EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – As Chinese President Xi Jinping presides over this week’s 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, tensions between the US and China have been unfolding at a breakneck pace, underscoring the vast complexity of the relationship between the two superpowers. As The Cipher Brief’s Open Source Report Podcast has been reporting, the Biden Administration’s recent decision to restrict China’s access to chip and semiconductor technology in order to slow Beijing’s military and economic growth is another sign of just how tensions are escalating. What’s at stake? The Cipher Brief spoke with Expert Liesl Jordan about what these latest moves mean for Chinese relations with the West and how the CCP Congress is likely thinking about them.
The Cipher Brief: If the 20th CCP Congress unfolds as Xi anticipates, what changes in policies, actions, and party-government structures might be expected? What are the key political, economic, and public policy factors Xi must consider in pursuing his strategies and ambitions for the country?
Jordan: The only domestic constants seem to be Xi’s determination to retain power, stifle dissent, ensure economic growth, and focus on the “5 Poisons” (Uighurs, Tibetans, Taiwanese, democracy activists, and Falungong, groups that offer alternatives to the CCP’s vision of the future). We’ll probably never know how hard China has been hit by COVID-19 but economic data would tend to indicate a reduction in industrial output which when combined with the perceived shortcomings in the CCP’s pandemic management call into question Xi’s and the CCP’s broader competency.
The Cipher Brief: Although the U.S. Administration has denied a change in China-Taiwan policy, what would be the implications of jettisoning “strategic ambiguity,” and how are China and the world likely to respond?
Jordan: President Biden’s statement on May 23 in Tokyo brought into question America’s adherence to a policy of strategic ambiguity on China and Taiwan but fell far short of transforming it into a policy of strategic clarity. Biden’s advisers were quick to point out that despite Biden’s comments that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against an attack from China, these were off-the-cuff comments. It’s unlikely that Biden – a foreign policy incrementalist – would be looking now to make a shift in the U.S.’s pragmatic approach to a four-decade long policy.
Despite the late former Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s urging that the U.S. provide clarity on its position on an aggressive and increasingly assertive China in the Taiwan straits, U.S. hawkishness on this issue would leave countries like Japan and Australia in a difficult position, especially if Taiwan were to feel emboldened enough to declare independence. That said, like the U.S., Australia under the most recent former Liberal government and now under the recently elected Labor Government has seen a whittling away of our own policy of strategic ambiguity in favor of clearer statements of intent, which support a global rules-based order, whether that be over China’s approach to Taiwan or Russia’s in the Ukraine.
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The Cipher Brief: What are the U.S. motivations for a guarantee of U.S. military involvement in defending Taiwan against an “unprecedented attack” by China?
Jordan: The dangers of facing off against China over Taiwan have never been higher; however, inaction by the US in the face of an increasingly aggressive China also carries great risk. First and foremost, the US’s commitment to Taiwan has wider implications for continued credibility of US strategic commitments in the Asia-Pacific region. The US still is seen as the guarantor of peace and stability in the region and a failure to step in over Taiwan may cause other countries to reconsider their own strategic relationships if they saw a real or perceived shift in the global order.
Taiwan is the US’s ninth largest trading partner with $90.6 billion in two-way trade. The disruption to supply chains during Covid-19 for critical technology componentry manufactured in Taiwan, e.g. semiconductors, went to the heart of the U.S. economy and had a direct impact on its ongoing health.
And more viscerally, Taiwan has undergone the sort of transition that many Americans would like to see take place in China – a transition to a democratic, peaceful, open and stable society based on the rule of law. The freedoms enjoyed by the Taiwanese are similar to those experienced by the people of the US, deepening the relationship beyond trade to include cultural and people to people linkages. For these reasons, Taiwan will appeal to US sensibilities as an old friend, trading partner and symbol of America’s role in the region and globally.
The Cipher Brief: What are China’s intentions toward Taiwan, and are there indications of the timetable China has in mind to ramp up diplomatic or military pressure on the island to bring about reunification?
Jordan: China’s intention remains constant. Its method and schedule are less fixed. China’s leadership may have detailed tactical plans, but their strategy is by choice, more flexible. It will be influenced and shaped by opportunities or external pressures affecting China’s Taiwan trajectory. China’s path to Taiwan will be adjusted to deal with prevailing conditions; climbing or descending, increasing or reducing, and choosing to fly around or through storms, depending on their intensity. We may well be on the road to heightened competition and even conflict but it’s far from a straight line.
The Cipher Brief: Have PRC calculations concerning military actions against Taiwan been influenced by events in Ukraine? What might be the unintended consequences of stiffening Western support of Taiwan?
Jordan: Ukraine is a consideration but not a template. China’s leaders will use Russia’s unsuccessful adventurism to draw lessons about Western triggers and limits on power. They will also analyse the Russian, Ukrainian and Western militaries’ performance. This analysis will doubtless extend to the Western alliance’s strengths and weaknesses. China’s aim will be to determine ways to complicate and constrain a similarly comprehensive response re Taiwan. China will be focused heavily on understanding and reducing the West’s ability to limit Chinese force projection across the Straits of Taiwan.
As for unintended consequences, these will probably be diplomatic rather than military – China will continue to portray stiffened or overt Western support as needless warmongering and interference in China’s internal affairs.
Is a US – China Face-off over Taiwan Looming?
The Cipher Brief: Although the “friendship” of Xi and Putin has been an oft-repeated theme of PRC-Russia relations, there has been no apparent surge in Chinese military or economic support. What are the prospects for more substantial forms of assistance and partnership between the two countries?
Jordan: The relationship between Russia and China has become noticeably closer in recent times. The partnership’s essential character – an anti-US bloc – will endure. But overt and intensified Chinese support to Russia has been affected by Putin’s failing Ukraine campaign.
Ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics it is believed that Putin informed Xi in advance of his plans to attack Ukraine, amassing his troops on the border but waiting to strike until after Xi’s all-important Games. Since then, Russia’s underwhelming military performance, apparent war crimes and inexplicable aggression has threatened to harm Xi domestically and amongst other countries he seeks to influence.
The cost of a personal friendship and alliance with Putin comes at a high a cost for Xi who has always favoured stability at home through economic prosperity. The war in Ukraine is hurting China and disrupting its trading routes and relationships. Xi is therefore likely to now proceed more cautiously. He is unlikely to engage in diplomatic or public displays of affection with his ‘loser’ partner, nor significantly advance their relationship. After all, China has its own reputation to consider and a large collection of other nations to influence. That said, the China-Russia relationship will probably continue to grow, especially as each perceives increasing threats against their interests and their ambitions.
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The Cipher Brief: How would you describe Taiwan’s reactions to recent events, and how might that reaction influence Xi’s decision-making?
Jordan: Taiwan’s responses seem to be within established patterns and boundaries, despite escalated rhetoric and posturing after China’s response to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. It appears that China is not overly concerned about Taiwan’s reactions, noting that they already have a clear view of Taiwan’s capabilities and decision making. For China, it’s about how the West weighs in.
President Biden’s recent comments committing the US to a military response should China move on Taiwan are probably Xi’s main focus. He will be trying to figure out if Biden’s statements are a clear signaling of intent or just unguided shots from the hip.
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