As part of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment this week, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that “Global jihadists in dozens of groups and countries threaten local and regional U.S. interests, despite having experienced some significant setbacks in recent years, and some of these groups will remain intent on striking the U.S. homeland. Prominent jihadist ideologues and media platforms continue to call for and justify efforts to attack the U.S. homeland.”
The Cipher Brief is bringing you a range of expert perspectives this week on the global terrorist threat. We asked Cipher Brief Expert and former Director of the CIA’s National Clandestine Service, John Bennett, a range of questions about how he sees today’s terror threat.
The Terrorist Threats We Don’t Talk Much About
Since the 1998 African Embassy attacks, and certainly since 9/11, our focus has been on Sunni extremist groups such as AQ and ISIS. While that threat still exists, I believe the next big threat to the homeland could come from Hezbollah or other Iranian proxy groups as our relations with Iran become more confrontational. Should we ever strike a target in Iran, or perhaps even if the Israelis do it, I would be very concerned about a well-planned and resourced asymmetric attack on the homeland sponsored by Iran.
Another group which could pose a threat to the homeland, although I am sure the FBI is very conscious of it, is the Somali group Al-Shabab. While the overwhelming majority of Somalis have come here to escape the violence in Somalia it is only a matter of time until someone in the Somali American community loses a relative in a U.S. strike in Somalia and decides to seek blood vengeance, which is very Somali.
The Target Zone
I am frankly surprised that we have not yet seen an attack on a "soft target" in the homeland. Malls, movie theaters and restaurants have minimal security when compared to many other places in the world. We have seen two attacks on malls in Nairobi and attacks on public venues such as concerts, cafes and marketplaces in Europe. I think it is just a matter of time and then we will turn our malls into controlled access venues like airports.
The Challenge with Predicting the Next Threat
Self-radicalization via social media and the internet poses a real challenge. The current debate on the need for privacy in the digital space makes it even harder for the FBI and Intel Services (monitoring overseas) to identify those who may pose a threat. We have seen that in the case of mass school shootings there were often indicators that the person posed a threat but it was not noticed or acted on, in many cases. I suspect the same will be true for self-radicalized terrorists who do not have travel records, time in high threat countries or the other indicators we have used to try and identify potential terrorists in the past.
Remember the Terrorist Mindset
None of the above is new or original to me. Suffice it to say we may think the fight is over, but they do not. When the next significant attack on the homeland occurs people will not say to the IC, FBI and DoD "Well, you’ve done a great job protecting us for the past 17 years," but instead they’ll be asking "How could this happen again?"
Read more from John Bennett…
Read more special terrorism coverage from The Cipher Brief…
Terrorist Threats Not Always the Usual Suspects, by Mitch Silber
How to Kill Off a Withering Terrorist Organization, by Bruce Hoffman
The Next Terrorist Threat, by The Cipher Brief Team
