OPINION – It’s no secret that President-elect Donald Trump will be laser focused on his stated domestic and economic agendas when he takes up occupancy of the Oval Office in January, and on top of that, he must contend with the war in Ukraine and China’s growing military capability, but the Middle East badly needs his immediate attention.
With the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon – and with Israel and Iran trading larger and more powerful punches, along with more U.S. forces committed to the region – an immediate path to reset deterrence and off-ramp from what is a clear road to a larger war is urgent.
Not addressing the Middle East up front could lead the administration into a policy trap of ineffectiveness by focusing internally while attempting to get out of a conflict in the Middle East (or avoid getting into one), that ultimately leads to being swept in even more deeply.
The starkest example was a policy of going to zero in Iraq that ultimately spawned the birth of ISIS. More recently, as we watch the Houthis, with direct Iranian support, shut down global shipping traffic in the Red Sea and Israel and Iran overtly attacking each other.
The end result this time will be the same – more commitment of precious U.S. resources into the region as a reaction to events, as opposed to thoughtful U.S. leadership that moves us away from a path to war and instead toward resetting regional deterrence with Arab defense by Arab nations.
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What the new administration should deal with Iran but not go down this road alone nor only with Israel. Of course, it will need to work on a rapid end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. However, as a cornerstone, President Trump and his team will also need a strategy that leverages a clear reset in U.S. bilateral defense relations with two key Arab partners, Saudia Arabia and the UAE. To begin to rebuild these bridges will come with two immediate strategic benefits: It is required for any chance of a lasting end to the war in Gaza. The Kingdom and the Emirates will be critical to implementing any sustainable peace after the conflict ends and most importantly, it will be a critical element of resetting deterrence with Iran.
Iran’s worst possible outcome from their view would be to see an assertive U.S. President and U.S. Carrier Strike Groups in the Gulf with Saudi Arabia and UAE both having binding security agreements with the U.S.
This requires two immediate actions: First and foremost- the appointment of an experienced Middle East team that is trusted in the region with a clear policy mandate and timeline and then to immediately set a path towards what both of those nations desire – binding security agreements that will last beyond any one U.S. election cycle.
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With control of both the House and the Senate, the Trump Administration has a unique opportunity to enact this reset in a lasting way.
To put this in perspective, these security agreements will not need to be NATO Article 5 level commitments, nor even akin to what we have with Japan. Instead, they can be along the lines of a commitment that, if those nations were attacked, the U.S. would guarantee to provide a holistic package of our very best Intelligence and Warning capabilities, access to resupply of U.S. weapons systems, as well as a team of advisors and planners to work side-by-side with their defense organizations.
Not going down this path immediately, risks the U.S. being dragged into a regional conflict in the Middle East at a time when we should be focused on our domestic agenda and economy.
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