OPINION — A firestorm of analysis, opinions and speculation has been unleashed on all of us attempting to understand and explain what the “aborted coup” by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group means. Most claim this indicates how much Vladimir Putin’s stature and power have plummeted in the wake of his Ukraine war. This may be so, but not quite the way most commentators have it. I take a different angle. I think we are witnessing a clever theatre piece orchestrated by Putin, a man whose powers, although truly threatened, are not as weakened as portrayed. What I propose here is quite in line with the Russian playbook going back to the time of the Trust and even further back. Deceptions layered upon deeper deceptions. Russians have a lot of experience with such things; they’re good at that. Aren’t Russians the best chess players in the world? I think Putin is playing three-dimensional chess with us all.
We probably do understand Putin’s Plan A, his move on Ukraine. Putin expected his short “special military operation” to have culminated in just about a week’s time with an easy triumph—his next step in reconstituting the tragedy of the lost Soviet/Russian Empire. Putin calculated that it was well worth a try, and he figured that world conditions were ripe for it. But Plan A didn’t work. Time to think up Plans B and C. Plan B was to prosecute the Ukraine invasion the best he could with his almost limitless resources and hope that Western powers would tire of supporting Ukraine. He counted on wearing us down. But Putin is former KGB. Always have on the back burner Plans C and even D.
Did you ever wonder why Prigozhin got away with so many harsh criticisms of the top echelon of Russia’s military? It was “explained” by many that it seemed to serve Putin’s purposes to allow one barking dog. But suppose there was a deeper purpose. If Plan B, prosecuting the war along more conventional lines because it just might pay off, and if it also unfortunately fails, what then? For Putin’s survival as head of state, he would need others to blame it on. That makes sense because there are only two (only two!), Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, who need to be blamed for the failure. Decidedly not Putin. Which explains why Putin was never directly blamed by Prigozhin for the failures, only the two named prime scapegoats.
Subscriber+Members have access to the exclusive intelligence report from former member of CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service Paul Kolbe as he shares perspectives on Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia, Moscow’s Plan B and NATO’s looming challenge ahead of the Vilnius summit.
Putin was in cahoots all along with Prigozhin on a deeper level, setting the stage for current dramatic events—Plan C: A surprise coup whose timing couldn’t be more perfect.
Putin is no dope. He assessed that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was probably capable of overwhelming his diminished military resources and options. Triggering Plan C, carefully constructed over many months by Prigozhin’s blustery drama school rants, now became a timely option. By no means his preference. But given the circumstances, when you’re in a corner, a useful chess move. Plan C would be one way for Putin to masterfully play a bad hand. And so Russian. The “coup” was unexpected, shocking, kind of exciting, unnerving, and most of all, distracting. Now Putin could act as the fierce protector of the Russian Rodina, the savior of his nation from an internal threat, the insurer of its very survival. Wrapping himself in his national flag, Putin can now justify taking even more drastic and repressive steps, which we may see unfolding over the next few weeks.
Where have we seen this before? Turkey’s Erdogan cleverly countered his supposed coup because he saw it as an opportunity to push back at his internal enemies by, one way or the other, taking them off the political playing field, and thereby reshaping his nation to better fulfill his political aims. Putin watched this play out in Turkey and must have thought it’s not a bad idea.
And what about poor Shoigu and Gerasimov? Pity them for they are expendable, set up for over a year to be the sacrificial knights or bishops in this middle stage of Putin’s chess game. They are teed up to take the blame. And Putin will be the hero. Although he was disappointed by trusting his top military counselors, he will bravely persevere because his nation needs him to rise above this sad occasion and do what is necessary for Mother Russia. Putin will explain that invading Ukraine was a truly high-minded and worthwhile cause, but it was undone by incompetents who did not deserve Putin’s and his nations’ trust and confidence. Perhaps an announcement will come that a strategic withdrawal from Ukraine is necessary and justifiable for now, to be regarded only as a temporary setback that Putin will soon repair.
What about the way this has played out?
A coup that is entirely bloodless, over in less than 24 hours. How often does this happen in a real coup? It’s more like something you would see on stage at an opera. No real blood gets shed that would uncomfortably complicate the story.
Who can believe that an apparatchik like Lukashenko of Belarus has such deft diplomatic skills that in a rapidly moving situation he comes up with a negotiated solution within a matter of hours that is satisfactory to two brilliant game players like Putin and Prigozhin? Please. Talk about a well-prepared and stage-managed script.
What’s in it for Prigozhin?
Think of the proverbial two scorpions in a flask. How do they both survive with each other in the same flask? Prigozhin may be looking at a princely payoff since Putin must be the wealthiest man on this planet. Promises by Putin that Prigozhin’s treason charges will be dropped would not necessarily be all that convincing. However, almost certainly, they both have plenty of evidence against each other. Can Putin rely on Prigozhin’s silence? As Mark Twain said: “Two can keep a secret if one of them is dead.” However, Prigozhin is no fool and is well-protected by very seasoned Wagner troops. And he may have arranged for an enormous trove of incriminating tapes and documents to be released upon his untimely death. I think these two scorpions remain of great use to each other—but they must never neglect keeping their eyes on each other and calculating several steps ahead.
In summary, this story of an attempted coup stinks. We’ve all been taken for a ride.
Keep watching for this season’s next episode because the series isn’t over.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspectives and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business
