
The US, Europe and a Ukraine-Russia peace deal
EXPERT INTERVIEWS – As global leaders gather at the Munich Security conference this weekend, they confront profound questions about Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Trump […] More
OPINION — The October 1 debate between Senators Tim Walz and JD Vance dealt with just one foreign policy question: the widening war in the Middle East. Among subjects not discussed: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its threat to use nuclear weapons; China’s attempt to intimidate Taiwan, tension in the South China Sea and Beijing’s nuclear buildup; North Korea’s nuclear and missile expansion and its threat to use nuclear weapons; and how the axis of authoritarian states (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea) is determined to change the world order.
Russia and China
Russia had been on a roll – its 2008 invasion of Georgia and 2014 seizure of Crimea and then the February 2022 the invasion of Ukraine. But Ukraine surprised an over-confident Vladimir Putin, and more than two and a half years later the war continues, with Russian casualties exceeding 500,000.
From the first days of the Ukrainian resistance, Mr. Putin had threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons, and he recently announced a new nuclear doctrine: aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear one, should be considered a joint attack. Moreover, Russia would be prepared to use nuclear weapons “upon receipt of reliable information of a massive launch of air and space attack weapons and their crossing of the state border.”
A new nuclear arms race
Russia currently has about 5,580 nuclear weapons with 1,710 deployed (the U.S. has about 5,044 nuclear weapons, with about 1,770 deployed). Russia and the U.S. adhere to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), limiting the number of deployed nuclear weapons. Last year, Mr. Putin announced that Russia was suspending participation in the New START treaty with the U.S., the only treaty that limited both countries’ nuclear weapons.
China is now focusing on an ambitious nuclear expansion program of its own. It currently has about 500 nuclear weapons and is expected to have about 1,000 nuclear weapons by 2030, and 1,500 by 2035. China is building additional missile silos: 120 in Gansu Province and about 110 in Xinjiang Province. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Forces, established by President Xi Jinping, is receiving significant resources for this nuclear modernization program. China is not a member of New START and continues to refuse to discuss its nuclear program with the U.S.
This is the China that continues to encircle and threaten Taiwan and claim sovereignty over the South China Sea, despite a United Nations Arbitration Court ruling in 2016 that ruled in favor of the Philippines and said China’s actions were unlawful. China continues to ignore this ruling.
This is also the China that continues to provide material support to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
North Korea and Iran
North Korea has about 50 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to produce 7 nuclear weapons per year. The country also has a chemical and biological program and in 2002 became the only country to withdraw from the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Since the failure of the February 2019 U.S.-North Korea Hanoi Summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been in a race to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them, as far as the U.S., with the Hwasong-17, a mobile Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of carrying multiple re-entry vehicles (MRVs), with a range of 15,000 kilometers, capable of reaching the entire U.S.
Earlier this month, Mr. Kim threatened to use nuclear weapons and destroy South Korea if provoked. The North Korean state constitution will be modified to reject reconciliation with South Korea, which they view as the enemy. Mr. Kim made it clear: North Korea would use all offensive forces without hesitation, to include nuclear weapons, if South Korea encroaches on the sovereignty of North Korea.
This is the North Korea that is aligned with the Russian Federation, with both nations pledging to come to the defense of the other if attacked. Indeed, it is North Korea that is providing Mr. Putin with artillery shells and ballistic missiles for his war against Ukraine.
Iran is in a category by itself. The Iranian regime is enriching uranium to 60%, enabling the country to produce weapons grade uranium in a few weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which monitors Iran’s nuclear-related activities, has repeatedly expressed concern about not getting the access its monitors require to certify Iran is in compliance with IAEA safeguards.
Moreover, Iran’s ballistic missile program is impressive – twelve types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles. And it is only a matter of time before Iran has an Intercontinental Missile capability capable of targeting Europe and the U.S. This in addition to its material support to its proxy militias: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s goal, and the goal of those militant groups: The annihilation of Israel.
This is the “axis of authoritarian states.” Their goal is to change the liberal international order.
The 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly featured 87 heads of state addressing the world. The President of the General Assembly spoke of “laying the foundation for a sustainable, just and peaceful global order – for all people and all nations.” These words of hope fly in the face of a dangerous world in disarray.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
Related Articles
EXPERT INTERVIEWS – As global leaders gather at the Munich Security conference this weekend, they confront profound questions about Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Trump […] More
EXPERT INTERVIEWS – President Donald Trump is defied diplomatic norms with a pair of conversations this week over bringing an end to Russia’s war in […] More
DEEP DIVE – On January 10, the oil tanker Eventin was steaming westward from Russia along Germany’s Baltic coast, bucking eight-foot waves and biting winds, […] More
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – On Tuesday, with Jordan’s King Abdullah II at his side, President Donald Trump exuded confidence that the Arab world will […] More
EXPERT INTERVIEW — World leaders and tech executives are gathered in Paris for the latest global summit on artificial intelligence. The French AI summit, co-hosted by […] More
EXPERT INTERVIEWS – As part of the Trump Administration’s aim to reduce government payrolls, it has taken several actions involving the FBI. More than two […] More
Search