OPINION — Counterintelligence is one of the most vital functions of the intelligence community, helping protect against foreign threats. Counterintelligence washeavily emphasized during the Cold War, as spying and unregistered foreign agents were at an all-time high across various regions. Over the past several years, numerous investigations, scandals, and reports have surfaced across North America and Europe revealing how foreign governments have influenced politicians and placed agents in key areas of intelligence and daily life, subverting Western counterintelligence efforts.
The signs are clear that counterintelligence is in a downward spiral, leading to major security failures and breaches. How and why is this happening?
A New Axis and Effective Hybrid Warfare
Over the past decade, numerous figures in Europe and America were investigated or found to have major ties to foreign intelligence agencies. Unregistered foreign agents became even more evident in 2022 as the Russian invasion of Ukraine became a full-scale war.
Russia is at the forefront of a new axis that isleading hybrid and information warfare efforts—pushing disinformation and placing agents across various Western institutions to dissuade a united front against the Kremlin’s goals.
Russian influence and sabotage operations have gained steam since 2016, asnumerous populist movements—such asBrexit, theAmerican isolationist movement, and far-right parties in Europe— have surged, many of which have allegedly received funding from the Kremlin itself.
Throughhybrid warfare, the Kremlin seeks to control the narrative. One method Russia uses is trafficking migrants from Africa and the Middle East and sending them to Europe via the Mediterranean or Eastern borders of the continent. The Kremlin aims to overwhelm the European social system by trafficking migrants towards hot spots such asFinland and Lithuania and propping up juntas in Africa that force migrants to flee to Italy, Spain, and Greece. From there,anti-immigration parties and populist movements gain momentum and come to power. Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Austria, and France all facea wave of populist movements with governments with alleged ties to the Kremlin. China and Iran also have growing influence, particularly in Hungary, which is quickly becoming a potential “Trojan horse” within the EU and NATO.
A Breakdown of Infiltration by Foreign Governments
Numerous scandals, saboteur acts, and links to Russian foreign intelligence have beenrecorded in theUK, Spain, Germany, Czechia, Poland, Bulgaria, Albania, and Montenegro. Recent FBI and DOJdocuments show how Russian information warfare can spread misinformation and disinformation in the US via alternative media channels.
German politicians in the pro-Russian AfD, SPD, and CDU havecome under fire for potential influence related to Russian energy, and the rulingFidesz party of Hungary has all but isolated the Central European nation due to its close ties with the Kremlin.
The Chinese government hasramped up foreign intelligence operations by placing unregistered foreign agents and intelligence operatives whotarget dissidents in the United States. They also seek to influence day-to-day policies, as seen with thearrest of Linda Sun, a major former aide to NY Governor Hochul.
Pro-Mullah Iranian agents have also beenactive in Europe, America, and Western-aligned countries in the Middle East—targeting dissidents and potentially using information warfare to further inflame tensions amid Israel’s ongoing wars against Hamas and Hezbollah. A recentkidnapping and murder of a prominent Chabad Israeli rabbi in the UAE has only heightened the sense of urgency for the need for more counterintelligence operations.
The Cipher Brief brings expert-level context to national and global security stories. It’s never been more important to understand what’s happening in the world. Upgrade your access to exclusive content by becoming a subscriber.
What Went Wrong With Counterintelligence?
The beginning of the U.S. government's negligence toward counterintelligence efforts started when the Soviet Union fell, after which there was no true rival to the United States until China's sharpeconomic and military boom in the early 2000s.
Another major turning point was the U.S. invasion of Iraq. When the world sawWMD lies by various Western heads of state to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq, citizens started to lose faith in their governments, allowing foreign rivals to use information and hybrid warfare to subvert democracies. Against the backdrop of governments' and media organizations'lack of faith, rival countries such as Russia, China, and Iranhave invested in media misinformation and disinformation. Today, media organizations such as RT have been flagged by the West for being anarm of the Kremlin, and TikTok is currently being discussed in a potential ban forBeijing-linked spyware and disinformation.
Likewise, allied countries are also allegedly subverting Western counterintelligence capabilities, such as Turkey, which is accused oftargeting dissidents in Europe and the United States. NYC Mayor Eric Adams faces chargesrelated to working with the Turkish government and acting on influence, such as digressing away fromArmenian Genocide recognition in the city. Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are also allegedly subvert counterintelligence to target dissidents, seen, for example, inRiyadh’s brutal murder of Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi and Qatar's alleged influence in university protests in the U.S.
Potential Solutions
Now more than ever, Western governments should renew their emphasis on funding and growing counterintelligence capabilities to thwart foreign interference, alongsideenhancing ongoing joint intelligence efforts through allies such as Five Eyes,
A main factor of infiltration of foreign governments includes using our own freedom of rights against us. With investigations taking years to conclude due to legislative pushbacks or measures, rival agencies look to subvert this.
A comprehensive counterintelligence focus is needed as the world enters a period of potential global conflict. Perhaps the West should again utilize counterspy doctrines of the Cold War era to mitigate looming threats and enhance counterintelligence efforts.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
