 injured. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that continued Russian losses are "entirely justified" in response to Moscow’s escalating attacks, including a June 17 missile and drone barrage on Kyiv that killed 30 and wounded 172. Zelensky condemned the strike as “deliberate terror,” rejecting claims it targeted military infrastructure. He urged tougher Western sanctions and revealed meetings with Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) on conducting deep strikes into Russia. Highlighting Operation Spiderweb—a major June 1 drone strike damaging 41 Russian aircraft—Zelensky stressed Ukraine’s growing long-range strike capabilities. Moscow has refused to accept Kyiv’s repeated ceasefire offers. Russia, facing rising battlefield losses, reportedly suffered over 1 million casualties since the full-scale invasion began, according to Ukrainian sources. Kyiv Independent
Washington has had it with Andriy Yermak. Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is increasingly viewed as a liability in Washington. U.S. officials from both the Trump and Biden administrations have found Yermak abrasive, politically tone-deaf, and overly demanding. Critics argue that he misinterprets American political dynamics and undermines U.S.-Ukraine communication. Some also worry he has not accurately conveyed U.S. positions to the leadership back in Ukraine. His recent trip to Washington was perceived as disorganized and lacking a clear purpose. He met with cold shoulders from Trump administration officials, including meetings that were canceled or denied. Some say Yermak has accused U.S. officials of being Russian sympathizers. Although he defends his methods as focused on Ukraine’s survival, insiders worry his presence could damage Kyiv’s relationship with its top military and financial backer. While some allies defend Yermak’s diplomatic role, frustration is mounting in D.C. that his style may embolden anti-Ukraine voices and weaken Western support at a time of increasing pressure from the Trump administration for Ukraine to negotiate. Politico
Zelensky appoints new commander of Ukraine's land forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday appointed Hennadiy Shapovalov as the new commander of Ukraine's land forces, replacing Mykhailo Drapatyi, who resigned following a deadly Russian strike on a training area. Shapovalov previously served at a NATO coordination center in Germany and commanded Operational Command South. Zelensky emphasized the need for reforms and said Shapovalov’s NATO experience would be critical. Drapatyi was reassigned as commander of Ukraine’s joint forces in a broader military reshuffle. Reuters
This Oregon Native Went to Kyiv as a Volunteer. He Died in a Russian Attack. Fred Grandy, a 61-year-old American from Oregon, was killed in Tuesday’s massive Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv that left at least 30 dead. It is thought that Mr. Grandy is the first American killed in aerial strikes in Kyiv. Upset by what he saw as the U.S. abandoning Ukraine under President Trump, Grandy traveled to Kyiv in May to volunteer, clearing rubble from bomb sites. Known for crafting whimsical wooden signs and colorful metal flowers, he sought to support Ukraine's resistance. He was staying in a hotel and working with a charity when he died from shrapnel wounds in one of the war’s deadliest assaults on the capital. Grandy, remembered as quirky, compassionate, and creative, appears to be the first American civilian killed in an airstrike in Kyiv. His family said he believed in standing up to bullies and wanted to help a country fighting for its survival. Despite lacking wealth or political experience, he offered what he could—his presence, effort, and care—in a time of war. New York Times
Trump's peace push falters in both Ukraine and the Middle East — for similar reasons. President Donald Trump’s peace efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East have faltered, with both conflicts intensifying under his leadership. Analysts attribute this to a chaotic, performative, and partisan approach lacking strategy or diplomatic substance. In Ukraine, Trump has pressured Kyiv more than Moscow, withheld military aid, and entertained concessions to Russia, including recognition of Crimea’s annexation. His aides have demonstrated a limited understanding of regional dynamics, further eroding his credibility. In the Middle East, Trump’s support for Israel has undercut mediation efforts. Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon collapsed due to a lack of U.S. follow-through and unwillingness to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump initially tried to mediate between Israel and Iran, but quickly backed Israel’s June 13 strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Experts warn that Trump's approach prioritizes optics and domestic politics over real diplomacy, weakening U.S. influence and emboldening hardliners in both Russia and Israel. His unpredictability has destabilized U.S. foreign policy. Kyiv Independent
There are lots of videos of Israeli air defenses, and none of Ukraine's — this is why. The abundance of dramatic air defense footage from Israel and the lack of similar visuals from Ukraine stem from stark differences in military policy, geography, and risk. Israel allows public filming of its sophisticated air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, which are densely deployed due to the country's small size and advanced, domestically developed technology. In contrast, Ukraine strictly prohibits the filming of air defense activity. Sharing such videos could expose critical positions to Russian forces, as Ukraine relies on a limited mix of Western-supplied and Soviet-era systems, with only a handful of modern Patriots in operation. Ukrainian law imposes criminal penalties—up to 12 years in prison—for revealing defense locations. Because Ukraine’s vast territory is harder to defend and air defense assets are scarce and vital, secrecy is essential. As a result, while Israeli skies are filled with viral videos of intercepts, Ukraine’s defense efforts remain largely unseen to protect operational security. Kyiv independent
From unity to uncertainty: Central Europe reconsiders its Ukraine stance. Support for Ukraine in Central and Eastern Europe is weakening amid rising populism, domestic fatigue, and shifting political winds. Poland remains a committed ally, but President-elect Karol Nawrocki has taken a more critical tone, contrasting with the pro-Kyiv government. Slovakia, under the populist leadership of Robert Fico, has shifted strongly towards a pro-Russian stance, halting military aid and aligning with Moscow. Romania narrowly avoided electing a pro-Russian president, but right-wing anti-Ukrainian sentiment is growing. Moldova’s pro-European Union leadership remains intact, but faces a tough parliamentary election against a pro-Russian coalition. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán may face a challenge from Peter Magyar in 2026, whose stance on Ukraine is unclear. Czechia, a key arms supplier, could pivot if populist Andrej Babis returns to power, with potential far-right coalition partners threatening pro-Ukraine policies. While Ukraine still has regional allies, the overall trend reflects a decline in unity as nationalist forces gain ground across the region. Kyiv Independent
Baltics, Nordics, and Poland propose a Schengen ban for Russians who fought in Ukraine. A coalition of European Union countries—including the Baltic states, Nordic nations, and Poland—is pushing to bar Russian citizens who participated in the war against Ukraine from entering the Schengen Area, citing security concerns. At a June 19 meeting in Tallinn, interior ministers issued a joint statement declaring such individuals a threat and vowing to deny them visas and residence permits, even after hostilities end. The move comes amid rising fears over Russian hybrid warfare, including sabotage and arson attacks in Europe. Latvia has been especially vocal, calling for a complete suspension of visa issuance for Russians, citing a 25% increase in Schengen approvals in 2024. Several EU nations, including Latvia, Estonia, and the Czech Republic, have already enacted national restrictions. Polish and Czech officials are also tightening controls on Russian diplomats, suspecting espionage activities under the guise of diplomatic cover. The proposal reflects a growing push for unified EU action against Russian infiltration. Kyiv Independent
Russia's war-fueled economy is running on empty, Central Bank chief warns.Russia’s economy is teetering on the edge of recession, according to top officials at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned of a downturn driven by weakening growth, high interest rates, and mounting inflation. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in Q1 2025, while industrial output stagnates and business profits, especially in oil and gas, have dropped sharply. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said wartime growth—fueled by “free resources” like labor, capital reserves, and sovereign wealth—has exhausted itself. Labor shortages, supply constraints, and defense spending have strained the system. Unemployment is at a historic low of 2.3%, but mass emigration and mobilization have left a gap of 2 million workers. Officials face a dilemma: continue funding the war in Ukraine or stabilize the economy. Early hopes of recovery are fading under sanctions, inflation, and reduced investment, raising fears of a deeper economic contraction. Kyiv IndependentMoscow Times
Russia says it expects agreement next week on date for next peace talks with Ukraine. Russia expects to set a date for a third round of peace talks with Ukraine next week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday. Talks resumed in May after a three-year hiatus, resulting in prisoner exchanges but no progress on a ceasefire. Russia demands a final settlement, while Ukraine and its Western allies seek an immediate ceasefire. Reuters
Ukraine and Russia exchange POWs in latest swap.Ukraine and Russia conducted a new prisoner of war (POW) exchange under a prior agreement reached in Istanbul. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shared images of returning troops, many of whom had been held since the early stages of the 2022 invasion. Ukraine said the released POWs were sick or injured. Both sides withheld the number of prisoners exchanged. The swaps remain one of the few areas of cooperation amid stalled peace talks. Reuters
Russian Occupation Update for Thursday, June 19. Russia continues to deepen its occupation of Ukrainian territories through child deportation, tourism promotion, and economic integration. Occupation authorities are sending thousands of Ukrainian children from Kherson Oblast to Russian summer camps under the guise of cultural and recreational programs, which experts say aim to indoctrinate and erase Ukrainian identity, potentially violating international law. Simultaneously, Russian officials are promoting occupied regions as tourist destinations, encouraging rural tourism to stimulate local economies and further integrate occupied areas through infrastructure projects, such as the Novorossiya highway. At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Russian leaders pushed for increased investment in occupied territories, highlighting the establishment of 120,000 small and medium businesses in Donbas and "Novorossiya." Efforts include expanding the free economic zone (FEZ) to offer tax and insurance incentives, as well as fostering dependency on Russian companies. These strategies reinforce Russia’s long-term plans to assimilate occupied Ukrainian lands politically, economically, and culturally into the Russian state. Institute for the Study of War
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, June 19. Over the past year, Western efforts have failed to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon his belief that Russia can win a war of attrition in Ukraine through sustained, incremental advances. Putin's theory of victory relies heavily on the assumption that Ukraine cannot retake lost territory and that Western support will wane before Russia's capacity to sustain the war does. He continues to employ reflexive control tactics to dissuade further Western military aid to Ukraine and downplay the threat posed by NATO rearmament, while tailoring his messaging to different international audiences. Putin declared he would not sign a peace agreement with President Volodymyr Zelensky, falsely claiming Zelensky and his government are illegitimate under Ukrainian law. In a meeting with international journalists, Putin recycled familiar Kremlin narratives, including blaming the West for provoking the war and misrepresenting the Minsk accords. Russian economic leaders acknowledged growing challenges, with officials warning of exhausted resources, labor shortages, and a looming recession despite attempts to maintain optimism.
Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka. Institute for the Study of WarEUROPE
Trying to Satisfy Trump, NATO Is Running Into Difficulties. As NATO leaders prepare for their June 24-25 summit, much of the agenda is shaped by a desire to appease U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly his demand that allies increase their military spending to 5% of GDP. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has proposed a compromise that redefines defense spending to include “military-adjacent” investments like infrastructure and education, aiming to satisfy Trump without overburdening member states. However, this has led to confusion and disagreement among allies over spending definitions, timelines, and whether aid to Ukraine should count. Many countries, including Germany and Luxembourg, question the utility of arbitrary targets, while others worry about watering down core defense capabilities. Eastern NATO members want quicker action due to perceived threats from Russia, but even key contributors like Britain and the U.S. fall short of Trump’s 5% demand. Rutte’s strategy reflects a balancing act: meeting political optics while preserving alliance cohesion and avoiding internal friction at a pivotal moment. New York Times
Spain seeks an exemption from the NATO defense spending target increase. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez asked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Thursday to exempt Spain from the alliance’s proposed 5% GDP defense spending target. Sanchez reportedly asked for a "more flexible formula" to opt out Spain or make the target optional. Currently, Spain spends just 1.28% of its GDP, according to NATO estimates. President Donald Trump proposed the 5% guideline in January as part of efforts to get allies to take on more of the NATO defense burden. No NATO member currently reaches 5% spending, with the U.S. hitting around 3.4% in 2024, according to NATO. Rutte proposed that the 5% goal can include 3.5% on defense spending and an additional 1.5% on security-related spending, ranging from military infrastructure to cybersecurity. Spain’s position threatens the adoption of the increase at next week’s NATO summit, as any rise in defense spending requires the unanimous approval of the 32 NATO members. Politico
Nick Fishwick
The Cipher Brief: When It Comes to Security and Defense, Can Europe Go It Alone?
Norway to meet 5% NATO goal on defense, security spending, prime minister says. Norway announced plans to raise its defense and security spending to 5% of GDP, aligning with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s proposed alliance-wide target ahead of the June 24–25 NATO summit in The Hague. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere said Norway will allocate 3.5% of GDP to traditional defense, including aid to Ukraine, and 1.5% to broader security efforts. This marks a significant increase from 2.2% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2022. Norway, which borders Russia, aims to meet the 5% target in the years after 2030. Stoere emphasized the need for a well-equipped, reliable defense and expressed hope for consensus on the target despite Spain’s request to opt out. Notably, Norway is the only European country able to finance such increases without borrowing, thanks to its nearly $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund. The announcement reflects broader European efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. security guarantees. Reuters
Italy, pressed to boost defense spending, lashes at 'stupid' EU rules. Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti criticized European Union budget rules as “stupid and senseless,” arguing they hinder Italy’s ability to increase defense spending amid growing NATO and EU pressure. While Brussels has proposed allowing members to boost defense budgets by 1.5% of GDP annually without triggering penalties, countries like Italy—already under EU infringement procedures for high deficits—are excluded from this flexibility. Italy fears that using the clause could jeopardize its plan to reduce its deficit to 2.8% of GDP by 2026 and damage market confidence. Giorgetti emphasized the need to update the rules in light of the current security crisis. Italy prefers a joint EU debt issuance to fund increased military spending, but would need wider bloc support. A NATO summit next week is expected to raise the defense spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP, further escalating the pressure. Reuters
Orbán’s anti-Ukraine campaign targets political rival as Hungary’s elections loom.As Hungary prepares for national elections in 2026, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is intensifying an anti-Ukraine campaign to bolster support amid declining poll numbers. Diverging from European Union consensus, Orbán opposes military aid to Kyiv, rejects Ukraine’s EU accession, and claims it threatens Hungary’s sovereignty and economy. He accuses opposition leader Péter Magyar and his Tisza party of conspiring with Ukraine to install a pro-Western government—claims widely seen as politically motivated. Orbán has even released AI-generated videos warning of Hungarian troops dying in Ukraine. The Hungarian government’s messaging, reinforced by a state-funded media blitz, portrays Ukraine and EU leaders as existential threats. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have condemned Orbán’s tactics as dishonest and anti-European. Analysts warn Orbán is using authoritarian rhetoric to discredit political opponents as pro-Ukraine agents, as tensions between Kyiv and Budapest rise following recent diplomatic expulsions and espionage accusations. Associated Press
How Belarus dissidents in exile abroad are pursued and threatened. Belarusian dissidents living in exile are increasingly being targeted by the Lukashenko regime, which seeks to silence critics abroad through threats, harassment, and pressure on their families. Since the brutal crackdown following the widely condemned 2020 election, hundreds of thousands have fled. Exiles like journalist Tatsiana Ashurkevich and opposition aide Anna Krasulina report intimidation, unsolicited messages, and even retaliatory actions against relatives in Belarus. The regime uses legal tools—like trials in absentia and charges of extremism—to justify raids and seizures. Many now avoid protests abroad to protect loved ones at home. Analysts say these tactics reflect Soviet-style repression adapted with modern technology. The aim, experts warn, is to sever ties between activists and their homeland, exhausting and isolating them through a sustained "war of attrition.” BBC
German defense start-up Helsing raises € 600 million in latest investment round. German defense start-up Helsing has raised €600 million ($693 million) in a major funding round led by Prima Materia, the investment firm founded by Spotify's Daniel Ek and Shakil Khan. The round boosts Helsing’s valuation to $12 billion, placing it among Europe’s top five private tech companies, according to the Financial Times. Other backers include Lightspeed Ventures, Accel, Plural, General Catalyst, and defense firm SAAB. Based in Munich, Helsing develops AI-powered defense software and is expanding into drone, aircraft, and submarine production as global defense budgets surge amid rising geopolitical tensions. ReutersTHE MIDDLE EAST
Israel strikes unfinished Arak heavy water reactor in Iran. On Thursday Israeli jets bombed Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, claiming it was part of a nuclear weapons program. Israel said the strike targeted the reactor’s core to prevent plutonium production. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that no nuclear material was present at the site, which was under construction. Iran had agreed under the 2015 nuclear deal to disable Arak’s weapons-grade capabilities, and the reactor was due to become operational by 2026. Satellite imagery confirmed heavy damage to both the reactor and nearby heavy water facilities. Israel also struck the Natanz enrichment site and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. Civilian casualties in Iran have reportedly reached 639, while Israeli authorities say 24 people have died from counterattacks. The U.S. has not yet joined militarily but is reportedly considering targeting Fordo, the Islamic Republic’s most fortified nuclear site. BBC
Largely Sidelined on Iran, Europe Makes a Late Push for Diplomacy. As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, key European powers are pushing for diplomacy to prevent a regional war. Foreign ministers from Britain, France, Germany, and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas plan to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Friday. They hope to revive talks and avoid U.S. military involvement, which President Trump is still weighing. While the Europeans have little sway over Trump or Israel, they are urging restraint and a return to diplomacy, fearing a broader conflict that could disrupt oil markets, drive migration to Europe, damage energy infrastructure, and cut off the Strait of Hormuz. The remaining enforcement tools of the 2015 nuclear deal, such as snapback sanctions, may soon expire, heightening the urgency of diplomatic efforts. New York Times
U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb. U.S. intelligence agencies still assess that Iran has not decided whether to build a nuclear bomb, despite having amassed enough enriched uranium to do so. This view, unchanged since March, comes as Israel escalates strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and President Trump considers bombing the Fordo facility. American officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, warn that Iran could quickly move to weaponize its uranium if provoked, especially by a U.S. military strike or the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Israeli intelligence estimates Iran could make a bomb in 15 days, but some U.S. analysts suggest it could likely take months, depending on the complexity of the weapon. While Iran’s uranium is enriched to 60%, making a bomb requires further enrichment and weaponization. Officials agree Iran is close to having the capacity, but there’s no evidence it has decided to take that final step. New York Times
Israel claims Iran launched a cluster bomb-bearing missile at civilians. Israel claimed that Iran launched a missile Thursday that dispersed cluster munitions over a civilian area, marking the first reported use of such weapons in the week-old conflict. The missile reportedly released about 20 submunitions over central Israel, one of which struck a home in Azor. No casualties were reported. Israeli officials condemned the attack as a deliberate attempt to maximize civilian harm, noting that cluster bombs scatter over wide areas and often leave unexploded ordnance. Iran has not responded to the accusation. Neither Iran, Israel, nor the U.S. has signed the 2008 international ban on cluster munitions. The weapons are controversial due to their indiscriminate effects and long-term danger to civilians, especially when used in populated areas. South China Morning PostNew York TimesTimes of Israel
Israeli defense chief says Iran leader ‘cannot continue to exist’. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz asserted on Thursday that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “cannot continue to exist,” aligning with recent threats from U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Katz made the statement while visiting the site of Iranian missile strikes near Tel Aviv, after an attack damaged a major hospital in the southern city of Beersheba, wounding 240 people. Katz also called Khamenei “cowardly” and vowed accountability. He compared “dictator” Khamenei to “a modern Hitler” and did not rule out targeting him, citing the leader’s support for the “destruction of Israel.” Although Trump reportedly warned the state against assassinating Khamenei, he has called the ayatollah an “easy target.” The HillTimes of IsraelPolitico
Israeli defense minister warns Hezbollah against joining conflict with Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Lebanon's Hezbollah to exercise caution on Friday, saying Israel's patience with "terrorists" who threaten it had worn thin. The head of Iran-backed Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, said on Thursday that the Lebanese group would act as it saw fit in the face of what he called "brutal Israeli-American aggression" against Iran. In other statements, the group has made no explicit pledge to join the fighting and a Hezbollah official told Reuters last week that the group did not intend to initiate attacks against Israel. Reuters
The implosion of Iran’s ‘no war, no peace’ strategy.Iran’s longstanding “no war, no peace” doctrine—marked by aggressive posturing, proxy warfare, and conflict avoidance—has collapsed amid escalating conflict with Israel. Triggered by Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack, which Iran supported indirectly, Israel has launched a sweeping offensive, striking deep into Iranian territory and decimating military infrastructure. Analysts say Tehran misjudged Israel’s post-attack risk tolerance, assuming its trauma would deter retaliation. Instead, Israel gained air dominance, disrupted Iran’s command structures, and degraded missile defenses. Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have been hesitant or ineffective, weakening the so-called "axis of resistance" built by Qassem Soleimani. Iran’s strategic overstretch, coupled with underinvestment in air defenses, has left the regime vulnerable. If the U.S. enters the war, Tehran may strike Gulf targets, but risks a severe U.S.-led backlash. With its deterrence shattered and options dwindling, Iran now faces a war it cannot win and likely unfavorable terms in future nuclear negotiations. Financial Times
What are the nuclear contamination risks from Israel’s attacks on Iran? Israel’s campaign against Iran’s nuclear program has so far targeted major sites in Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, and Tehran, aiming to prevent the regime from developing a nuclear weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed damage to several facilities but reported no radiation release, as key sites, such as Arak, are not yet operational. Experts say the fallout risks from the current strikes are low, with most hazards being chemical rather than radiological. However, a strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant — which was mistakenly reported as hit by Israeli strikes on Thursday — could trigger a severe radiological catastrophe, especially affecting Gulf waters. This poses a major concern for states, such as the UAE and Qatar, that are heavily dependent on desalinated potable water from the Gulf, raising fears of regional water insecurity and environmental disaster. South China Morning Post
How the US has shifted military jets and ships in the Middle East. The U.S. is increasing its military presence in the Middle East to defend Israel from Iranian missile attacks and prepare for possible escalation. President Trump has suggested the U.S. could use the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bomb on underground nuclear sites, which only Washington can deploy via B-2 stealth bombers. Though no B-2s are currently in the region, other aircraft, including F-16s, have been repositioned, and American warships are intercepting Iranian missiles, including the USS The Sullivans and the USS Arleigh Burke. Officials have not disclosed specific numbers, but fighter jets and refueling tankers have been sent to the Middle East, as well as locations in England, Spain, Germany and Greece. Troop levels have risen to 40,000, and bases are on high alert. While the U.S. has not launched offensive strikes, its deployments are aimed at deterring further Iranian aggression and protecting personnel and assets. Associated PressDefense News
What is Iran’s secretive Fordow site? Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, buried deep under a mountain, is now at the center of the Israel-Iran conflict as the U.S. considers aiding Israel in disabling Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. The site, fortified beneath 300 feet of rock, is beyond Israel’s strike capacity, but vulnerable to U.S. bunker-busting bombs. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest report confirms Fordow houses enough centrifuges and uranium hexafluoride to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, making it a critical site for any nuclear weapons effort. Revealed by President Obama in 2009, Fordow has operated with limited international oversight since Iran removed IAEA monitoring equipment in 2022. Analysts warn that recent Israeli strikes may have pushed the Islamic Republic closer to pursuing nuclear weapons, given its exposed military vulnerabilities and the breakdown of ongoing nuclear talks. The Hill
In Crisis With Iran, U.S. Military Officials Focus on Strait of Hormuz. U.S. military officials are preparing for the possibility that Tehran may move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if Washington joins Israel’s attacks on Iran. The strait, a critical choke point for global oil and gas shipments, could be mined by Iran’s navy, which retains the capability to do so despite recent Israeli strikes; while Israel has damaged much of Iran’s missile arsenal, it has not targeted naval assets. Mining the strait would disrupt global energy supplies, trap American ships, and likely trigger a strong U.S. military response. Iran’s naval mines range from small limpet mines to advanced bottom mines with powerful sensors. U.S. minesweepers and divers, based in Bahrain, are on alert for such a threat, though clearing the strait would be slow and dangerous. The Islamic Republic is “strategically weaker but operationally still lethal across the region,” warned one expert. New York Times
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Poised for More Power. Israel’s strikes on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have killed key commanders and disrupted military operations, but may also accelerate a dangerous shift in the country’s internal power. With Supreme Leader Khamenei’s authority weakened, the IRGC—already the most powerful institution in Iran—could consolidate control and dictate his successor, possibly leading to a more hardline regime. The Guard’s deep roots in Iran’s military, economy, and society make it uniquely positioned to survive leadership changes and civil unrest. Its paramilitary wing, the Basij, plays a key role in maintaining internal control. Experts warn that regime change could strengthen the Guard’s grip rather than weaken it, potentially triggering a more militant, anti-Western, clerical leadership. The IRGC’s institutional resilience and ideological loyalty could shape Iran’s future in a far more confrontational, reactive direction. Wall Street Journal
Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of protests. As Israel’s strikes on Iran intensify, the country’s opposition groups—both in exile and inside the country—are divided and uncertain about how to respond. While exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi, late shah's son, call for regime change, activists within Iran, including prominent voices like Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi, are hesitant to protest amid the chaos and fear caused by the war. Though Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been severely hit, activists say the public is focused on survival, not uprising. Additionally, the paramilitary wing Basij, which historically counters protestors, is on high alert, determined to safeguard the regime and unmask Israeli spies. Past protests have been driven by varied issues—elections, economic hardship, and women’s rights—but have lacked unified leadership or goals. With the regime weakened but still repressive, and foreign opposition groups lacking credibility, Tehran’s path to change remains fragmented and unstable, despite mounting pressure. Reuters
Australia shuts down Tehran embassy as Iran-Israel conflict escalates. Canberra on Friday announced the suspension of operations at its embassy in Tehran due to worsening security amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that Australian defense personnel and aircraft are being deployed to the Middle East to support evacuation plans, not for combat. Around 2,000 Australians in Iran have requested assistance to leave. A crisis team is being sent to Azerbaijan to help citizens exit Iran via land borders. Ambassador Ian McConville will remain in the region to assist. Wong emphasized the risks to foreign officials during unrest and confirmed that no request for military support was made during her call with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Reuters
Oil Tanker Collision Near Strait of Hormuz Raises Security Fears. A collision between two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday has heightened concerns over maritime safety amid growing regional tensions. The UAE attributed the incident, which caused a small oil spill, to navigational errors. One tanker, the Adalynn, collided with the Front Eagle, sparking a fire and prompting the evacuation of 24 crew members. No injuries were reported. The incident occurred as reports of GPS interference in the area surged, with analysts calling it “electronic warfare.” Military-grade spoofers have reportedly caused ships to receive false coordinates, increasing collision risks. Environmental group Greenpeace said satellite images show a six-square-mile oil slick. As tensions rise between Iran and Israel, freight rates have doubled, and shipping companies are increasingly wary of passing through the vital energy corridor. New York Times
Israel’s War on Iran Is Costing Hundreds of Millions of Dollars a Day. Israel’s war with Iran is costing the country hundreds of millions of dollars per day, straining its economy and pushing leaders to consider the limits of a prolonged conflict. The biggest expense comes from air-defense interceptors—some, such as Arrow 3, costing up to $4 million each—as Iran has launched over 400 missiles. Additional costs include operating F-35 jets, ammunition, and unprecedented, extensive damage to civilian infrastructure. Experts estimate the war could total $12 billion if it lasts a month. Although markets remain stable and economists don’t yet predict a recession, the economic disruption is significant: thousands evacuated, businesses shuttered, schools closed, and key infrastructure, like oil refineries, damaged. With rising costs and civilian strain, pressure is mounting on Israel to achieve its goals quickly and avoid a prolonged conflict. Wall Street Journal
Situation at Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant is 'normal,' Russian official says. A Russian nuclear energy official said on Friday that operations at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant remain “normal” and under control, despite recent tensions. Israel had mistakenly claimed it struck the Russian-built facility, later retracting the statement. The official warned that any real attack could risk a disaster similar to Chernobyl. Russia has around 600 staff at Bushehr, including 250 permanent workers. Some non-essential personnel have been evacuated, but core staff remain. The chief said that the plant is in “pre-mobilization mode,” suggesting readiness for further evacuation if needed. Russia has received assurances from Israel about the safety of its personnel and continues to warn against U.S. military involvement in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Reuters
Pro-Palestinian activists say they damaged planes at UK military base. Activists from the group Palestine Action broke into the Royal Air Force base at Brize Norton in Oxfordshire on Friday, damaging two Voyager aircraft used for refueling and transport. The activists sprayed red paint into the aircraft engines and used crowbars to cause further damage. They also defaced the runway and left a Palestinian flag. The group claimed the action was in protest of Britain's role in supporting Israeli military operations, accusing the UK of complicity in alleged war crimes in Gaza. The Ministry of Defence condemned the act as vandalism and is working with police, who are investigating the incident. ReutersBBCThe TelegraphASIA & OCEANIA
China Flexes Chokehold on Rare-Earth Magnets as Exports Plunge in May. China’s exports of rare-earth magnets plunged 74% in May compared to a year earlier, the sharpest drop on record, following Beijing’s new licensing controls on these critical components. Exports to the U.S. fell by 93%, nearly coming to a halt, highlighting China’s dominant role in global rare-earth supply chains. Beijing processes around 90% of the world’s supply. The decline hit industries reliant on these magnets—which are used in electric vehicles, defense systems, and electronics—especially hard. The curbs, introduced in April amid escalating trade tensions, prompted U.S. accusations of slow licensing and led to renewed negotiations. A Geneva truce in May aimed to ease tensions, but exports remain limited. Both sides have since worked on a framework to restore trade flows, expected to ease restrictions while allowing China to retain its licensing system. Key Chinese magnet suppliers have begun receiving limited licenses, but disruptions remain, and U.S. automakers have warned of possible production halts. Wall Street Journal
China’s bet on Iranian oil and Middle East influence turns sour. China’s deep reliance on Iranian oil and its ambitions for Middle East influence are being undermined by the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, threatening its energy security and diplomatic leverage. Beijing has relied on discounted Iranian crude—once supplying up to 15% of its imports—and strengthened ties with Tehran amid U.S. sanctions. However, rising regional instability, including threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, has forced China to reevaluate its energy strategy. Imports from Iran are already declining, and China may need to source more oil and liquefied natural gas from Gulf allies, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, often at higher costs. The crisis is prompting President Xi Jinping to intensify efforts toward energy independence through renewable energy and electrification. Despite China’s efforts to mediate regional disputes and bolster its image as a global peacemaker, its cautious foreign policy and limited influence are being exposed. A weakened Iran could shift regional power dynamics in favor of U.S. influence. Financial Times
China criticizes UK warship's patrol in Taiwan Strait. China has condemned the recent passage of the British warship HMS Spey through the Taiwan Strait as a deliberate provocation, accusing the UK of undermining regional stability. Beijing called the transit a "distortion of legal principles" and warned it would "resolutely counter" any threats. The UK, however, insists the patrol was lawful and part of a pre-planned deployment, emphasizing the right to freedom of navigation under international law. This marks the first such British naval transit in the strait since 2021 and coincides with the arrival of a UK carrier strike group in the Indo-Pacific. Led by the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales, the deployment involves 4,000 UK personnel and aims to reinforce alliances and demonstrate deterrence across the region. Taiwan praised the transit for supporting navigation rights, while China has responded with increased military activity, including dual carrier drills near Japan. BBCReutersTaiwan on high alert amid Chinese carrier exercises. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te put defense and security forces on high alert Thursday as two Chinese aircraft carriers — Shandong and Liaoning — conducted simultaneous operations in the Pacific for the first time. Lai’s office released a statement saying the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a "chain of global security challenges” and that it is notable that “China's military pressure in the entire region of the first and second island chains has not slowed due to the situation in the Middle East.” China's navy said last week the carrier operations were "routine training" exercises that did not target specific countries or regions. Reuters
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
The Cipher Brief: Is War Over Taiwan Inevitable?
China and Central Asian leaders cap summit with friendship pact and aid pledge. At the second China-Central Asia Summit this week, China pledged 1.5 billion yuan ($209 million) in grants for livelihood and development projects across Central Asia and signed a permanent friendship treaty with five Central Asian nations. President Xi Jinping hailed the treaty as a milestone, a part of China’s broader strategy to deepen regional ties. Xi emphasized the importance of cooperation amid global instability and warned against the dangers of trade wars and protectionism. Beijing also announced 3,000 training slots and three cooperation centers focused on poverty reduction, education, and desertification. Beyond infrastructure, Xi promoted joint efforts in clean energy, security, and counterterrorism, especially with Tajikistan. Talks also highlighted increased bilateral trade, AI development, and progress on major projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. China’s role in the region continues to expand economically and strategically. South China Morning Post
China’s influence is growing in Central Asia. What does that mean for Russia? Beijing and five Central Asian nations have reaffirmed their security cooperation amid global instability, raising questions about Russia’s waning regional dominance as it fights in Ukraine. While the Kremlin downplayed concerns this week, experts note that China’s expanding economic presence increasingly overlaps with Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence. Analysts say Beijing respects Russia’s lead in “hard security” through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), but complements it with economic and “soft” security efforts, such as training and regional development. China avoids direct competition, instead reshaping regional dynamics gradually through trade and infrastructure. Security concerns—especially regarding Afghanistan and the Wakhan Corridor—have pushed China to deepen its cooperation with Tajikistan. Despite growing influence, diplomatic observers say China operates under Russia’s security umbrella, expanding its reach without assuming major defense responsibilities. South China Morning Post
Leaders of China, New Zealand discuss trade, Pacific security. Chinese President Xi Jinping and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met in Beijing on Friday to strengthen trade ties and discuss Pacific regional stability. On his first visit to China since taking office in 2023, Luxon emphasized the importance of peace in the Indo-Pacific and Wellington’s support for Pacific-led priorities. The meeting followed concerns over China's recent agreements with the Cook Islands, a small territory with strong ties to New Zealand. Xi called for mutual respect and cooperation, downplaying differences. Both leaders agreed to deepen collaboration in trade, climate, technology, and education. Luxon also secured travel and education pacts and promoted New Zealand's exports, particularly in the meat and dairy sectors. China remains New Zealand’s top trading partner, with exports totaling NZ$20.85 billion in 2024. ReutersAssociated Press
Indonesia inks strategic partnership with Russia. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto signed a strategic partnership agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Thursday, deepening bilateral ties as Indonesia officially joins the BRICS bloc. Prabowo praised the strengthening relationship, citing progress in trade, investment, agriculture, and technical cooperation. Putin welcomed Indonesia as a key Asia-Pacific partner and expressed confidence in its role within BRICS. Both nations agreed to establish a $2.29 billion investment fund through Danantara Indonesia and the Russian Direct Investment Fund. Despite the nation’s growing ties with Moscow, Prabowo maintains a non-aligned foreign policy, seeking cooperation with both the U.S. and Russia. His decision to meet Putin instead of attending the G7 summit raised concerns among Western allies, reflecting Jakarta’s careful diplomatic balancing act. Deutsche WelleReutersAFRICA
Record prices fuel surge in Sudan conflict gold smuggling. Record gold prices are fueling a surge in gold mining and smuggling in Sudan, providing a crucial funding source for both sides of the civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Force (RSF). Gold production reached 80 tons in 2023, valued at over $6 billion, with more than half reportedly smuggled to countries such as the UAE and Russia. Despite initial disruption, mining has rebounded, supported by rising artisanal activity and imports of key chemicals, such as sodium cyanide, from countries including China and the UAE. The RSF controls key gold areas in Darfur, while the SAF oversees larger northern mines. Experts argue that sanctions targeting Sudan’s gold supply chains—particularly chemical imports—could curb funding for the warring parties. However, efforts have been piecemeal, and entrenched militarized networks continue to thrive amid economic collapse. Analysts stress the need for coordinated international action to disrupt conflict gold networks and reduce the war’s financial lifeline. Financial Times
Rwanda arrests opposition leader, says investigative body. Rwandan opposition leader Victoire Ingabire has been arrested in Kigali on charges of inciting public disorder and forming a criminal organization, according to the Rwanda Investigations Bureau. Her arrest comes amid ongoing criticism of President Paul Kagame’s government, which, despite being credited with the country’s post-genocide recovery, faces persistent allegations of human rights abuses and meddling in neighboring Congo—claims Kagame continues to deny. Ingabire previously served six years of a 15-year sentence handed down in 2012 for allegedly conspiring to form an armed group and minimizing the 1994 genocide. Freed in 2018, she now leads the unregistered opposition party DALFA–Umurinzi. Ingabire returned from exile in 2010 to run for president but was barred due to accusations of genocide denial. Reuters
Three decades, one leader - how Eritreans had their hopes dashed. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, once seen as a reformist, has held power for 32 years, dashing early hopes for democracy. Initially praised for his leadership during Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia and pledges of democratic reform, Isaias halted elections and suppressed dissent following a border war in 1998. In 2001, he cracked down on critics, shutting down independent media and imprisoning reformist officials. The constitution ratified in 1997 was never implemented, and government institutions have withered under his centralized rule. Eritrea’s economy remains stagnant, with youth trapped in indefinite national service. Isaias resists foreign aid, citing self-reliance, and has isolated the country diplomatically while aligning with Russia and China. Despite widespread repression, he retains support within the military, ruling party, and parts of the diaspora. With no succession plan or credible opposition, many fear for Eritrea’s future once Isaias, now nearing 80, is no longer in power. Hope for change remains distant. BBCCYBER, TECH & MARKETS
Drone makers battle for air dominance with 'wingman' aircraft. At the Paris Airshow, defense giants and tech startups unveiled a wave of advanced uncrewed aircraft called "wingmen"—autonomous drones designed to fly alongside manned fighter jets. The surge in drone displays reflects their growing role in modern warfare, especially after their effectiveness in Ukraine. The U.S. Air Force's Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program aims to deploy about 1,000 such drones. Anduril showcased its Fury drone, expected to enter production in 2027, and showcased a massive Ohio facility under development. General Atomics presented its YFQ-42A, while Boeing demonstrated its Ghost Bat drones operating with crewed aircraft in a test with Australia. European and Turkish firms also joined the race. Dassault, Airbus, and Indra are working on the Future Combat Air System; Sweden’s Saab and Turkey’s Baykar showed off new models; and Rheinmetall announced a partnership with Anduril to adapt U.S. drones for Europe. Reuters
Defense opportunity could finally make flying taxis a reality. The flying taxi industry is gaining momentum, with U.S. President Donald Trump ordering regulators to expedite certification for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs), aiming to secure U.S. leadership in the technology. At the Paris Airshow, executives from BETA Technologies, Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, and Wisk Aero highlighted defense, emergency services, and cargo transport as promising entry markets. These aircraft offer a quieter and cheaper alternative to helicopters. Defense contracts already total hundreds of millions of dollars, and the U.S. Air Force's Agility Prime Program is a key partner. A new international alliance aims to standardize global certification, with support from key allies such as the UK, Canada, and Australia. Companies are also exploring civilian use cases, such as short-range passenger transport. While public skepticism remains, particularly over automation, industry leaders say cost and performance advantages will drive adoption. Reuters
Chinese cyber threat to Europe on par with Russia’s, warns Czech president. Czech President Petr Pavel has warned that China poses a cyber threat to Europe on par with Russia, following a recent hacking attack on the Czech foreign ministry by APT31, a group linked to China’s state security. While Russia focuses on sabotage, China prioritizes espionage, scanning diplomatic files and gathering data to undermine opponents. Czech officials noted that the attack was enabled by outdated network infrastructure. Prague’s vocal support for Taiwan, including Pavel’s call to Taiwan’s president on his first day in office, has likely drawn China’s attention. Analysts say China’s cyber capabilities have caught up with Russia’s, with the Chinese spy service now driving attacks. Taiwan, a frequent target of Chinese cyber warfare, is cooperating closely with Czech authorities. Officials warn of growing cyber coordination between Moscow and Beijing, raising concerns about joint capabilities and shared tactics in future cyber operations targeting Europe and its allies. Financial Times
China hacking Russian military companies, agencies. Groups linked to the Chinese government have repeatedly hacked Russian companies and government agencies since the start of the Ukraine war, apparently looking for military secrets, the New York Times reports. Cyberanalysts say the hacker activity signals that China regards Russia — which it has a close partnership with — as a vulnerable target. The Times reported that some experts believe China views the Ukraine war as an opportunity to gather information about modern warfare weapons and tactics, as China’s military lacks battlefield experience. A document drafted by Russia’s FSB counterintelligence agency, cited in the report, states that China is seeking Russian defense expertise and technology and is attempting to learn from Russia’s military experience in Ukraine. New York Times
Rear Adm. (Ret.) Mike Studeman
The Cipher Brief: China’s Preparations for a ‘Major-Power War’
Oil set to rise for third week on escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Oil prices dipped on Friday but remained poised for a third consecutive weekly gain, as markets responded to the Trump administration’s delay in deciding whether the U.S. will enter the Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude fell nearly 2% to $77.28 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered around $75.66. Despite the daily decline, Brent was still on track to rise about 4% for the week. Prices surged earlier in the week after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks. Fears of escalation remain high, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil flows. Analysts estimate a $10-per-barrel risk premium is already priced in. Should the conflict disrupt major oil infrastructure or shipping, oil could spike to $100 a barrel, experts warn. For now, cautious optimism holds, but risks of broader regional fallout continue to cloud the outlook. Reuters
Stocks struggle, oil up for 3rd week as Trump weighs US action on Iran. Asian markets edged higher Friday as investor relief set in after signs that a U.S. strike on Iran may not be imminent. Oil prices dipped—Brent crude fell 2.1% to $77.23 per barrel—though weekly gains remain amid ongoing regional conflict. Asian shares gained, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.2% and South Korea’s benchmark surpassing 3,000 for the first time since early 2022, buoyed by a new stimulus plan. Japan’s Nikkei was flat, and China’s central bank held lending rates steady. Currency markets saw the dollar retreat slightly, while the euro and pound rose. U.S. bond yields held mostly steady in Asia after being closed for the Juneteenth holiday. Global central banks offered mixed signals, with Switzerland cutting rates to zero and Norway surprising markets with a rate cut. Gold fell 0.5% and is heading for a weekly loss. Reuters
China cuts US Treasury stockpiles to 16-year low amid Trump’s trade war. China cut its U.S. Treasury holdings to $757 billion in April—the lowest level since March 2009—as tensions with Washington escalated amid a trade war. This marked the second monthly decline and continued a longer-term retreat that began during Trump’s first presidency. Concerns are growing in Beijing over the security of Chinese assets held abroad, particularly after the U.S. froze Russian assets following the Ukraine invasion. At a recent forum, Chinese central bank officials expressed support for a more multipolar financial system and raised doubts about the long-term dominance of the U.S. dollar. Despite China’s pullback, total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries remained strong at $9.01 trillion, with Japan, the U.K., and Belgium increasing their investments. South China Morning Post
SpaceX Starship rocket explodes in setback to Musk's Mars mission. SpaceX's Starship spacecraft exploded during testing at its Texas Starbase on Wednesday night, marking the latest setback in Elon Musk's Mars-focused rocket program. The blast occurred while the vehicle was on a test stand preparing for its tenth flight. SpaceX cited a “major anomaly,” and Musk suggested a failure in a nitrogen gas storage unit (COPV) might be the cause. No injuries were reported. This follows a series of Starship failures, including multiple in-flight explosions and loss of control incidents. In May, the rocket spun out mid-flight, failing key test goals. Earlier, another Starship broke up over the Caribbean, forcing air traffic disruptions. Despite regulatory reviews and corrective measures, the Starship program continues to face significant engineering and safety challenges. CNNReutersBBC
Space Force is contracting with SpaceX for new, secretive MILNET SATCOM network. The U.S. Space Force is partnering with SpaceX to build MILNET, a classified low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite communications network of over 480 satellites. Operated by SpaceX but overseen by Space Force’s Delta 8, MILNET will form part of a larger hybrid mesh network that integrates commercial and military satellites for secure, resilient data transport. The satellites will use Starshield terminals, an encrypted military variant of SpaceX’s Starlink technology. MILNET is also linked to other Defense Department programs, including the $13 billion Proliferated LEO Satellite Services program, and will feature Enterprise Space Terminals (ESTs) to enable high-speed space-based data links. Though largely secret until now, MILNET is believed to be part of a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO)-managed contract with SpaceX to support U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations in space. Breaking DefenseREPORT INFO
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