OPINION — A firestorm of analysis, opinions and speculation has been unleashed on all of us attempting to understand and explain what the “aborted coup” by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group means. Most claim this indicates how much Vladimir Putin’s stature and power have plummeted in the wake of his Ukraine war. This may be so, but not quite the way most commentators have it. I take a different angle. I think we are witnessing a clever theatre piece orchestrated by Putin, a man whose powers, although truly threatened, are not as weakened as portrayed. What I propose here is quite in line with the Russian playbook going back to the time of the Trust and even further back. Deceptions layered upon deeper deceptions. Russians have a lot of experience with such things; they’re good at that. Aren’t Russians the best chess players in the world? I think Putin is playing three-dimensional chess with us all.
We probably do understand Putin’s Plan A, his move on Ukraine. Putin expected his short “special military operation” to have culminated in just about a week’s time with an easy triumph—his next step in reconstituting the tragedy of the lost Soviet/Russian Empire. Putin calculated that it was well worth a try, and he figured that world conditions were ripe for it. But Plan A didn’t work. Time to think up Plans B and C. Plan B was to prosecute the Ukraine invasion the best he could with his almost limitless resources and hope that Western powers would tire of supporting Ukraine. He counted on wearing us down. But Putin is former KGB. Always have on the back burner Plans C and even D.
Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member.
Sign Up Log In
