Kashmir in Crisis—Again

In the latest cross border clash between Pakistan and India, an elderly woman and Indian soldier were killed and two others were injured, according to an Indian news agency. Press Trust of India also reported that, since September 29th, 60 such cross-border incursions by Pakistani militants have occurred across the Line of Control (LoC), the demarcation that separates the administrative control for India and Pakistan over the contested region of Kashmir. While India refers to these Incursions as “ceasefire violations,” it admitted to its own self-described “surgical strike” into Pakistani territory in the wake of an attack on an Indian army base near the city of Uri in September of this year. With both sides increasingly comfortable launching punitive responses, the risk of escalation is growing in a region over which the two countries have already fought three wars.

India and Pakistan have vied for control over the region ever since they split in 1947. If another war occurs, it will be between two nuclear armed states. To make matters worse, it would seem that neither side is very interested in negotiating. Pakistan plays down its involvement in the activities of Islamist militants in Jammu & Kashmir, while India is committed to a hardline approach. Seth Oldmixon, the founder of Liberty South Asia, told The Cipher Brief that “The isolation of Pakistan during the SAARC [South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation] Summit, the review of the Indus Water Treaty, and the tone of recent statements by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi… all indicate a preference for a punitive strategy toward Pakistan.”

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