In Three European Elections, the Kremlin Squares off Against the West

By Daniel Fried

Daniel Fried played a key role designing and implementing American policy in Europe after the fall of the Soviet Union. He served as Special Assistant and NSC Senior Director for Presidents Clinton and Bush, Ambassador to Poland, and Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, and as State Department Coordinator for Sanctions Policy. Ambassador Fried is currently a Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

OPINION — While the world is focused on the outcome of this week’s U.S. presidential election, and what it could mean for a range of global issues, three elections have taken place in Europe that speak to the tug between Russian influence and the lure of the West. The three votes — in Bulgaria, Georgia and yesterday in Moldova – had different outcomes, but they were all significant bellwethers for democracy and Russian influence in the region. 

The results have been something of a split decision. In Moldova, voters reelected a President with an unabashed pro-European stance – despite an onslaught of Russian disinformation and money. In Bulgaria, the vote was split between several parties with a range of views towards Russia and the EU. And in Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party was declared the winner in a parliamentary election that the opposition and several foreign governments and international observers have said was fraudulent. Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Tbilisi to denounce the vote.

All three nations spent decades during the Cold War under the grip of Soviet influence; and all three have seen — more than three decades after the fall of the Soviet Union — evidence of Moscow seeking to reestablish political influence over their countries. 

Cipher Brief chief international correspondent Ia Meurmishvili spoke with Ambassador Daniel Fried, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, to discuss these elections, what they mean for the region, and what the U.S. and E.U. should do to counter Russian meddling.

This conversation was edited for length and clarity.

Meurmishvili: Moldova, Georgia and Bulgaria all had very important elections in the past couple of weeks. Is there a uniting factor of some kind in these elections – and why should Americans care about the results?

Fried: America has had an interest in a free, undivided Europe without dictators controlling it. We fought two World Wars and the Cold War for that purpose. We decided, Democrats and Republicans, that it was in our American national interest that Europe not fall under the boot of a foreign dictator. So that remains a pretty good objective, especially when we see a foreign dictator, Vladimir Putin, trying to reestablish an empire through sabotage, disinformation, and, if necessary for him, war. 

These three elections were all very different. And the situations of the countries are different. But in all cases, what we see is a struggle with high stakes between those political forces, left and right, who want to integrate with Europe, who believe in democracy and an alliance with the United States or friendship with Europe, and those who believe in nationalism and linking themselves with the Russian Empire and Putin’s empire.

We’re seeing variations of all of these. In Moldova, you have a pro-Western, pro-democracy president dealing with massive amounts of Russian disinformation and money. And the Moldovan people, narrowly, did vote to add EU membership to the Moldovan constitution. So they voted for a pro-free-world, pro-European constitution. That was important.

In Georgia, you see an authoritarian pro-Russian party apparently trying to steal an election. I say “apparently” because the final analysis has not been made. But the evidence of serious regime distortion of the vote is pretty strong – mainly that the credible exit polls and the official results were vastly different. And that’s hard to explain, except by the regime putting its thumb on the scales.

And in Bulgaria, they’ve had a number of elections. But you had more or less the pro-Western, pro-European forces do pretty well. And the pro-Russian party not doing as well. So Bulgaria, which is in NATO and in the European Union, is still a target for Russia because of historic Bulgarian sympathies for Russia. But these sympathies do not translate into desire to join Putin’s attempted empire. 

So three different elections. One underlying theme.

Meurmishvili: Moldova is smaller than Georgia – but both of them are very small. Politically, economically, they seemed more vulnerable to the Russian disinformation campaigns.

Fried: Disinformation and spreading around money. 

Meurmishvili: How were the two countries, and their elections, different?

Fried: [In Moldova] you have a pro-Western president and a reasonable pro-European government. In Georgia, you have a pro-Western president, but she does not have any executive authority. And you have a government which is increasingly authoritarian, doing things like threatening to outlaw the opposition, and they do seem to have infiltrated what should be independent government agencies like the Central Election Commission.

Take a step back. In both countries, you have many people just struggling economically. The populist nationalist parties are able to capitalize on this frustration. In Moldova, in minority areas, and in Georgia you have smaller towns and villages, who just want a better life. The ruling party Georgian Dream is able to appeal to these people. Georgian Dream does have an electorate; they didn’t make that up. But they do appear to have manipulated the vote in various ways, because they don’t have the support to be able to form a government, at least not honestly. And in all of these cases, you have the Russians on the side of those political forces who are opposed to a European future for their countries because, frankly, a European future means less corruption. And they probably like the corruption. It enriches them. So this is a nasty business.

Meurmishvili: Where do you see Russia’s role in this?

Fried: Russia will support, I think, any government attempts to maintain power. From the Kremlin point of view, the more isolated Georgia is from the West, the better for Russia.

Much depends on the Georgian people themselves. It’s a staple of Kremlin propaganda that the United States engineered the Rose Revolution in Georgia (in November 2023) and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine (from late November 2004 to January 2005), and that’s just nonsense. We didn’t engineer any such thing. We were taken by surprise by both pro-Western movements. And it was the Georgian people and the Ukrainian people who simply were tired of authoritarianism and incompetence and demanded something better. Now, what the Georgian people will do in this situation, I can’t say. Russia will be fine with any harsh measures that the Georgian government imposes on its people to maintain power, because the Kremlin wants Georgia to be isolated and weak and dependent on the Kremlin.

And what Georgian Dream wants, I can’t say. But their actions are actually weakening Georgia, because the more isolated Georgia is, the more Georgia is dependent upon Russia, which makes no secret that it wants its empire back, and Georgia as a part of that empire.

Georgians have a long history, over a century, of what I would call liberal Western politics. I don’t mean left or right. I mean in the 19th century, Georgia was a country where there was a certain liberal spirit. That showed itself during the First Georgian Republic from 1918, until Stalin crushed it. And so Georgian civil society is not something created by Washington. It’s native to Georgia. It has a long tradition. Georgians are proud of this. I’ve heard them talk about this at length. And whether Russia can crush this using the tools of the Georgian Dream government, or what tactics Georgian Dream uses to crush this, I can’t say. But this depends on the Georgian people and then the United States and Europe need to speak clearly, now, and find ways to support the Georgian people in what may be a prolonged and difficult period ahead.

Meurmishvili: Do you think that Georgia is on the verge of a revolution?Fried: It’s not for me to say. And the last thing Georgians need are Americans, outsiders, giving them advice. Support is good. Advice is something I wouldn’t dream of. Georgians need to make up their minds what to do. And Georgians are smart. And President Zourabichvili is a deeply experienced, strong and capable person. I’ve known her for many, many years, and she’s not a partisan person by nature. She was trying to be a president for all the Georgians. And like many Georgians, she just had enough of the Georgian Dream authoritarianism. But what Georgians do now is something I can’t say. But the United States, and I think Europe also, need to respect the Georgian people and invest in the Georgian people, because the Georgian people are smart and determined to find a European future for themselves.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.  Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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