CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – Nearly two weeks after Hamas militants invaded Israel, targeting, kidnapping and killing civilians in a bloody massacre, questions remain around just how the Gaza-based terrorist organization was able to pull off such an elaborate and devastating operation under the nose of what is broadly considered one of the world’s most adept intelligence and security branches – igniting deeper concerns over the group’s strategic capabilities.
Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency accepted responsibility for the intelligence lapse saying in a statement issued Monday saying that the organization was “unable to generate sufficient warning that would allow the attack to be thwarted.”
Who is Hamas?
The organization, which was founded by Palestinian refugee Sheikh Ahmed Yassin amid the first intifada in 1987 with a pledge to annihilate the Jewish State, used the Arabic acronym “Hamas” for the Islamic Resistance Movement in a nod to its early affiliation with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood. However, as tensions and conflicts flared in recent decades over continued Israeli occupation and the cementing of settlements in the West Bank, the group has garnered much more military and ideological support – both inside and out – with a fighting force believed to number at least 30,000 and a depository of long-range drones and unmanned drones. The group was designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the U.S. State Department in 1997. The European Union also deems Hamas a terrorist outfit.
With a combination of violence and charitable giving, Hamas won control of the Gaza Strip in 2007, where it has ruled ever since. Yet most glaringly, Hamas’s continued ability to fight is due to its most prominent benefactor: Iran.
“Iran remains Hamas’s most important state patron, something to not lose sight of given Tehran’s role as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror. To Hamas, this support is believed to be both financial and material,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian security and political issues, told The Cipher Brief. “Since at least 2014, Iran has been working to help Hamas, as well as its other proxies in the’ Axis of Resistance,’ indigenize production of long-range strike capabilities like rockets.”
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Reports have surfaced that Iranian security officials, Lebanese Hezbollah, and other Palestinian factions played a pivotal role in planning and greenlighting the surprise barrage, orchestrated over several meetings in Beirut. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence agencies are yet to comment on what they believe Iran’s precise role may have been. Tehran has since espoused support for Hamas’s actions but has denied orchestrating the attacks.
Nonetheless, the Shia-governed Iran for years, has put aside its ideological differences with the Sunni-dominant Hamas to supply military equipment, primarily in the realm of missiles, as well as training and financing upwards of $100 million annually.
Charles Lister, Director of the Countering Terrorism Program at the Middle East Institute (MEI), emphasized that “Hamas’ greatest patron is Iran, upon which it remains existentially reliant for ongoing financial, military and intelligence support.”
“So far, the fact that the U.S. and Israeli governments are claiming’ no evidence’ of an Iranian role in Hamas’s assault on Israel isn’t because there isn’t any, but primarily because saying so in current conditions would force the regionalization of the current conflict, which everyone wants to avoid,” he said. “But in truth, there’s no reality in existence where Hamas would launch such an audacious, game-changing operation without the wholesale involvement of Iran from the get-go. To claim otherwise is simply illogical.”
While Iran may be Hamas’s greatest benefactor, it isn’t the only one.
Fellow Iran-backed, U.S-designated FTO Hezbollah, assembled in 1982, as a bulwark against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, has openly supported Hamas’s endeavors against its neighbor. According to leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah comprises more than 100,000 fighters. It boasts precision rockets capable of striking all parts and pockets of its neighbor, making it an incredibly potent non-state actor.
And then there is the state of Qatar, which Israel has allowed to give millions each year to Gazans – via Hamas – to improve quality of life and enable timely payment of government salaries, and subsequently deter future wars. But in the wake of the latest eruption, Israeli officials are endeavoring to halt the cash flow because of the risk of the money being used for military purposes rather than helping civilians in need.
Turkey, too, has positioned itself as a longtime ally of Hamas, allowing the group to maintain political offices on its soil as well as providing the top brass with passports and haven despite their “wanted” status by the U.S. government. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declined to denounce Hamas’s actions last weekend, instead vowing that it was “our responsibility to stand with the oppressed.” Speculation is rife however, that Ankara may even militarily support Hamas, particularly after sixteen tons of Turkey-originated, Gaza-destined explosive material was seized by Israeli authorities three months ago.
Counter Extremism Project (CEP) Executive Director David Ibsen says Turkey’s alliance with Hamas, runs fervently counter to NATO ally, the United States, and the terror group’s tight alliance with Doha.
“Since Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip and drove out the Palestinian Authority in 2007, Qatar and Turkey have emerged as Hamas’s primary diplomatic backers. Qatar is home to both the current leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, and the former leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal,” he explained. “Qatar provides Hamas with freedom of movement and allows it to carry out its activities undisturbed. In 2017, the Sheraton Hotel in Doha hosted Hamas’s press conference announcing its revised charter. Despite Hamas’s record of violence, including launching thousands of rockets at Israeli population centers over the years, Qatar continues to welcome the Hamas leadership and allow it to carry out its business undisturbed.”
As Hamas terrorists broke through the Gaza border and overran southern Israel, Ibsen pointed out that Haniyeh and other Hamas leaders watched events unfold from their offices in Doha.
“The U.S. maintains relations with both countries, which include major economic and trade relations. Qatar is a major non-NATO ally, for example,” he said. “It is quite peculiar, to say the least, that such an ally hosts the leadership of a foreign terrorist organization in luxury. The United States can impose economic and diplomatic costs, including by revoking Qatar’s major non-NATO ally status.”
Hamas also receives help much closer to home. Fellow Gaza-based militant organization, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, is reported to provide a prominent portion of fighters. Hamas collects taxes and fees from businesses and individuals and is accused of profiteering from smuggling operations through the Egypt-Gaza border.
Hamas has long received financial aid from Palestinian diaspora communities and charities, mainly spanning the Gulf states and Arab nations. The United Nations also spends hundreds of millions yearly to support Gazans, while the United States and its European allies also devote tens of millions in relief for Palestinians.
However, after the horrific attacks, Israel enacted a complete blockade of the Gaza Strip, raising alarm of a greater humanitarian catastrophe and deepening woes of another long and horrific war between the two warring parties.
So, what more can the U.S. do from this point on?
“The Biden administration has expressed wholehearted support and solidarity with Israel, but beyond sending a carrier strike group as a show of force against Israel’s adversaries and show of support to Israel, there is much more that can be done,” Taleblu stressed. “In principle, Washington needs to do a 180 on its Iran policy, pushing away from the table on the JCPOA or any lesser agreement and returning to full and vigorous enforcement of the oil and petrochemical sanctions the administration inherited but has been reluctant to enforce. Absent a change in Tehran’s macroeconomic situation, the more revenue it has, the more aggressive and bolder it and its proxies are slated to become.”
Yet whatever the future holds, Lister pointed out that the status quo is just not working.
“For a long time, the U.S. and Israel have relied heavily on regional mediators to keep Hamas in check and negotiate ceasefires during times of open conflict. The problem with this latest assault is that those mediators don’t appear to carry the same leverage as before,” he added. “Hamas’s political wing appears to have no knowledge of this attack ahead of time, and it was through them that traditional mediation was channeled. We’re dealing with a different and far more challenging dynamic now, in terms of negotiations, and the fact that hostages are now being held in Gaza makes that even more difficult.”
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