- Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is calling Britain’s seizure of an Iranian oil tanker ‘piracy’ and says Iran will respond. British Royal Marines seized the tanker, saying it was delivering oil to Syria in violation of European sanctions. Britain earlier agreed to return the oil tanker in exchange for reassurances that the oil would not delivered to Syria.
- The fate of a missing UAE oil tanker that was last seen off the coast of Iran on Saturday is adding to heightened tensions.
- The European Union’s foreign policy chief says Iran’s breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal, which include surpassing restrictions on the production of enriched uranium, are not significant. The EU estimates that Iran is about a year away from developing a nuclear weapon and is urging Tehran to reverse course and come back into compliance with the deal.
- Britain, France and Germany all reiterated their continued support for the agreement, which the U.S. abandoned in 2018.
- In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that ‘Europe might ignore Iran threat until nuclear missiles hit’.
- Iran has detained a French academic studying in Iran on unspecified charges as France continues to offer its support to JCPOA.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is suggesting that Tehran may be willing to negotiate with the U.S. over its ballistic missile program but only if the U.S. will agree to a number of conditions, including a halt to U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The Cipher Brief tapped expert Norm Roule, who served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, to give us a better picture of what all of this means and where it is likely leading.
The Cipher Brief: Despite a series of conditional offers from Iran, it appears as though negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain unlikely. You predicted this last month in The Cipher Brief, do you predict any changes in the near future that could change that?
Roule: No. The U.S. is focused on long-term sanctions and the development of a coalition from reluctant allies who don’t always share its willingness to inflict pain on Iran for its regional and missile activities. The administration has kept all options - to include military - on the table, much like previous administrations. The assignment of an aircraft carrier strike group and B-52s has also demonstrated the extraordinary military power at our disposal, much in the same way as previous administrations assigned similar forces to the region. At the same time, Washington and our regional allies have worked to avoid steps which could provoke a regional conflict. In broad terms, U.S. policy against Iran has been consistent for several administrations.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"For Iran, the focus will remain on threatening the stability of global energy and commodity markets through unconventional operations, aggressive public diplomacy, and an expansion of its civilian nuclear program. Iran needs to inject a sense of urgency to this crisis, but without escalating things to the point of a conventional conflict."
Iran’s leaders occasionally send mixed messages on negotiations – which they will undertake only if all sanctions pressure is eliminated. Given the small chance of this happening, such offers are likely made to maintain pressure on the current diplomatic fracture between Washington and other members of the P5. I still see no evidence of the internal unrest which would likely be required to compel Iran’s leaders to seek meaningful negotiations.
It’s important to remember that the longer Iran endures sanctions, the more likely it becomes that Iran will experience the internal unrest it fears. So, Iran can’t just sit by while sanctions erode its economy. Tehran’s goal remains to do whatever it takes - short of significant concessions on nuclear, regional, and missile issues – to gain sanctions relief to improve its economy. It is likely to slowly expand its nuclear activities beyond those prohibited by the nuclear deal. The reaction to its recent violations was similar to the reaction to its acts of naval terrorism in the Gulf: short-lived diplomatic focus, but nothing which was likely to cause Iran’s leaders to believe that they are risking serious equities by continuing these provocations.
The above said, the danger remains that one of these acts may produce a “catastrophic success” which could provoke the very conflict everyone seeks to avoid.
The Cipher Brief: Have you seen any indication that the EU is willing to address Iran’s use of proxies to threaten and attack its regional neighbors?
Roule: No. Those who wish to challenge my view should list all the significant or meaningful steps Europe has taken in response to Iran’s recent actions in the Gulf. To be fair, Europe’s diplomats would say that they have always complained privately to Iran about Tehran’s regional adventurism. I have no doubt this is the case, but these communications have little impact on Iran’s decision making as they are conducted with Iran’s largely irrelevant foreign ministry. Within the region, the organization of the European Union (EU) is widely seen as uninterested in Iran’s regional adventurism or missile program.
The Cipher Brief: Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the EU, told the BBC that “our European friends should join the U.S. in unequivocally condemning Iran’s actions with respect to their malign activities, not just in the Strait of Hormuz but throughout the world.” Relatively speaking, how much of an impact will the EU’s position have in the next 30 days?
Roule: Although I believe Iran needs to hear that its regional and missile operations have angered Europe, words alone are insufficient. Iran’s leaders need to see that their decisions have consequences beyond a press statement or stiffly-worded demarche. A reduction in Iran’s diplomatic presence, a diplomatic campaign against Iran in the UN, pressure on Iran’s tourism industry, and other economic sanctions are required to get the attention of Iran’s leaders.
Norman T. Roule, National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"My sense is that Europe will remain focused on doing what it can to sustain the collapsing nuclear deal without aggravating Iran. The sole exception is the United Kingdom. Its designation of all wings of Hezbollah as terrorists and the seizure of the Iranian oil tanker bound for Syria (in violation of yet one more UN resolution) demonstrate genuine leadership and one more reason we should be thankful London is an ally."
The Cipher Brief: What do you expect to see or hear from China and Russia in regards to Iran this week?
Roule: Very little. Aside from their protection of Iran at the UN Security Council and support for Iran at the IAEA, neither has significant influence over Iran or are willing to sacrifice broader regional commercial, economic, or diplomatic ambitions to further Tehran’s interests. Russia will continue to call for “dialogue,” but this should be understood to mean any process which reduces or delays pressure on Iran.
The Cipher Brief: Are you still seeing indicators of increased Iranian cyber activity?
Roule: My understanding from cyber defense firms and regional countries is that Iran’s offensive cyber operations continue. As tensions escalate, cyber operations are likely to expand as well absent any belief in Iran that doing so will risk a Western response.
The Cipher Brief: What else are you seeing that national security leaders – both public and private need to understand this week about Iran?
Roule: The world needs to understand more about what is going on with Iran and its surrogates in Syria and Yemen. Their role in these conflicts has continued but this issue receives little attention in the press.
Read more from Norm Roule in The Cipher Brief
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