Unilateral Disarmament in the New Cold Wars

By Paul Kolbe

Paul Kolbe is former director of The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.  Kolbe also led BP’s Global Intelligence and Analysis team supporting threat warning, risk mitigation, and crisis response. Kolbe served 25 years as an operations officer in the CIA, where he was a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, serving in Russia, the Balkans, Indonesia, East Germany, Zimbabwe, and Austria.

OPINION — Just as America’s adversaries intensify efforts to win the new Cold War, erode American influence, and prepare for conflict, the U.S. is unilaterally disarming—abandoning the very tools which provided decisive advantage in the Cold War: diplomacy, intelligence, information, economics, culture, and raw military power. 

For over five decades, Republican and Democratic administrations alike embraced an ”all-of-the-above” combination of tools to oppose communism and tyranny. The strategy worked. Yet today we are systematically dismantling those instruments of power while our adversaries expand theirs. 

Foreign aid has been dismissed as soft-hearted waste. The reality is that our foreign aid has always been used to build American influence and security. During the Cold War, our foreign assistance programs in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East were a cost-effective way to help allies and reduce the instability on which adversaries and terrorism thrives. Eviscerating USAID and cutting foreign aid programs opens a vacuum that the Chinese and Russians will happily fill. 

A global message 

In the war of ideas, Voice of America and Radio Liberty delivered objective news and information for decades, to global audiences hungry for something other than state propaganda received through Soviet and Communist Chinese media organs. There is a reason those repressive states jammed broadcasts and imprisoned those caught listening. They feared their own citizens armed with the truth and still do.  

And there is a reason for China and Russia to cheer the assault on these institutions. Killing VOA and Radio Liberty cedes the field to Russia Today, The People’s Daily and other state-sponsored media which spew a constant stream of anti-American lies and fabrication.  

On the diplomatic front, our Foreign Service officers provide the skills and relationships needed for America to negotiate on tough issues. While Chinese “wolf warrior” diplomats spread across the globe to fiercely advance Chinese interests, eager to step in where America retreats, we are closing consulates, firing seasoned professionals, and hollowing out the Department of State through layoffs and hiring freezes. 


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Cuts to the intelligence community 

Intelligence is another area where short-sighted policies are weakening the U.S. Our clandestine services – CIA, NSA, DIA, NGA – must be focused on truly existential threats. While terrorism and narcotics demand attention, neither ISIS nor drug cartels can annihilate America within minutes; both Russia and China can and have openly threatened to do so. Diverting talent and resources away from great-power threats, as we did after 9/11, will lead to defeat in the very real shadow wars now waged against us by China and Russia. 

As a former CIA operations officer who served in “Russia House,” during the Cold War and after, I know that intelligence collection and covert actions played key roles in containing the Soviet Union. But they weren’t sufficient on their own. Cold War victory came ultimately from a broad-based strategy that combined covert tools with economic, cultural, military, and diplomatic efforts – all reinforcing each other. 

Covert action, used by every administration to quietly advance US objectives, only works in context of a cohesive national strategy. It cannot succeed in isolation.  

Art and culture 

We have also given up ground on the cultural side. During the Cold War, America’s movies, music, books, and art served as powerful messengers of American ideals. Student exchanges and American libraries overseas helped spread democratic values. Unfortunately, cuts to Department of State cultural programs, along with Hollywood’s self-censorship of projects which might raise the ire of the Chinese Communist Party, are sad examples of America’s retreat from competition in the realm of ideas.  

Military power was of course vital to deter a Soviet invasion of Western Europe and, should it come to it, fight. But the U.S. and the USSR were military peers. We did not win the Cold War because we had a stronger military. We won because we had a more attractive system and a more compelling message. We offered hope, opportunity, and inspiration – something the Soviets couldn’t match. 

Economically, expanding global prosperity was an American superpower. By building global institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and United Nations, the United States was instrumental in expanding the global economic pie. The post-war history of U.S. policies and trade is one of unprecedented wealth creation both abroad and at home.  

Today we risk squandering that economic superpower by forgetting that the secret of our wealth has been global growth. We turn inward and isolationist at the risk of turning over the keys to our own prosperity to others. Do we really want China dominating global financial institutions, setting the rules of the game, and creating an alternative to the U.S. dollar? 

Finally, America must not discard one of its greatest strengths: our global allies. Every major conflict the U.S. has engaged in, going back to the Revolutionary War, has benefited from the support of allies and friends. As we face an increasingly dangerous and threatening world, we need foxhole buddies standing shoulder to shoulder with us. At the very pinnacle of U.S. power following World War II, President Eisenhower emphasized, “We need an America that understands that its allies are its greatest strength.”  

“Peace through Strength” should mean building and using all the tools of American power.  Let’s not unilaterally disarm, squandering our greatest advantages and leaving ourselves vulnerable and weak in the face of determined adversaries. If America uses the full spectrum of its power, we will truly make America great, not second rate. 

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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