The plan to sign a peace agreement early next year to end the more than 50-year civil war in Colombia appears to be in jeopardy. Earlier this week, a senior Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) negotiator, Jesus Santrick, said the negotiations between the government and the FARC will not produce a peace accord by the March 23 deadline, blaming the government for its delay.
This news does not come as a surprise. Frank Mora, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs, told The Cipher Brief last month that, while he was confident the conflict would end relatively soon, it would probably happen beyond the deadline.
The FARC’s persistent dissatisfaction with the deadline begs the question why the government would even set a negotiating deadline. On the one hand, creating a deadline has helped push the negotiations forward and pressures both sides to compromise in order to reach a deal by the announced date. There is also the political aspect—Santos is in his final term as President, and therefore running out of time to create the deal that he promised to voters and establish his legacy as the president who ended the longest civil war in Latin America. In fact, Santos has already announced that Colombia is in the “post-conflict” period because of the reduction in the number of FARC members and FARC-controlled areas.
On the other hand, there are equally high stakes of creating a deadline that cannot be met. It may be seen as a failure, even if the negotiations are still set to continue. This could cause a break in the negotiating process, weaken the government’s bargaining power, and unsettle Colombians, who are ready for conflict to end.
Failing to reach the deadline may even return the country to unmitigated war. The FARC has been operating under a unilateral ceasefire, though Colombian Defense Minister Luis Carlos Villegas has said that the FARC is still assaulting civilians, and the Colombian military has continued its counterinsurgency. That being said, a halt to the negotiations would be devastating for the FARC, who would be facing a stronger and more menacing Armed Forces. The FARC is at one of its weakest points in recent years following the deaths of several top commanders.
Colombians would also be disappointed. A recent Gallup poll indicated that 60 percent of Colombians believe the peace talks are the best option for resolving the conflict, an increase from its poll in June, when only 45 percent agreed. This change, however, may symbolize hope more than belief. Colombians are tired of conflict and are ready to open Colombia to foreign investment and business, which Jean-Paul Faguet, Professor at the London School of Economics, told The Cipher Brief is likely to transpire in a post-conflict Colombia.
Ending the conflict with the FARC, however, may be a misleading mark for peace. Although reaching an agreement would be an unprecedented accomplishment, a post-accord Colombia may not necessarily mean the end of conflict. Colombia will still have to grapple with the threats posed by other insurgents, paramilitary groups, and the organized criminal operations that are likely to persist beyond an accord. If the government can pull off successful negotiations by the deadline, Colombia will undoubtedly be entering a positive, new era, but it is only the next step in what has been a long process for securing peace.
Alana Garellek is an International Producer at The Cipher Brief.
