Several Cipher Brief experts attended this year’s Munich Security Conference, which concluded last weekend. The annual event is an opportunity for Atlantic allies to share their views on national security related issues.
We wanted a sense of the conversations happening off the stage this year, in the hallways and beer halls around Munich, so we reached out to New York Times Washington Correspondent David Sanger for his thoughts. Sanger is also the author of The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age.
The Cipher Brief: What was the main line of conversation in the hallways, not on stage, this year?
Sanger: What was striking this year was the marked difference in view between the American delegation — led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper — and the Europeans. The security conference theme was "Westlessness,'' a sense that the concept of "the West" had been eroded, especially in the absence of American leadership, with an echo of the "restlessness" we hear everywhere as the United States is distracted by an election, Germany is in chaos, and Brexit is playing out. Then came Mr. Pompeo, challenging the concept, arguing that "the West is winning,'' and offering what he called a series of "facts" to prove the United States was not in retreat. (The most compelling was $1 billion for an energy initiative to provide an alternative to Nord Stream II; the least compelling was the argument for abandoning the Paris accord and the Iran nuclear agreement.) So, it was the real clash of world views.
The Cipher Brief: What differences did you detect this year over last year? In other words, what issues have moved to the forefront?
Sanger: China was the big new topic. Remember, this is an annual meeting of the Atlantic allies. China always played in the background. Suddenly, it was front and center, with Secretary Esper arguing for a policy of economic and military containment. Clearly, with the Europeans seeking ways to allow Huawei to build at least elements of their 5G networks — and avoid angering a critical trading partner — there was hardly any agreement on this topic. But the European participants didn't directly take Mr. Esper on, at least in my presence. They are simply trying to split the difference, hoping to keep the Chinese happy and the Americans at bay, or the other way around.
The Cipher Brief: Can you tell us a little bit about the atmosphere? How difficult was it for journalists to get access to newsmakers?
Sanger: Journalists are restricted in where they can go in the Munich conference; to roam the halls you need a full participant badge. But the fact is that most of the newsmakers who come find a way to talk, either in small roundtables or in individual interviews. More gets done outside the hall than inside. That's true for the diplomats, but it's also true for the journalists. You learn as much or more drinking (very good) beer in the nearby restaurants with sources than you do in the set speeches. But that is true every year.
The Cipher Brief: Is there anything from this year’s conference that surprised you?
Sanger: There was a sense of wait-and-see about the United States. No one wanted to propose new initiatives until they see how the November election turns out. Yes, there was the usual complaining about President Trump. But there was also a dawning recognition that he may well be around for the next four-and-a-half years, and if so, Europe needs a different strategy. And, for the first time, I heard a lot of worry about post-Merkel Germany. It used to be that Germany held the European side of the alliance together. Not the case this year.
One other surprise: Little discussion of Brexit. It has gone from dreaded-future-event to reality, and so people were just talking about how to adjust.
David Sanger is the author of The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age
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