In his first news conference since July, President-elect Donald Trump revealed he now agrees with the unanimous verdict of the U.S. intelligence community: Russia was behind the hack on the Democratic National Committee (DNC). "I think it was Russia," he said (though he later caveated “but you know what, it could have been others also.”)
According to Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin "should not be doing it. He won't be doing it. Russia will have much greater respect for our country when I am leading it than when other people have led it."
However, with only a handful of days left before his inauguration, Trump’s direction for U.S. policy on Russia is as murky as ever. In the same news conference, the president-elect went on to say “if Putin likes Donald Trump, guess what, folks? That’s called an asset, not a liability.” In many ways, his statements establish a wide spectrum in which to pursue Russia policy when he takes office on January 20th.
The track record of U.S. presidents with Putin is not a stellar one. George W. Bush came to rue his 2001 statement that when he met Putin and looked into his eyes, he “was able to get a sense of his soul.” Over the course of his two terms, Bush would become increasingly vexed by his dealings with the Russian leader as Putin centralized power, cracked down on the press, and paved the way for the Russian invasion of Georgia in August 2008 under Dmitri Medvedev, Putin’s hand-picked successor as President of the Russian Federation.
For his part, President Obama sought a Russian “reset.” Early achievements—the New START nuclear disarmament treaty and cooperation on denuclearizing Iran—were overshadowed by the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the resulting sanctions by the U.S. and European Union. Obama’s last policy directed toward Russia may very well be the increased sanctions and expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats, issued in response to the DNC hack and the harassment of U.S. diplomats in Russia. In a final slight, Putin did not respond in kind, signaling that he would no longer deal with the lame duck president.
Discussing the relationship between U.S. presidents and the Kremlin, Cipher Brief experts John Sipher and Steve Hall, both former members of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service and Russia experts, remarked “each new Administration assumes that the failure to deal effectively with Russia is the fault of the previous occupant of the West Wing.”
Trump will need a running start on several ongoing issues with Russia: the hacking of the DNC, combating ISIS, and the annexation of Crimea. To do so, he will have a spectrum of policy options available to him.
If Trump wishes to attempt an engaging approach akin to a reset, he could start by giving more credence to Russia’s global role. Former Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst told The Cipher Brief “he can invite President Putin to an early summit of the two great nuclear powers to discuss security in Europe and Eurasia and the Middle East” and added he should “take measures to ensure that he can meet with Mr. Putin from a position of strength.” From here, the United States and Russia could pursue a settlement over Ukraine in return for the lifting of sanctions.
Conversely, a tougher approach could allow the incoming administration to change the tone of U.S.-Russia relations. Michael Kofman, a research scientist at CNA and fellow at the Wilson Center told the Cipher Brief “Trump's leverage lies principally in changing the existing dynamic that the U.S. fears Russian escalation far more than Moscow fears U.S. retaliation,” and added “until Moscow gets a better sense of Trump the President, it will assume that the present advantage in escalation has eroded.” Only with such new footing, in the view of Kofman, could a Trump administration take on the multiple contentious issues in the relationship.
Whatever the course, the Trump administration should bear in mind three important points. First, any long term plan for Russian policy should provide real solutions for Russian interests—a diplomatic quid pro quo. As Kofman put it, it is “not possible to work with another major power under the rubric of engaging on issues of interest to yourself, but not taking seriously any of their core interests – at least not for very long.”
Second, the experience and failures of previous presidents offers an opportunity to learn and avoid the mistakes of the past. As Sipher and Hall put it, “the new President should not fall victim to the view that Russia is a country on the rise, and that the U.S. needs to accommodate the new reality.”
Finally, through various statements, like those in the news conference, Trump has stated he believes that he could get Putin to like him or respect him. These are not the same thing, and he is unlikely to get both.
Will Edwards is an international producer at The Cipher Brief. Follow him on Twitter @_wedwards.
