The Cipher Brief interviewed a number of national security experts on the sidelines of this year’s Munich Security Conference. Here are key takeaways from White House and National Security Correspondent for The New York Times David Sanger. Our interview has been lightly edited.
Watch our conversation on The Cipher Brief’s digital channel.
The Cipher Brief: It’s been a busy news weekend with the announcement of the death of Alexei Navalny in Russia, but what are the big themes that emerged from the conference for you?
Sanger: If you compare this to two years ago, that’s when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was here and declared that he did not believe Russia would really invade. The European diplomats and intelligence officials wandering around behind me here, they didn’t believe he would either. They all were saying, “No, it’s a bluff.”
Last year when they were here, Zelensky did not show up, but many people thought Ukraine was on the verge of kicking Russia out of Ukraine entirely, and there would be a huge victory for NATO and a humiliation for Putin.
This is the year of Putin’s revenge. He’s doing better in Ukraine. The Ukrainians themselves are running low on ammunition in part because the United States Congress has not been able to come to a conclusion on whether it’s going to issue $60 billion more in aid. And Putin, of course, as you just said, was responsible, either directly or indirectly, for the death of Navalny. All of which is Putin saying, “I can do what I want.” And I think what you’re hearing here is a deep concern among the Europeans that at the moment of maximum challenge from Putin, they’re worried about whether the United States is still with them in a big way.
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The Cipher Brief: Unfortunately, President Zelensky’s message is exactly the same this year that he doesn’t need a ride, and he still needs ammunition. Shifting to the U.S., what is the mood among European leaders about the state of mind of presidential candidate Donald Trump and some of the comments he’s been making about NATO. Are they worried about a Trump presidency?
Sanger: Oh, they clearly are, but what’s really interesting to me – and I’ve been living in Europe for the past two, two and a half months just on a temporary assignment from The Times – before Trump made that statement, they were worried about what would happen in a second Biden administration because they were concerned that Congress was just not going to spend the kind of money that it has spent until now on Ukraine and so forth. After the Trump statement, they were worried about whether NATO would be around if Trump got re-elected, or whether it would be picked apart.
By inviting a foreign power to attack a NATO nation and saying you might not come to their defense, that would essentially be the dismantlement of NATO.
The nervousness is pretty high and understandable, but at the same time, you can also say to the Europeans, I think, say fairly, that they were sitting around thinking if they just reach 2% of their GDP in defense spending, all the pressure would be off of them. The fact of the matter is they may have to do many times multiples of that, and they don’t want to confront that reality.
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The Cipher Brief: Are people talking about China?
Sanger: They are talking about China a lot. And I would say that the meeting that Secretary Blinken had with Wang Yi, his counterpart was more of a kind of normal diplomacy than we have seen with China in a long time. Remember a year ago was when the balloon incident happened and things were pretty tense. I think the meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping had things at least temporarily in a more stable phase. I don’t think it’s going to last, but for now that’s looking a little bit better. The long-term competitive issues with China still make them quite nervous here.
The Cipher Brief: Were there any wild-card moments during the conference there? Things you didn’t expect?
Sanger: The appearance of Alexei Navalny’s widow on the stage an hour and a half after we knew that he had died was emotional. It was remarkable. It was sad. She was already here and I think had been planning to speak to the group about working to win his release, and instead she was here on news of his death.
The Cipher Brief: Obviously his death is not in vain, as he’s inspired so many people to come out on the streets, but do you see any indication that his death might lead to some kind of action out of this group meeting in Munich?
Sanger: Not really. I thought it was interesting that President Biden several years ago, said if Navalny died, there would be serious consequences for Russia. We haven’t heard what those would be. And frankly, at this moment, name a sanction that hasn’t been enacted or evaded.
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