EXPERT Q&A — The U.S. began moving additional military assets to the Middle East in anticipation of a direct attack on Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran nearly two weeks ago.
The U.S. has moved an additional carrier strike group to the region, additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers, and additional land-based ballistic missile defense weapons. It has also moved in an amphibious assault ship and an additional fighter jet squadron that includes F-22 Raptors. So, what does all of this mean?
The Cipher Brief spoke with Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan (ret.), former Commander of the 5th Fleet, to discuss the U.S. response to heightened tensions in the region and what the U.S. military is likely expecting from Tehran. Our interview has been edited for clarity.
The Cipher Brief: How dangerous would you say, conditions are in the Middle East right now?
VADM Donegan: I don’t want to overplay it, but I think we’re in a very tenuous situation. What we used to describe as red lines don’t really exist anymore because on both sides, they’ve kind of been crossed over. And where that’s left us is in a place where if you attack, if there’s one attack, there’s going to be a retaliation. Then, that retaliation comes and that begets another retaliation. And that’s where you end up having this escalation that everyone says they don’t want but can be a natural fallout. If we’re not careful, it could be a road to some greater conflict, if not a war, in the region. An extended conflict that’s beyond the boundaries, as we’ve already seen, with Gaza. And that’s the problem. I don’t think there’s a crystal ball out there that tells us clearly how this is going to go.
The Cipher Brief: What about the equipment being moved into the region by the U.S.? What does it signal in terms of the U.S. projecting deterrence toward Iran to further escalate?
VADM Donegan: If you think about it from the United States standpoint, we absolutely want to deter this conflict from escalating. Deterring Iran from expanding this conflict or playing a role in expanding the conflict broader into the region is priority number one.
Tied with that, is making sure our U.S. troops are protected. We have a fair number of troops in the region. Depending on your count, it’s between 35,000 and 40,000 troops that are always in the region in some shape or form. Protecting our own soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines in the region is incredibly important. We don’t want another Jordan to happen. Protecting our troops is one of the other reasons we want to make sure we have the right forces to do that.
And then the third reason, and this has been made public through the State Department and through the administration, is that we’re there to help defend Israel against what could be an impending attack of some kind from Iran. Those are the three reasons I look at as to why we’re ensuring we have the right forces in place in the region.
In terms of what’s going there, there’s been a focus on the maritime forces. Maritime and air forces can get to a region and have this inherent maneuver capability so they don’t have to always be there, but they can get there relatively quickly. And as you know, there’s already a pretty robust presence in the region that extends from Gaza all the way through to the Gulf.
An amphibious strike group in the Mediterranean plus ballistic missile and other surface ships can help defend against an attack on Israel.
And then when you get to the Red Sea, we’re there trying to do our best in the sea lanes, but we have forces there that can intercept anything that’s coming from Iran or from that direction toward Israel. And then over more in the Gulf, we have carrier strike group assets and more ships.
Secretary Austin announced that the Abraham Lincoln is moving to the region from the Pacific to relieve the Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group. There could be two there at the same time for some period of time. And then, he also announced that the U.S. is bringing another squadron of airplanes, likely F -22s or something of that nature to help defend and protect and deter.
So, if you’re Iran looking out the window, you’re looking at quite an array set up to help the Israelis defend anything that comes in their direction. And don’t think those forces are just sitting there in one place. For instance, some of the airplanes on the aircraft carrier likely have moved ashore to be positioned in the right place before the Air Force airplanes can come. In other words, it’s all a coordinated joint effort to provide the best posture to deter Iran, protect our own troops and defend Israel against an attack.
It’s not just for the President anymore. Cipher Brief Subscriber+Members have access to their own Open Source Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
The Cipher Brief: What are the possible responses from Iran that you would be anticipating if you were still in uniform?
VADM Donegan: Iran is not just Iran because it has proxies and surrogates in the region that can also bring their capabilities to bear. It’s important to talk about who they are and where they’re postured.
It’s also important to look back to the last time that Iran did attack Israel. Remember, it was mostly missiles and drones, very conventional. Most of those were intercepted and they did little damage inside of Israel. If you’re Iran, that’s not the outcome they would want this time. They don’t want to look like they’re not capable of responding to, in their words, to the ‘great Satan’, which is the United States and Israel and all that the West stands for.
So, the way I look at this and what Iran has in terms of options is that they still have the ballistic missiles that can reach Israel, and they still have drones that can reach Israel. So those are expected to be brought to bear, but they also have their surrogates, which weren’t so much tied to the last attack. We’ve heard a lot about the Houthis in Yemen, being in some ways supported completely by Iran and likely do some of Iran’s bidding. And as you know, they launched attacks against Israel and Israel responded back into Yemen, so they do have a capability.
And then there are of course, the Iranian-backed groups that are in Iraq and Syria. One of those launched an attack on a U.S. base recently and injured U.S. soldiers. So those Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria certainly could be involved in attacking U.S. forces again. Remember, it wasn’t many months ago when they were doing that on a somewhat regular basis.
And then the other thing that can come into play is Lebanese Hezbollah, which has very much been supported and is an absolute proxy of Iran. They could bring a tremendous arsenal of missiles and drones and they can be much more accurate than what was used by the Houthis and others. They have a much bigger arsenal.
They could all be in the trick bag. So could other terrorist acts across the region. They would all take time to unfold but that’s what they could do. I would not expect Hezbollah to expend all of the weapons that they have holed up at this particular time, though. They know Israel has great intelligence, great capability, and they’re poised to strike. They don’t want to risk what they’ve built up in terms of capability at this moment in time, when they see Israel in a long, protracted conflict that isn’t necessarily going the way that they want.
Watch The World Deciphered, a new weekly talk show from The Cipher Brief with expert commentary on national and global security available exclusively on The Cipher Brief’s YouTube channel. Subscribe today.
The Cipher Brief: Everyone from all sides seems to keep saying this is a war that no one wants. What are your options strategically, politically, from Tehran’s perspective?
VADM Donegan: Tehran’s strength has never been direct confrontation with its conventional forces. They’re not a match for the United States or the United States and Israel combined or other allies combined. Their strength is in terrorism and the use of proxy forces. One of their options is to retaliate in their own way over time. I think they’re somewhat under pressure to respond but they can play it up to say this isn’t all we’re going to do. This was just step one to indicate that they will continue to ratchet up the pressure. That is the more rational way to go, but I don’t really know how they’re going to play this out with the new leadership.
The Cipher Brief: What indicators are you looking for moving forward?
VADM Donegan: Of course, our intelligence forces are all going to be listening very closely to what’s being said in whatever channels we can listen in on to understand what’s going on. That’s number one. We’ll look for a posture or movement of any kind of forces. We will certainly pay attention very closely to what Hezbollah is doing to understand if retaliation might be coordinated in some way. I would believe it’s kind of ‘all hands on deck’ from an intelligence standpoint. The rhetoric out of Iran isn’t going to change things. I wouldn’t use that as a barometer as to what’s going to happen.
Who’s Reading this? More than 500K of the most influential national security experts in the world. Need full access to what the Experts are reading?
It’s not just for the President anymore. Cipher Brief Subscriber+Members have access to their own Open Source Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
