OPINION – The diplomatic and military moves of world leaders can be akin to a tango, a basic pattern of steps incorporating long pauses and dramatic body positions. What’s playing out on the world stage between Russia and Ukraine is just that. But it could also be the move that Putin, who first served as Acting President of Russia in 1999, would like to become his legacy.
Following the expected accusations of ceasefire violations and alleged atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces against ethnic Russians in the separatist enclaves of the Donetsk Peoples Republic and Luhansk Peoples Republic, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent Russian troops into these republics as “peacekeepers.” The move followed the adoption by the Russian Duma of a resolution calling for the absorption of these republics into the territory of the Russian Federation.
Putin’s decision followed televised deliberations by Russia’s National Security Council that included discussion of alleged atrocities against ethnic Russians before a vote was taken that unanimously approved the insertion of Russian troops to ‘protect’ that population.
The deliberations were reminiscent of Stalin’s show trials, where the guilty verdict preceded the deliberations. (Though SVR Director Sergei Naryshkin seemed to have lost his copy of the script and had to be “reminded” by Putin of the verdict).
The other partner in this dance on the world stage - the West – had already made a move by announcing a series of “first tranche” sanctions against Russia and the separatist republics. Arguably, the most impactful of these sanctions is the decision by Germany to suspend certification of the NordStream 2 pipeline, a key priority for Putin, who is eager to increase European reliance on energy from Russia.
Putin’s decision to send troops into Ukrainian territory was preceded by public efforts on the part of many western leaders to travel to Moscow or to engage the Russian President in a series of phone calls, in what appears now, as failed efforts to avoid a conflict. Putin’s treatment of French President Emmanuel Macron was nothing less than humiliating and Putin’s statements at the concluding press conference following their six-hour meeting, included a threat of nuclear war.
Putin’s treatment of new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was scarcely better and may have influenced the German leader to move his country more solidly into alignment with the US and EU on the need for meaningful sanctions levied against Russia.
One hopes that these leaders along with President Biden will have learned something from efforts to engage in face-to-face meetings with Putin. The vast expanse of the conference table where the leaders met with the Russian President illustrated the figurative distance that remains between them.
Putin’s press conference that followed the decision to send In Russian troops was disturbing on many levels and will likely have strengthened the arguments of those who believe Putin is mentally unstable. One conclusion that should be drawn is that negotiations with the Russian leader are pointless and only encourage him to believe that with continued pressure, the Western alliance will fracture and Putin will get the sphere of influence he so desperately desires to fulfill his legacy. Former world chess champion Gary Kasparov was exactly right when he said Putin doesn’t play the situation on the chessboard, he plays his opponent.
What comes next? Putin has not been and will not be, deterred by sanctions. That doesn’t mean sanctions shouldn’t be applied but they should be applied as part of a strategy with the objective of achieving change in the current political paradigm in Russia. The West should use sanctions as part of a strategy to separate the oligarchs from Putin by hitting their overseas and business interests hard and by going after their assets and privileges where accessible. Those are plentiful sanctions targets and include luxurious flats in London and Miami, for example, and assets in western financial institutions. Make them feel financial pain that will undermine their loyalty to Putin because these oligarchs and their businesses provide the economic underpinning of Putin’s regime. Go after them relentlessly.
Secondly, recognize that another element of Putin’s support network is the so-called “siloviki” who are the current or former leaders of the security services and associated organizations in Russia. This cadre has fewer assets overseas and their children have been given plum positions in Russian businesses. They are less subject to sanctions. This cadre should be the target of investigation and publicity of their fabulous wealth and the privileged positions their children have been given.
The team surrounding jailed Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny has done a remarkable job of doing exactly that and this work should be supported and complemented. Putin’s assets should also be investigated and publicized far more aggressively. Navalny’s team exposed the excesses of Putin’s palace, but this importance of the story seems to have faded. Where is the investigative work exposing Putin’s over-the-top wealth and why isn’t it out there for the consumption of the Russian people? Part of the answer is that Putin uses Russia’s state-controlled media to present a carefully crafted image of a sober, fit, religious and patriotic leader. It is a carefully crafted lie.
Time for the final moves in this dance is already running out. Successive U.S. presidents and European leaders have naively believed that Putin could either be ignored or accommodated and with the rising threat of China, Putin could be moved to the second tier of priorities. This was a strategic mistake for which we are now paying the price.
Putin will certainly execute Phase II of his Ukraine strategy in the next few weeks while weather conditions are favorable for armored operations. That next move will certainly be justified by the need to protect ethnic Russians from atrocities in Ukraine east of the Dneipr and conveniently building a land bridge to Crimea and likely even further west to connect with Transnistria (take Odessa) and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov this would deliver a crippling economic blow to Ukraine.
This would also create the perfect conditions for a counter coup d’etat to reverse the western-initiated coup d’etat that forced Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich to seek asylum in Russia. Putin often refers to this coup d’etat and this is a much more appealing Phase III of the subjugation of Ukraine than images of Russian tanks rolling through the streets of Kyiv and scenes of street fighting. Let there be no doubt about Putin’s plans for Ukraine.
The final moves in this dance are coming. The West better be ready.
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