Cipher Brief Expert Marc Polymeropoulos served 26 years in the CIA before retiring from the Senior Intelligence Service in June 2019. His positions included field and headquarters operational assignments covering the Middle East, Europe, Eurasia and Counterterrorism
The Cipher Brief:What was your initial reaction to news that Israel and the UAE were normalizing relations?
Polymeropoulos: I have a different view of this. The foreign policy class has all responded in near unanimous fawning over the deal. And look, any kind of Israeli peace deal with an Arab state is good. That's something that we should all welcome. But there are a couple of things that went through my mind that go back to my job as a CIA case officer, because a lot of us who served in the Levant spent a lot of time on peace process issues, and we also spent time directly with the Israelis and with the Palestinians. I've been to Ramallah. I've been to the Palestinian Intelligence headquarters. Most importantly, the thing about being a CIA case officer is that you know the street.
I've seen that Israel is a marvel. Tel Aviv looks like a California beach town. There's a high-tech industry. But the dark side of it is how the Israelis treat the Palestinians. You see this whether it's in Jerusalem or in the West Bank. I think I've been to every city in the West Bank and I've been to Gaza as well. Keeping that in mind, my first reaction to the peace deal was what about the Palestinians? How, once again, have they been abandoned by their Sunni Arab brothers? They really are getting nothing out of this. And my view is based on seeing things up close and personal.
From an ethical view, I really believe that for Israel to be a viable state in the coming decades and centuries ahead, they have to get rid of this moral stain. The deal to normalize relations is an agreement amongst two parties that were actually not at war, but the peace agreement doesn't address the plight of the Palestinians.
The Cipher Brief: Understanding that it falls short on any benefits for the Palestinians, is it still a step in the right direction? Is it a positive step in what has always been a long journey in the Middle East?
Polymeropoulos: Of course, it's a step in the right direction. And one can always say, just understanding foreign policy and international relations, that increased contact and travel and trade is always good between parties that for a long time, didn't get along. But let's be clear in understanding that the Israelis the Emiratis were never enemies and there was a lot of contact already. The worst kept secret in the Middle East was that something like this may happen. Credit is due to the Emirati diplomats on this. It is definitely a good thing for the region. It's a good thing for U.S. interests. But again, in terms of the ethics, the Palestinians are still second-class citizens. A really good friend of mine and I were crossing into the West Bank one day back in 2015 and he said, "Look, the Palestinians live like trapped animals in an Israeli zoo." And it's really guttural, but that is exactly the way it is. No CIA officer who has had this unique view of contact with both sides, with the ability to travel throughout the West Bank and throughout Israel as well, and not had that reaction, or let’s say it’s rare. Again, the agreement's a good thing, but it doesn't address the fundamental lack of an improvement of the Palestinian situation.
The Cipher Brief: What would you expect as a form of protest from the Palestinians over the coming months?
Polymeropoulos: A couple of things. One is that the Palestinians are already in the dumps as it is. I mean, they're dealing with a very hostile right-wing Israeli government and an American administration that has supported Israeli rights completely, so the idea of a two-state solution is already teetering. But diplomatic moves are already happening. Obviously, there have been some protests by the Palestinian Authority. But ultimately, the question is, what does the Palestinian negotiating team do next? Because there is no leverage anymore. There's no leverage with Israel whatsoever. Under the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, there was an agreement amongst the Arab States that they would move to normalization relations with the Israelis in return for Israeli withdrawal and the formation of Palestinian states.
So now the Palestinians have absolutely no leverage. Will Saeb Erekat and Hanan Ashrawi and of course Mahmoud Abbas, going to try to salvage something from this? I don't know. Another interesting point would be to imagine what happens after the U.S. elections. Clearly, a Biden administration is likely to push a harder for a solution to the Palestinian problem. And then what happens with the Israeli elections and with Benjamin Netanyahu's position? One of the most complicated parts of this is that there are so many moving parts.
The Cipher Brief: Any final thoughts to add?
Polymeropoulos: I almost wish I was on the ground because in the past, one of the most fascinating things for me - starting really in the late '90s and then moving all the way to the last time I was there in 2015, 2016 - was the very candid views of the Israeli security establishment, knowing that the Palestinian issue does have to be resolved. I remember sitting with my counterpart from Mossad and I found them to be very much in the peace camp because I think they understood that Israel does not want to be an apartheid state in perpetuity. And the question is, will there be any emphasis on the part of the Israeli security services to push their political patrons to now move forward and try to deal with the Palestinian issue? Because again, there's no leverage anymore amongst an Arab block.
I would be interested to see if this is an issue internally in Israel. And you’ve seen this a little bit in the press over the last several days, there have been some questions about how Israel can deal with this problem. Demographically it's not sustainable and it's not sustainable for the ethical and moral fabric of Israel into the future. And the foundation of the Jewish state is of course, to right so many historic wrongs. But you can't keep subjugating a people. That was my view from being on the ground as a CIA case officer. And I think, again, we have a really unique perspective. But I also found that the Israeli security services understood this as well, so it'll be interesting to see their reaction in the days and weeks ahead.
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