OPINION — The Biden-Xi Summit of November 2023 was a step in the right direction. But it was only a step. Restoring military-to-military communications and China’s commitment to stem the export of precursor chemicals related to the production of the opioid fentanyl were major – and expected – deliverables from the summit. But the trust deficit in bilateral relations looms large.
In 1978, when Deng Xiaoping took over as China’s supreme leader, he inherited a poor and struggling China, ravaged from the disastrous Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution.
Deng’s initial and primary focus was on economic reform, establishing a market economy that focused on technology, innovation and meritocracy, and a system that sought foreign direct investment and interaction primarily with U.S. companies and universities. And the U.S. delivered, with U.S. companies investing heavily in China and tens of thousands of Chinese students enrolling in U.S. colleges and universities.
Fast forward to September 2000, when the U.S. Senate voted in favor of Permanent Most Favored Nation status for China, which paved the way for China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in December 2001.
From a poor and struggling China, to a China with the world’s second largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over 17.7 trillion USD. Total U.S. goods and services trade with China in 2022 was estimated at $758.4 billion, an increase from 2021.
It’s not just for the President anymore. Cipher Brief Subscriber+Members have access to their own Open Source Daily Brief, keeping you up to date on global events impacting national security. It pays to be a Subscriber+Member.
Indeed, the U.S. was there and continues to be there for China when it comes to trade and economic relations, in addition to unfettered access to U.S. universities and colleges. Although the issue of intellectual property theft by China continues to be an issue, as do certain sectors of China’s economy that continues to remain closed to foreign investment. Regardless of some of these market access and intellectual property theft issues, our economies are interdependent which makes a strong case for arguing against economic decoupling.
It’s the Trust Deficit issue that has to be addressed, dealing with China’s activities in the South China and East China seas; their attempted intimidation of Taiwan with naval and air incursions into Taiwan’s protected air and sea defense zones; the 1997 Reversion of Hong Kong back to China from the United Kingdom and enactment of the Basic Law that promulgated a One Country two System status for Hong Kong until 2047, and Xi Jinping’s enactment of the National Security Law for Hong Kong in 2020, that basically nullified the Basic Law commitments and a One Country Two Systems policy for Hong Kong; and the human rights situation in Tibet and Xinjiang and the treatment of the Uighurs.
These are some of the most volatile issues that require immediate attention, as is the need for a dialogue on our respective nuclear programs and China’s alignment with a revanchist Russian Federation and Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism, while making clear that U.S. policy is not to contain, encircle and suppress China.
Not addressing issues in the South and East China Seas could result in accidental conflict and war, which is why it’s important to keep the Indo-Pacific free and open to international trade and passage. Many experts were concerned as we witnessed U.S. and Chinese naval vessels and aircraft almost colliding. And in 2001, when a Chinese jet fighter airplane collided into a U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance airplane in international airspace, with an emergency landing of the airplane in Hainan Island and the crew being held for 10 days.
The Chinese pilot was missing and presumed dead. Initially, President George W. Bush was unable to contact his counterpart in China, President Jiang Zemin, who wasn’t answering the phone, which may have allowed the presidents to defuse this incident in a timely manner.
A similar incident on May 7, 1999, occurred, when the U.S. accidentally bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, with three Chinese officials killed. President Bill Clinton was unable to reach President Jiang Zemin – who refused to take his call until May 14, when Clinton finally spoke with Jiang and apologized for the accidental bombing.
This lack of timely communications by our leaders could prove catastrophic today, given the lack of trust between our countries.
Get in on an up close conversation on the cyber issues looming between the U.S. and China at the Cyber Initiatives Group’s virtual Winter Summit, Wednesday, December 6 from 12p – 3p ET.
Save my seat.
It should be obvious why leader-to-leader and military-to-military timely communications are important –to prevent and/or mitigate an accident or misunderstanding from escalating into conflict. This is important not only in the South and East China seas but in the Taiwan Strait, with China’s aggressive naval and air incursions into Taiwan’s air and sea defense zones. And with Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2024, it’s important that the U.S. continues to make clear, as President Joe Biden did in his discussions with President Xi Jinping, that China should not interfere in the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan.
Hopefully, given the Biden-Xi discussions in November, we will see progress not only on improving leadership communications but in heightened diplomacy to deal with some of these issues and, most important, to build trust between our two countries.
Deng Xiaoping correctly looked to the U.S. to help with China’s modernization, and the U.S. was there for China. It would be tragic if this important legacy is forgotten, and we don’t work harder at restoring trust between the U.S. and China.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joe Detrani was first published in The Washington Times
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
