It’s been a week of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, beginning on Monday with reporting by The New York Times that senior U.S. leaders were reviewing plans to send as many as 120,000 U.S. troops to the region, in the event that Iran launches attacks against U.S. interests, or reinstates work on its nuclear program.
Leaders from both Iran and the U.S. have publicly said they do not want war, and are seeking diplomatic solutions. Where is this headed?
The Cipher Brief spoke with former CIA Acting Director John McLaughlin for his perspective on the U.S. – Iranian crisis in this Cipher Brief Expert Quick Take.
The Cipher Brief: We’ve seen a number of what appear to be escalatory events between the U.S. and Iran this week. The U.S. is increasing its military presence by deploying more assets to the region. Certainly by all accounts, the situation is escalating. How is Iran most likely to respond?
McLaughlin: Iran will be very careful not to provoke us. They will fear that any overt attacks that can be traced to them will be a cause of escalation by the United States, so I think they're going to be very, very careful here.
The one threat they've made that I think we should take seriously is their statement that if they do not get some help from the other signatories of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, mainly the Europeans, that they will consider lifting some of the constraints on their nuclear program, particularly in the area of enrichment of uranium and the stockpiling of uranium.
And by help from Europe, they mean not heeding U.S. sanctions. The U.S. has withdrawn the waivers given to some European countries to purchase Iranian oil. If the Europeans heed the U.S. sanctions and end their purchase of oil from Iran, I believe that could cause the Iranians to back away from some of the provisions of the nuclear agreement, which, until now, they have remained in compliance with.
Even there, I think they'll be very careful. We don't know yet whether that's a bluff. This is a game of chicken. So I don't think we know yet how serious they are about that. But the broad point I'd make is I'd be very surprised if they overtly challenge us in some way that would put the U.S. under pressure to respond militarily. I don't think they want that.
The Cipher Brief: As a former Acting Director of the CIA, how are you looking at the activities and messaging this week – on a number of different individual issues – that are adding to the overall rising tensions?
McLaughlin: There are many puzzles in the Administration's posture. On one hand, there are contradictory statements coming out of the Administration. The President says on the one hand that we're not preparing to deploy large numbers of troops there, but if we were, he would send even more than 120,000.
That stands in stark opposition to what he has repeatedly said about military engagement in the Middle East, where he is pulling back from Syria, where ironically, Iran has most clearly and importantly enhanced its influence. Iran has a major military establishment in Syria and major weaponry. They have taken something like 2000 casualties in the course of fighting there. They have created facts on the ground that are not going to be easily reversed. And yet, President Trump wants to pull out of there, a place where the Iranians have really made their stand.
At the same time, the Administration is talking about some sort of military action to punish Iran somewhere else. It doesn't make a lot of sense. You don't see the outlines of a strategy in all of that.
In other words, what's hard to discern, is a kind of endpoint towards which the Administration is working. It may be regime change, but the U.S. record on that is not sterling when you consider what’s happened in Iraq and Libya, and so far, our somewhat faltering efforts in Venezuela. Just generally, regime change is a hard thing to provoke from a distance. It can come about also as a result of an internal uprising and we keep hearing that there is a lot of discontent in Iran and it shows up periodically, as it has a number of times over the last couple of decades, most recently in 2009.
But few countries are better than Iran from a security standpoint, of detecting that potential uprising in advance, nipping it in the bud, and putting it down. I remember from my time observing this inside of government, that it seemed despite the good intentions of reformers and protesters, they could never quite unite behind a leadership that they all supported in a way that gave the movement a kind of durability and momentum that you need to really change things.
So put all of that together and you do not have a very coherent strategic picture.
Also in The Cipher Brief: Iran's Coming Response: Increased Terrorism and Cyber Attacks by Cipher Brief expert and former Director of the NSA, Keith Alexander and Founder of the National Security Institute at George Mason University, Jamil Jaffer.
