Attacks like Saturday’s one in London trigger information-sharing between allies, as well as domestic procedures to secure the homeland. Is there a concern about copycat attacks? What types of measures could U.S. authorities take? The Cipher Brief’s Leone Lakhani asked Todd Rosenblum, former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense and Americas' Security Affairs.
The Cipher Brief: The latest incident in London comes just after the Manchester attack. What struck you about this one?
Todd Rosenblum: The speed of movement from ideation to action. We do not know how long these three killers discussed the attack, and whether they received external, operational guidance. But much like school shootings increasing the probability of more school shootings, it is possible Manchester inspired the London killers.
The London attack was not complex; it was killers acting out a sick fantasy. My hope is that the London Muslim community speaks out against the killers invoking Islam to justify their violence, just as the Manchester Muslim community did, and as we expect the Caucasian community to condemn white nationalist violence.
TCB: How does the U.S. Intelligence Community react to news such as this? Walk our readers through the first few days in the U.S. government after an event like this.
TR: Immediate steps begin with confirming what is and what is not known, and pushing that information up, down, and across the interagency. This fact-finding is the purview of law enforcement and intelligence. Next steps normally include convening policymakers and information providers for a briefing of the facts and discussion at the White House about what to do, what to say, and whom to speak to.
Once done, we would expect the president and senior administration officials in the national security community to make public statements and reach out to the victimized country to offer support and assistance.
Simultaneously, our Intelligence Community, especially experts in digital information, will surge to see if there are any known linkages to the homeland. The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) would take the lead in working with state, local, private sector, faith-based and community organizations to harden potential targets at home and see if there is more to learn from these vital partnerships.
A government’s credibility in crises is vital, and it is essential that government actions be informed, judicious, and planned.
TCB: Would there now be counter-intel/terror coordination and cooperation with other countries including the U.S., even after the Manchester police expressed frustration over U.S. media leaks about that attack?
TR: Absolutely. International cooperation on counterterrorism is essential to shared security. Tactical and operational cooperation continues regardless of temporary pique at the political level or uncertainty about the president’s veracity. U.S. intelligence cooperation exists in varying degrees of strategic trust. U.S.-UK intelligence and law enforcement cooperation is as deep as it gets. The U.S. law enforcement and intelligence communities will even share data with nations that are not allies, if sources and methods can be shrouded and the sharing advances our interests. We regularly share curated information with on-again, off-again allies like Pakistan, if there are possible links and potential action of mutual benefit.
TCB: Over the past 2-3 years, we’ve seen lone wolves attacking soft targets with easily obtainable weapons – vehicles, knives, and guns. After so many instances, have we made any progress in combatting the lone wolf phenomenon? Is this the new normal?
TR: Simple plots against soft targets is the new normal in Europe, and to a lesser extent, the United States. There was a time when terrorist organizations like al Qaeda viewed these kind of attacks as “beneath” their strategic objectives. ISIS has a different approach. It encourages individuals to attack children, schools, social gatherings, and civilians to, in its view, sow fear, mistrust, and disruption in the West. It favors quantity.
I do not like the term “lone wolf” because it implies individuals acting in an absolute vacuum. In almost every case, violent extremists are inspired by alienation, ideology, and a desire to “do something big.” For these troubled persons, there is a community in their own country and abroad exhorting them to act. Therefore, lone wolves never really act alone. They emerge in their own homeland far more often than persons entering another nation with the intent to do harm.
