In Lithuania, Fears of Being ‘Next on the Menu’ for Russian Aggression

EXPERT INTERVIEW — Russia’s pursuit to expand its influence in the former Soviet sphere is in full swing — and manifesting itself in different ways. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is nearing its three-year mark; the pro-Russia ruling party in Georgia is working to keep that nation from tilting towards Europe; Moscow is accused of foreign interference in the elections of Romania, Moldova and Georgia; and the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — are increasingly worried that they may soon find themselves in the  Kremlin’s crosshairs.

Beyond these overt actions and concerns, there is a growing body of so-called “gray-zone” activities that have been traced to Russia – from alleged sabotage of critical infrastructure like undersea cables; to arson attacks targeting cargo flights in Europe; foreign assassinations; and cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.

Against this backdrop, Cipher Brief Expert and former Senior CIA Officer Ralph Goff spoke with Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly from Vilnius, Lithuania, to talk about Russian influence in the region and the implications of the various Russian efforts.

They spoke for a recent episode of The World Deciphered.

The following transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Kelly: There’s a lot going on in the region where you are right now, when it comes to Russian influence there. What’s the sentiment in Lithuania? Are they concerned about what’s happening in Georgia and the broader threat of Russian influence?

Goff: Yes, absolutely. During the Soviet era, you had the three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and they were very different from the rest of the Soviet Union. I remember coming here in the late 1980s before the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the early part of my career, and there was a completely different vibe. It was Soviet, but it wasn’t. The people here were different. 

And then you looked at all the official maps in the United States, they all had a little asterisk next to the Baltic Republic that said, “The U.S. government has never recognized the annexation of the Baltic States by the Soviet Union.” OK, that was nice to say, but then there was nothing behind it. So now Lithuania is looking at what’s happening in Georgia, they’re looking at what’s happening in Ukraine, they’re looking at what’s happening in Moldova, Romania, and they’re wondering, OK, so if these countries fall, are they going to be another asterisk on the map in the United States? We don’t recognize their annexation, but [there is] nothing we can do about it? So yes, there’s great concern here about events in all those countries.

Kelly: Lithuania has been very involved in trying to help gather intelligence to support Ukraine in their effort. How would you describe the nature of that intelligence relationship these days?

Goff: Lithuania is a country of about three million people. They have met their spending requirements for NATO. They spend roughly two and a half percent [of GDP on defense]. They’re aiming for three percent, four percent. The government’s even talking about shooting for five percent. But the one constant has been support, not just for NATO, but support for Ukraine. One of the things I noticed on the mass transit buses – on the front, you have this electric sign that says where the bus is going, and it alternates with “Vilnius loves Ukraine.” I’ve seen as many Ukrainian flags around the city here as I’ve seen in Kyiv. 

There’s a great amount of sympathy for Ukraine. And not just because it’s another victim of Russian oppression and the Baltics fear that, but also because of the lessons of history. They look back and they remember that asterisk on the maps from the United States. This is a country that is very sensitive to what’s happening next door. Being a frontline state, this country not only has met the expense requirements of NATO — but they’re trying to go beyond that. They have literally stripped their military warehouses to send everything they can to the front in Ukraine. I think they’re somewhat frustrated by the fact that they’re a small country, they’re leading the way, where’s the rest of Europe?

Kelly: What is the sentiment there about the incoming Trump administration? What are they expecting or hoping for?  

Goff: Naturally, after, “How are you doing?” that was usually the second question here. What do we expect from these guys? I give the Lithuanians credit. They’re approaching this with an open mind. I know from the people I’ve talked to that for months [even] before the election, they were reaching out to people in Trump’s circle to try and get a feel for where this was headed. 

But I also give them credit for having an open mind. No one here has hit the panic button. They look at President Trump, and they agreed with his criticism of NATO. They agreed with his criticism of countries like Germany who weren’t meeting the expenditure requirements. So they’re very pragmatic. And basically their only question is, OK, we have a new administration, a new approach. Let’s see where this goes. Not once have I heard anyone here complain or say, What’s wrong with America? What’s wrong with this? They’ve been very pragmatic in their approach. Very open-minded.

Kelly: I think it would be fair to say that if there’s confusion about what the next Trump administration might bring, it all kind of boils down to the relationship between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. If President-elect Trump does make good on his promise and bring about a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, what would Vilnius most want to see included in any kind of agreement, so that they know they have future protections?

Goff: Along with this pragmatism that they look at with the new administration, their expectations are actually kind of low. They look at it from the viewpoint of, What’s next? If Ukraine falls, are we next? There’s a lot of people in the West who say, No, this is just panic-mongering, this is just irrational fears. But when you spent seventy years as an asterisk on the maps of the United States, I think you’ve earned the right to have a little bit of skepticism. 

This is a country that in World War II was squeezed between Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Soviet Union, so they’ve learned that you can’t just take things at face value. You’ve got to have not just diplomatic agreements, like the Budapest Agreement that the Ukrainians are so fond of complaining about, but you’ve got to have real guarantees. They’re realists. They understand that maybe Ukraine membership in NATO is a tough ask and maybe not in the cards now, but they are absolutely interested in seeing some kind of strategic security architecture that protects Ukraine from a renewed Russian assault if there is some sort of peace agreement, because they look at themselves as next on the menu. One thing I’ve heard from all sides here is, If Ukraine falls and Putin is emboldened, it’s not just some kind of cliche metaphor that he’s going to turn his attention to the Baltic states. They look at his past announcements, his past speeches where he’s claimed that Ukraine is not a real country, it’s really part of Russia. He has said the same thing about the Baltic states.

Kelly: Given what’s happening right now in Georgia, given the fact that Russia actually invaded Georgia several years ago, which people forget, and they still have troops there, given what’s happening in Ukraine, given concerns in Bulgaria about the onslaught of Russian influence there, could you give us a quick assessment, in your opinion, about the level of Russian misinformation, disinformation, influence and gray-zone tactics? 

Goff: The Georgia question is interesting. There you have a situation where you have a government that’s headed by a Georgian oligarch who’s basically in Putin’s pocket. He’s effectively bought the media, he’s paid off enough supporters in the government apparatus to put his own people in there. The Lithuanians are looking at that and saying, OK, if the worst case scenario can happen to a country like that, what happens to us if we’re left defenseless? Will we be at the mercy of some oligarch who decides to cash in with Vladimir Putin? The shame of Georgia is that this is a country that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, went through years of deprivation and civil war and economic collapse. I spent a lot of time there in the mid-1990s. The Georgian people were very culturally proud, very highly educated. They had their own language and alphabet that they kept alive for 70 years of Soviet occupation. And in the end, they were burning their books and chopping up their pianos for firewood to keep their apartments warm.

So that’s a worst-case scenario. The Lithuanians, they look at Georgia, they look at the potential fall of Moldova, they look at the lack of adequate response in their opinion from NATO, and they’re wondering, Well, who’s next?

Kelly: I think it’s important once in a while to take a step back and remind people why this matters. Why does it matter specifically to the United States and to Europe if Russia takes over that region — in terms of influence, at least?

Goff: That’s a great question. And frankly, the outgoing Biden administration has failed to make that argument to the American people. As for the Trump administration, it remains to be seen if they will be persuaded to make that argument to the American people, because they’re still weighing where they want to go on this. The Lithuanians asked me, Where’s Trump going to go on this? I said, I don’t even think they know yet.

But for me, I look at the war in Ukraine. I look at the political unrest in Georgia. I look at the political turmoil in Romania. You look at the unrest in the Middle East, the conflict between Iran and Israel. It’s all linked, and what we’re looking at here is that these aren’t just conflicts of nation states — these are conflicts of values. When you look at Russia, who’s on their side? It’s Russia, North Korea, Iran — and with China lurking in the background. That should tell people all they need to know [about] who’s on what side. Think about going to that dinner party with those guys. This is not just one state against another. This is a battle of cultural values.

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