Peace talks between the Saudi Arabians – who support the internationally recognized government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi in Yemen – and the Houthis were set to begin Monday, after a UN-backed ceasefire went into effect April 10. But fighting has not ceased and the peace talks have been delayed. Yemeni journalist Nasser Arrabyee, who is based in the capital Sana’a, tells The Cipher Brief nothing will change until the Saudis stop their aggression.
The Cipher Brief: The warring parties in Yemen agreed to a ceasefire at midnight on April 10 ahead of a new round of peace talks that were set to start April 18 in Kuwait. What is the current situation on the ground? Will the ceasefire hold? Why haven’t past ceasefires held?
Nasser Arrabyee: The current situation (as of April 18) is that the fighting continues on all fronts, with Saudi fighter jets flying over the capital Sana’a around the clock and bombing everywhere, killing people asleep in their houses and working on their farms, in factories, schools, hospitals, etc., and obliterating the already weak infrastructure. There has been no change at all since the Saudi bombing campaign started at dawn on March 26, 2015 with shockingly unjustified support of the Obama administration.
No previous truce or ceasefire has held even for minutes, and this alleged ceasefire did not hold even for seconds after the UN declared it on April 10. It's not holding now, and it will not hold at all until there is a complete halt of the U.S.-backed Saudi aggression on Yemen.
Furthermore, I can confidently say, there have been no actual truces or ceasefires at all in the past. This current ceasefire is also a joke and the planned Kuwait negotiations are just a Saudi trick to reduce the pressure from free and independent media and human rights groups who see real war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide crimes being committed against Yemenis almost daily by Saudi war criminals.
So why is this ceasefire not holding and why have the past ceasefires not held? The main, and maybe the only, reason why previous ceasefires and truces failed is the same reason why this one is not holding. It is Saudi Arabia and only Saudi Arabia: The war is between Yemen patriotic forces and Saudi Arabia forces and its "allies" and mercenaries from all over the world. When one of these “ceasefires” or “truces” is declared, Saudi Arabia is the first to say it supports the ceasefire between Yemen’s legitimate government and the Houthis. The Saudi so-called "Yemen government" is a group of Yemeni exiled people languishing in luxurious hotels in Riyadh. They are not in any way the fighters on the ground; they are not even the leaders of these fighters. They are merely “the internationally recognized government.” So, Saudi Arabia is the real one who is fighting in Yemen, with Yemenis defending themselves. When Saudi Arabia wants to stop the war, it can stop it in minutes.
TCB: The peace talks were supposed to begin April 18. What does each side want? How do you expect the talks to progress?
NA: Nothing happened in Kuwait on April 18. The Yemenis (that is the Houthis and their allies) refuse to go until Saudi aggression stops. Nothing will happen until the Saudis stop their aggression on Yemen or the would-be king Mohammed Bin Salman comes to Sana’a and establishes a luxurious palace and rules as a U.S.-backed occupier.
TCB: Will Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi retain power or will there be a new person selected for the presidency?
NA: Hadi will not continue. Hadi failed to be a president during his two-year term and failed again when the UN extended his term an additional year. Then, he resigned, and declared in front of the world that his resignation was final, and he would not change his mind. Then, he escaped, and surrendered himself to the Saudis who use him for obliterating his country. Moreover, Hadi has no popular support in Yemen, neither in the south where he is from, nor in the north. He was elected in one-candidate elections in 2012 as a compromised president. If he had any kind of popularity, say 15 percent, that would be enough to help the Saudis finish its war (given the Saudis advanced weapons, and armies and mercenaries from all over the world). The Saudis want to finish the war as soon as possible to appear as heroes, especially after they told President Barack Obama it would only take five to 10 days at most.
TCB: How has al-Qaeda in Yemen benefitted from the conflict? Have they conquered more territory and increased their influence?
NA: The big winners from the U.S.-backed Saudi aggression on Yemen are al-Qaeda and ISIS. Some of al-Qaeda’s leaders are now in the luxurious hotels of Riyadh, where they are not hiding or escaping arrest as they were before leaving Yemen.
Al-Qaeda’s leaders who remained in Yemen are fighting on at least eleven fronts with Saudi weapons, Saudi F-16s, and Saudi money. Khaled Ba Tarfi, a top leader of al-Qaeda, confirmed in his first speech after they took over the Republican Palace of Mukalla in April 2015 that they are fighting against the Houthis, backed by former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, on eleven fronts, including Taiz and Mareb (the main fronts of the Saudi forces until now).
The leaders who fled to Riyadh probably keep reassuring Saudi officials that there will be no problem at all if al-Qaeda takes all the provinces of Yemen from the Shiite Houthis because we are all Sunnis. The cleric Abdul Majid al-Zandani is one these leaders in Riyadh now collecting money from the Saudi government and Saudi charities who have been eager to help him. Al-Zandani is designated by the U.S. and UN as a global terrorist. Al-Zandani kept fighting in Taiz for months before he disguised himself and escaped to Saudi Arabia in the middle of 2015.
The second famous example of al-Qaeda leaders now in Riyadh is Abdul Wahab al-Humaikani, a graduate from the al-Zandani religious university, Al Eman university (closed now in Sana’a and all of Yemen). Humaikani is the top leader of the recently established "political" party of Al Rashad. He was designated by the U.S. Treasury Department a global al-Qaeda financier, raising funds from Qatar and other gulf countries for al-Qaeda terrorist operations. The interesting story about this man is that Saudi Arabia sent him to Geneva to represent what it called Yemen’s legitimate government, and he went and shook hands with the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon.
So, because of these two leaders and many others, al-Qaeda and ISIS have been expanding everywhere in Yemen.
TCB: Could resolving the conflict in Yemen calm tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
NA: Saudi tension with Iran will never calm down by resolving the Yemeni conflict. Saudi aggression in Yemen was not because of Iran’s increasing influence in Yemen, as the Saudis say. Iran will never ever come to Yemen and would not be accepted even if it tried to. Saudi Arabian influence in Yemen is the biggest of all. There can be no comparison between Saudi Arabia and Iran in terms of influence. Saudi Arabia is closer, wealthier, and has the same language, traditions, and customs as Yemen.
Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen and is now obliterating it only to scare Iran, especially after the Iranian nuclear deal with the six major powers. And Obama is still waiting for the end of the 10-day long war that he approved to appease the angry ally of the oil money. Another reason for Saudi aggression is to promote King Mohammed Bin Salman, who needs to show power internally more than externally.
TCB: How do people in Yemen view the U.S.? Do they think the U.S. is a major player in the conflict on the side of the Saudis?
NA: The majority of Yemenis view America as the killer of Yemenis. Everybody knows that this devastating and unjustifiable war was declared from Washington, and all its support is from Obama, who needed to appease and placate Saudi Arabia, the big ally of oil money, without paying attention to the fact that he is destroying the sublime values of America—values of justice, freedom, human rights, and democracy. Huge posters in the main streets of the capital Sana’a read, "America Kills Yemeni People."
The only glimmer of hope that things may return to normal between Yemen and America comes from the actions and words of the brave and free people of America who publicly condemn the Saudi aggression on Yemen—the senators, the human rights activists, and the writers who encourage Yemenis to not lose hope in the American values that attract the admiration of many Yemenis who struggle to follow suit.
