SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — With a mere 1.2 million citizens, Estonia is among NATO’s smallest members, but its contributions to Ukraine have led the pack by a wide margin. Estonia’s military aid to Ukraine has reached 3.6 percent of GDP; by that metric, Denmark is the second most generous donor, at 2.4 percent; the U.S., by comparison, has given the equivalent of 0.32 percent of GDP, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. There’s a reason for Estonia’s generosity; it was invaded by the Russian-led Soviet Union twice in the past century and ultimately won its freedom from Moscow in 1991. And given its small size and border with Russia, Estonia is likely to be among the first victims if the Kremlin widens its war on Europe beyond Ukraine.
Margus Tsahkna, the country’s 47-year-old foreign minister (and former defense minister), has gained a reputation for speaking plainly about Russian President Vladimir Putin and his clearly-stated aim to rebuild the Soviet Union, or the Russian Empire of Tsar Peter the Great. Putin's ambitions, Tsahkna says, are the reason why Russia must be defeated in Ukraine, before the war spirals out of control and moves to other parts of Europe.
Tsahkna spoke on Monday to The Cipher Brief, just hours before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a fresh plea for missiles to defend Ukraine against Russian attacks on its cities and infrastructure, and called on Kyiv's allies to show the same unity they displayed in helping Israel fend off Saturday’s drone and missile attacks from Iran.
THE CONTEXT
- Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Estonia has given aid to Kyiv amounting to 3.6% of the Baltic state’s GDP.
- Estonia hosts more than 50,000 Ukrainian refugees. The Baltic nations have taken on more Ukrainian refugees than most countries in Europe, except for Poland.
- Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said in February that Russia was preparing for a military confrontation with the West in the next decade, with plans to double the number of Russian forces along the borders with Finland and the Baltic states. While Estonia said a Russian military attack in the short term is “highly unlikely” due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, Estonian leaders say Europe must counter any buildup of forces to deter conflict.
- In Washington, Speaker Mike Johnson said this week he will bring separate bills on aid for Ukraine, Israel and the U.S.'s Indo-Pacific allies to the House floor in an effort to break the months-long deadlock on the Senate’s $95 billion foreign aid package.
THE INTERVIEW
Cipher Brief contributor Peter Green spoke with Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia, to discuss his country's views of Russia and the war in Ukraine.
This Cipher Brief interview has been edited for length and clarity.
The Cipher Brief: We are more than two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and NATO is faltering. You seem frustrated, and you often remind people that Russia will not stop at the Polish border if it defeats Ukraine. What keeps you up at night?
Tsahkna: We still remember all the stories of our families when we were under Soviet occupation for 50 years. We lost one-fifth of our population during this occupation, and exactly the same thing is happening now in Ukraine. Putin declared years ago what his plan is, but we just didn't believe him. Now he's [carrying out] this plan, in a very robust way: in Georgia in 2008, in Ukraine in 2014, and now we have a full-scale war in Europe. We have witnessed that Putin has put the war machine in place, and he cannot stop. So we need to stop him now in Ukraine, instead of letting this war [reach] Europe, with NATO.
We have been called Russophobic (or) panic-politicians, but we took Putin’s words seriously. And nobody believed [us]. He declared 10 years ago what he will do, and nobody believed him. So I say, right now let's take very seriously what he says. And he says that he wants to restore the [Russian] Empire.
But we have a hopeful situation, because we have Ukrainians who are fighting against this aggression, and the cheapest, most efficient and safest way [is] to support Ukrainians right now. They don't ask for our boots on the ground, they just ask for our military support, they ask for financial support. And we (NATO) have great military capabilities, much stronger than Russia has, to support Ukraine.
The Cipher Brief:Estonia is on the front line with Russia. There have been several recent cases of Russian saboteurs operating against Estonia, both inside the country and remotely, via the internet. Do you have any new intelligence that's got you concerned?
Tsahkna: We are investing a lot in our independent [defense] capabilities, and also we have NATO troops here. But Putin is pushing different red lines daily.
When I was defense minister, we saw in 2016-17, 120,000 [Russian] troops ready to go within 24 or 48 hours (on our border), but they are all gone. They have been sent to Ukraine, or they are dead, they're literally gone. So that's why I'm saying that Ukrainians are fighting instead of us: not only for us, but instead of us.
But our intelligence says Russia has a plan to re-establish these capabilities [troops at the Estonian border] within the next three to four years. Even if the Ukraine war is ongoing, they have this opportunity. In 2016 they didn't have the will. But now there’s a question of whether Putin is able or even wants to stop this war machine he has established. For his own survival, Putin needs to have ongoing aggression somewhere. Now the Poles can be attacked. I don't believe that will happen but a test of NATO can happen, [probably] on a small scale, but what we already have are hybrid attacks. We have cyber attacks constantly. The increase has been really heavy against Estonia.
The Cipher Brief:Tell me about the cyber attacks and the hybrid warfare. You had a recent denial of service attack that came from Russia?
Tsahkna: A couple of weeks ago, we had historically the biggest cyber attack against the Estonian governmental domain, where we are running most of our public services. Within four hours, we got 3 billion, not million, billion unlawful requests. [The aim was] to shut down our systems. We managed to deal with that, but even for the U.S., this is a huge attack, and it came from Russia.
A second example is that we have made more than 10 arrests now of people who have committed or planned to commit attacks against our public officials’ property. All of this is organized, and this is documented, by the Russian special services, on NATO [territory], and it is not happening only in Estonia. Putin is pushing the limits and testing our reactions. We expelled one Russian diplomat from the Russian Embassy in Tallinn because of that.
We have raised this question at the NATO and EU level, because [it appears] that we are preparing for the next conflict based on [our experience with] the last conflict, that the war will start with a full-scale military invasion as happened in Ukraine. But I think Putin is afraid of NATO. Still, he’s testing our unity, he’s testing our systems and our political will, and it's ongoing, so we must react.
The Cipher Brief:You say Putin is afraid of NATO, but how afraid is he?
Margus Tsahkna:In the Western part of the world, we always say publicly what we are not doing — what we are not doing militarily, what we are not doing politically, what we are not doing practically. And we are giving very clear guidelines to Putin to understand what we are actually doing. This is not a good thing.
We are not talking about sending NATO troops to Ukraine. Ukraine is not asking, and we are not planning to send them. But what about training? What about some other kind of cooperation? [This would make] Putin confused a lot more than he was before. So we need to think outside of the box. But we have to agree as well—what is our goal? And we suggest the goal must be that Russia must lose this war. And if we agree on this goal, then we know already what to do.
The Cipher Brief:There’s a strong isolationist sentiment in the U.S. on the MAGA right and on the left end of the spectrum. They ask why an American soldier should die to defend Estonia. What do you say to those people?
Tsahkna: I was defense minister when Trump entered the White House for the first time. The message is clear, and the numbers [back it up]: It is much cheaper for everybody, for the U.S. as well, to support Ukrainians right now, because they are fighting instead of us. Otherwise, we must do the fighting ourselves. We have had this kind of experience in the past as well when the U.S. or other countries were thinking that they were not at war, and don't have to be a part of [the war], in the First World War and the Second World War. But finally, the U.S. was in the war, Great Britain was in. So this should teach us something.
The second thing is that the U.S. is so connected to the European Union economically as well. So this transatlantic bond is not just asking for something from the U.S., but Europe is giving a lot to the U.S. This is one system. The third thing is about democracy. If you look at the United Nations, democratic countries are not in the majority anymore. And the fourth point is that China and all the other non-democratic countries are watching very closely how this war will end. If Russia can declare victory, that means that everything is possible. China can do whatever it wants with Taiwan. The global system that was created and led by the U.S. after the Second World War will collapse if Ukraine falls.
So as businessman to businessman, I would like to say [to Trump] that it is much cheaper, safer, and efficient to support Ukraine right now, and push Russia back to Russia, than to deal with that later.
We are a front-line country here, and we know exactly what is going on the other side of the border. But if NATO’s Article Five will work when deterrence is not working, we have all the [military] capacity here, this victorious war of NATO against Russian aggression will happen in our territory. We are ready to pay the price if there is a need for that.
The Cipher Brief: Estonia’s parliament is considering a bill now to use seized Russian assets to help Ukraine, and you discussed this when you were in the U.S. last month.
Tsahkna: We are the first country in the world, or in Europe, at least, who probably will adopt this law within the next month in our parliament. This is something that Russian oligarchs, and also Russia, are afraid of. So as a businessman, we say to Trump supporters: Let's use Russian frozen assets instead of our taxpayers’ money. It helps all the taxpayers not to pay so much anymore, but also it harms Russia and Russian oligarchs who are supporting Putin because they are afraid of losing their assets. So we make the case in Estonia to Europe that we are following the rule of law and relying on the very conservative Estonian constitution for the protection of private assets.
A couple of weeks ago, on my visit to the U.S., we had a meeting at the Treasury (Department) with a deputy secretary and an NSA deputy [about using Ukrainian assets]. This is something I think U.S. taxpayers must support, because it's very logical. If we have the right, and we have recent frozen assets, aggressor assets, let's use them.
The Cipher Brief: How much is there in Russian assets in Estonia that you could freeze?
Tsahkna:It's not a big amount, it’s $37 million in private assets, but it's enough to create a test case.
The Cipher Brief: What do you say to those Western companies who oppose using the assets because they want to be compensated for the property they have lost in Russia?
Tsahkna:It's very dangerous to have any business in Russia. This is a fear I'm seeing in Europe, because many businesses are in Russia and are afraid of losing their businesses if we are going to start to use the frozen assets of Russia. But there is a price we need to pay sometimes. In Estonia, we know very well that with Putin or with Russia, you can negotiate only from a very strong position.
The Cipher Brief:You’re saying there is no going back, and reaching any agreement with Russia that leaves it in Ukraine will just open the door to more Russian adventurism?
Tsahkna: Too many people in the world, too many countries are still thinking that business as usual may come back as it was before the war, but it won't come back. These different peace initiatives that we are hearing all over the world are dangerous. If we're going to make peace without the Ukrainians, by going over their heads, this [paves the way] for the next aggression. We must understand that business as usual is not coming back.
The Cipher Brief: Is there a danger that by making Russia lose, and lose face, you create more chaos, like Germany humiliated at Versailles?
Tsahkna: I heard these same analyses when the Soviet Union was collapsing. Exactly the same things. But what happened was that nothing happened. We became independent, and many other nations became independent. So the same thing applies [this time]. Putin understands only power. Russia understands only power. If we're just trying to get any kind of new agreement, that [agreement will be] the new red line they'll keep pushing next time. [If we stay firm,] nothing dramatic will happen, and Putin’s regime will collapse.
The wrong way of thinking (is), “let’s be worried whether Putin is in power or not.” Sorry, Putin is not a very good leader for us. He's bad for everybody, he's a threat to our system. I understand – but I'm not supporting – this mentality of fear of escalation, because Putin is just playing with our fears. And he's doing it very, very well, very efficiently. He has declared I don't know how many times during the last few years, that if you supply this kind of weapon, if you move this, if you do this, then there will be an escalation. But I'm asking, where is the escalation? Now there is a nuclear threat. But this is not a military strategy. No effective policy is going to use nuclear weapons. This is a political question, but I think now Putin is afraid of NATO. He’s just playing with us, but if he sees that we are all afraid, that [will be seen as] a green light.
The Cipher Brief: So you’re saying that tough negotiations with the Russians will work
Tsahkna:We regained our independence in 1991, but we negotiated more than three years to get Russian troops off Estonian territory. The Russian troops left in 1994, because the U.S. and other countries backed us up in the talks with Russia.
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