OPINION – Russian President Vladimir Putin has started the largest conflict on the European continent since World War II. He is the architect and driving force in the axis of authoritarian states now doing their level best to destroy the “rules-based” international order that has brought the planet so much prosperity and large periods of relative peace for the past seventy years.
He is also engaged in a global and multidimensional war against the West in every form short of direct military action. The Russian leader’s current ambition is to – by way of force – reincorporate the sovereign country of Ukraine into the “lost” territories of Imperial Russia.
Kyiv understands that any negotiated solution to end the war that Putin started in 2022 with the slaughter of innocent Ukrainians, will eventually mean the end of Ukraine as a nation. And Ukrainians also know that this war will not end as long as Putin is in power.
Many underestimate the depth of both the Russian leader’s ambition to conquer Ukraine and his loathing of the West. Putin just turned 72-years-old. He still has time to grind down the Ukraine in a war of attrition. He thinks he can wait for the West to lose interest and reduce or end its support for Ukraine. And sadly, he may not be wrong.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy presented a ‘victory plan’ to leaders in Washington – a message that was carefully crafted for the audience he needs the most right now – those who can support the continued provision of military and financial aid and those who can encourage the Biden administration to remove restrictions on the use of American weaponry that can strike military targets deep inside of Russia. But by most public accounts, the response to his plan was lukewarm at best.
What Zelensky presented was a plan that can be spoken about in Washington and European capitals, but what he knows is that there is another reality – a whispered one – that in order for Zelensky and Ukraine to win, the Putin regime needs to be replaced. That is plan that can both bring an end to this war and bring an end to the chaos Putin is encouraging around the world.
Putin’s regime today is brittle and its structure is vulnerable. There have been glimpses of vulnerability for years. Two examples: Putin’s paranoid behavior during the pandemic and his lack of action as the now deceased leader of The Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, led a mutiny by marching toward Moscow. The lack of resistance by the Russian army was telling.
Zelenskiy and Ukrainians know first-hand about Putin’s autocracy. Ukrainians are scattered throughout Russia. Their input is likely to have been critical in formulating a plan to end the war. But the key first step is for Ukraine to take the fight to Russia and to make the cost of the war more visible to the Russian people.
Not a Subscriber+Member but need access to the national security content that the experts read? Let’s get you in.
Despite unreliable polling in Russia, there is reason to believe that support for both Putin and the war are softening. Young and educated Russians have fled the country and continue to flee the Russian Federation in numbers that are catastrophic for a country trying to keep pace with the developed world. And Putin is now quietly referred to in some circles as мотылек, “the moth.” The image he has tried to build of himself of a strong and brave leader is being mocked.
The corruption and incompetence of the Russian military are consequences of Putin’s flawed governance model. Russia’s strategic position has weakened with the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO. Russia’s economy and particularly its defense industrial base have been weakened by sanctions and brain drain. Russia has become a junior economic and strategic partner to China. This is certainly visible and offensive to many in Russia’s military and elite circles.
The U.S. and the West cannot publicly articulate a strategy of regime change in Russia, but Ukraine can and should. And the U.S. and West must do their part to help overtly by giving Ukraine the tools and the latitude it need to use those tools. Covertly, the U.S. and the West should be messaging Russia’s elites about the cost of Putin’s leadership and encouraging them to understand the benefits of regime change.
Inside the U.S., there is a view that simply providing Ukraine with political and economic support, weapons and munitions, and sanctioning Russia is enough and stops short of crossing any red lines that could lead to broader war. Many think that over time, giving just enough will bring an acceptable end to the conflict. It will not.
Isolationists in the U.S. argue that the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with our interests. They are absolutely wrong.
Putin announced his undeclared war on the West during his speech to the Munich Security Conference in 2007, just before he invaded the Republic of Georgia. In 2014, he orchestrated the takeover of Crimea and the establishment of the Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples Republics in the territory of Ukraine. He further outlines his thinking in his 2021 essay on the “Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” It is his warped version of Mein Kampf.
At Putin’s direction, Russia has conducted disabling cyberattacks on neighboring states such as Estonia and has tried to conduct coups in any number of states in southeastern Europe to include Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine. The list of aggressions Putin has orchestrated in the past 15 years is nearly inexhaustible. His aggressive actions will not stop for as long as he remains in power.
Who’s Reading this? More than 500K of the most influential national security experts in the world. Need full access to what the Experts are reading?
Time is running out for Ukraine. The horrible mathematics of war favor the Russian strategy of attrition. Let us not stand by and watch Ukraine bleed out and be left with a world where Putin has won the first major victory for the Axis of Evil.
Let us recognize the critical moment in history we now face and show the same resolve that the greatest generation showed when facing the Axis powers in the last world war. There is a choice to be made and we should not forget the lessons of the past. Incrementalism is equivalent to appeasement.
After the Munich Agreement in 1936, in response to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s assertion that the agreement had brought about “peace with honor”, Winston Churchill declared, “You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war.”
Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? Watch our weekly show, The World Deciphered as Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly sits down with CIA Director Bill Burns to talk about The Middle East, Russia, China and the thing that keeps him up at night.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.
