The Cipher Brief interviewed a number of national security experts on the sidelines of this year’s Munich Security Conference. Here are key takeaways from U.S. Ambassador Kurt Volker, who served as former U.S. Ambassador to NATO. Our interview has been lightly edited.
The Cipher Brief: What are the biggest themes that you heard emerging from the halls of Munich this year?
Ambassador Volker: Number one is that there remains a great deal of unity in the West behind supporting Ukraine and its defense against Russia. I’ve heard that from just about everybody. Ukraine is among the number one topics of discussion. I’m also hearing a lot of concern about what’s happening in the United States and the inability of the House of Representatives to get the aid bill for Ukraine to the floor, and some of the comments that people have heard from Donald Trump about NATO have really alarmed some people here.
The Cipher Brief: I want to ask you about those comments in just a moment but first, it was two years ago now that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stood on that stage and just a few days later, Russia invaded and he famously told Western leaders who offered to evacuate him from his own country, said, “I don’t need a ride; I need ammunition.” Here we are two years later; he still needs ammunition. Are European leaders there talking about any kind of Plan B if the U.S. Congress doesn’t come through with this aid package?
Ambassador Volker: They’re starting to. There are some interesting things being said by the Europeans right now. They are talking about creating greater investment funds for the defense industry so that they can guarantee procurement, which will allow industry to invest in order to ramp up European defense production. That’s a positive step right there.
There’s also talk in the next European Commission that they might create a commissioner for defense, which would be a first for the European Union, and that would be someone at a senior level who would oversee these kinds of investments.
And then, when it comes to NATO, many NATO countries are already ramping up defense spending. Poland, for example, is already spending 4% of GDP on defense this year. Lithuania is doing the same thing. And compared to 2016, when just three NATO allies were spending 2% or more of GDP on defense, now that number is 18. So, things are trending in the right way in terms of Europe improving its own capabilities.
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The Cipher Brief: There was an announcement as the conference kicked off that Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who had been jailed and was serving time in an Arctic prison, had passed away. Tell us about the mood that cast over the conversations you were having, and whether you think that news might lead anyone to action.
Ambassador Volker: It was not unexpected. Everybody knows that is the nature of Putin’s Russia and that he tried to kill Navalny before with the poison Novichok. Putin imprisoned him as soon as he came back from getting medical treatment in Germany. They’ve kept him in increasingly horrible conditions in different prisons inside Russia. This last one was up in the Arctic in the middle of winter where are cold cell conditions, so it’s not a surprise really, that he succumbed to it. It is chilling that this is the nature of Russia’s regime under Putin, but it’s also not unexpected.
I think that there is a resolve here in Europe, maybe even more so in the United States right now, that they know they’re going to have a long-term standoff with Russia because of the nature of the regime.
The Cipher Brief: Are they worried about the U.S. elections? You mentioned it off the top of our conversation. Are they worried about the outcome of the election in the United States come November and what a relationship between Trump – if elected – and Putin might look like?
Ambassador Volker: They are. They don’t quite know what to make of it. They heard Donald Trump’s campaign rally remarks when he was bragging about having told a European leader that he would encourage Putin to go do whatever he wants to them if they haven’t paid 2% of GDP. That’s the kind of remark that sends chills down the spines of people here and for good reason. When you see what Russia does – waging a war against a country like Ukraine, bombing civilians, bombing cities, conducting rape, pillage, murder, torture, the abduction of children, you shouldn’t wish that on anybody. Even as a pressure tactic, you don’t wish that on anybody. So that’s caused alarm here.
I have tried to remind people here in Munich that it was bragging at a campaign rally about what he did in the past or claims to have done in the past, not a prediction for the future, but nonetheless, people are concerned about it.
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The Cipher Brief: Is anyone talking about China?
Ambassador Volker: Yes, but not as much as in past years. Even last year, you heard more about China than you do right now. The Chinese foreign minister was here. He talked about wanting to play a role in brokering peace in Ukraine, feeling that they have a channel with both Russia and Ukraine. I don’t think that’s going anywhere at the moment because Putin is not interested. There is a concern about Chinese tech, and you do hear that in the corridors quite a lot, and some countries are taking greater steps on that.
The Cipher Brief: Were there any wild card issues that came up that you didn’t really expect to be talking about while you were there?
Ambassador Volker: Not really. I think this is all kind of in the realm that we thought we were going to be talking about; Russia, Ukraine, a little bit of China, NATO, and where we go with NATO, particularly as we head into our 75th anniversary summit in Washington this July. But the Navalny thing came out of the blue in terms of the day in which he died. But then again, no one is really surprised by that either.
The Cipher Brief: What are your key takeaways?
Ambassador Volker: I was very impressed with the U.S. Congressional delegation that came here. It was led on the House side by Congressman Mike Turner and led on the Senate side by Senator Dan Sullivan and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse. They showed a lot of bipartisan unity about support for Ukraine and a lot of confidence that the aid package for Ukraine would eventually pass because it enjoys such bipartisan support. They also offered a lot of reassurance about the U.S. commitment to NATO. That was very impressive to see because the media reports the most extreme remarks and those that will cause the most hysteria, but when you actually see the congressmen and senators here and their engagement with interlocutors in Europe, they were a very solid presence.
The Cipher Brief: How were those bi-partisan sentiments accepted? Because if you do just read the headlines, it seems like the United States is truly a country so deeply divided that it’s difficult to know what’s going to happen in the future.
Ambassador Volker: The U.S. presence here was a bit reassuring. Personal contacts with people who are actually in the process like these senators and like these congressmen, that is reassuring to a lot of our allies. But of course, they just can’t turn off the noise that comes from the media and other statements like those that former President Trump made. So, there’s always a little bit of concern under the surface there, but I think it did some good to show a sense that we’ve still got this.
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