COLUMN/THE BLUF: A momentous event is happening that is receiving little fanfare in the U.S. but could have major long-term implications for regional stability, save lives, and change geopolitics and trade in the south Caucasus area.
The peace deal signed at the White House between Armenia and Azerbaijan last August could reverse a trajectory of bloodshed and hatred between those two countries and replace those cornerstones of their relationship with peace, prosperity and stability.
It could start a new trade route to Europe that bypasses Russia. This would leave Moscow, which has manipulated politics in that part of the world for centuries, out in the cold. There is still a long way to go but the dynamics are positive, and the time is right to make this happen.
Iran knows that and last night, Azeri authorities say that Tehran attacked the Caucasus with drones – an allegation that Tehran denies. According to the Azeris, the attack Included the Azerbaijani region of Nakhchivan, an area that is cut off from Azerbaijan, bordered by Armenia and Iran - and a region that is a key part of the Trump peace proposal for Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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The modern wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan center around Nagorno Karabakh, an enclave in Azerbaijan that has been inhabited largely by ethnic Armenians for centuries. The wars have claimed the lives of over 30,000 people, most of whom were civilians. An estimated 400,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan and 600,000 Azerbaijanis from Armenia and Karabakh were displaced as a result of these modern wars which started in 1988 as the Soviet Union was breaking apart and centuries old hatreds came out, inflamed by Russia.
I was an analyst at CIA in 1988 and spent my days writing about and briefing policy makers about the Armenian and Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. I spent a lot of time trying to explain why the two sides were fighting over this mountainous area that has no oil or minerals of much worth. It was hard to explain to practical U.S. policy makers how the Russians set up this conflict as a way to keep control over their Muslim and Christian neighbors.
The current peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is something I never expected. If it lasts, it will allow these two countries to focus on their economic growth and stability instead of wasting blood and treasure on centuries old hatreds instigated by their neighbor.
The conflict over Nagorno Karabakh goes back 1000s of years. The land was inhabited by Armenians probably since the 1st millennium BC as part of the Kingdom of Greater Armenia.
In 1724, Peter the Great encouraged the Armenians who were aligned with Russia, to take over territory all the way to the Caspian Sea which had been part of the Safavid State, evidence of Russian encouragement of bad relations between these neighbors even then.
The Russian generals were encouraged to displace the Azerbaijani population in any way they could. Under the terms of the Turkmenchay Treaty, 40,000 Armenians were resettled in Azerbaijan. By 1829 in the Peace Agreement of Edirne, 90,000 Armenians who had been living in the Ottoman Empire were also resettled in Azerbaijan by Russia, largely in Nakhchivan, Yerevan, and Karabakh. This was Russia’s way of converting and subduing the Muslim population in the area.
Even then, Russia played with ambiguity, largely siding with Armenia but holding out hope to Azerbaijan that its population would retake territory loss to ethnic Armenians. Armenia maintained Karabakh which was rich in Armenian cultural history, churches, and monuments until 1921 when the Soviet Union assigned the region to Soviet Azerbaijan as an autonomous oblast. The Soviets kept the two republics from widespread bloodshed over the territory, officiating territorial disputes and occasional dustups.
The first modern Karabakh war started in 1988. The war did not happen overnight. We saw it happening piece by piece. An attack at this intersection, transportation routes between Baku and Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, blown up and then bus depots where fuel was stored, blown up. None of it made headlines but as the analyst on this issue, it kept me busy.
By 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan were in open conflict. Because of the Soviet oversight of the predominantly Armenian region, the oblast had a degree of self-governance. With the Soviet Empire fractured, the Armenian population feared marginalization under Azeri rule and sought unification with the Republic of Armenia.
When Azerbaijan declared its independence from the Soviet Union and decided to take away some of the enclave’s autonomy, the mostly ethnic Armenian population voted to secede from Azerbaijan.
Full-scale fighting over the succession erupted in the late winter of 1992. International mediation by several groups failed to bring resolution and in the spring of 1993, Armenian forces captured Azerbaijani territory located outside the enclave. By 1994, the Armenians were in full control of most of the enclave and held approximately 9% of Azerbaijan's territory outside the enclave.
Some 600,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis had been displaced. A Russian-brokered ceasefire was signed in May 1994. Karabakh would be administered by Azerbaijan but controlled by Armenian forces and called itself the Republic of Artsakh. The Russians were the peacekeepers.
This uneasy peace lasted about 6 years.
In 2020, the next “Karabakh War” war began. This was a 44-day conflict which dramatically altered the regional balance of power. Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, launched a successful offensive, reclaiming significant territory. Russia did not support Armenia militarily, but the conflict concluded with another Russian-brokered ceasefire and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to monitor the demarcation line.
By 2023, Azerbaijan intensified its control over Karabakh and launched another offensive. This led to the Russian peacekeepers leaving the region, the closing of the Russian-Turkish monitoring station in Agdam, the migration of some 100,000 ethnic Armenians, and the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh.
The situation remained tense with intermittent armed attacks, roadside ambushes, border skirmishes, and more deaths. Under that canopy, the second Trump administration began its own negotiations with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
By March 13, 2025, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced that both parties had agreed on all terms of a peace agreement framework which included Armenia giving up claims on Nagorno Karabakh. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterized the announcement as “historic,” while European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas described it as “a decisive step.” I agree on both counts.
On August 8, 2025, a summit took place in Washington, D.C., where President Trump hosted Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House and announced a peace agreement signed by the leaders but still to be ratified by the parliaments of Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are 17 articles in the agreement. One of the high-profile parts of the agreement is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). This new route is expected to connect mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenian territory. This changes trade routes for the Caucasus and Central Asia. The completion of the route would allow the passage of people and goods across Azerbaijan and the broader Central Asia to Europe without needing to travel through Russia or Iran.
Iran and Russia have condemned the role of the United States in the proposed TRIPP project as an encroachment. Another important factor for regional politics is that Russia was not involved with this peace treaty, and Russian peacekeepers are no longer on the Armenian or Azerbaijani territories.
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Following up on the historic White House summit, Vice President J.D.Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan in February. While there he said, “Peace is not made by cautious people. Peace is not made by people who are too focused on the past. Peace is made by people who are focused on the future.”
Vance’s trip to Armenia and Azerbaijan and the deals he brought with him show that the administration is taking this peace seriously. In Baku, Vance signed a strategic partnership charter covering economy and trade, energy, connectivity, artificial intelligence, digital development, security, and defense.
In Armenia, the U.S. pledged support on nuclear energy, computer chips and drones. The U.S. is also holding Azerbaijan to account, emphasizing support for democratic institutions and the rule of law in their security agreement with Baku.
What’s Next
I have studied this part of the world for over thirty years. My children, who were born while I was writing intelligence pieces on the ongoing war in Nagorno Karabakh now have children.
My hope and wish is that my grandchildren will only read about the bloody history of the region and that they will be able to experience a new chapter in cooperation that brings prosperity as a major trade route from Central Asia and the Caucasus to Europe. I tend to be an optimist, but the time is right for this type of agreement if all parties stay focused on the end game. We cannot let these historic events get drawn into the fight with Iran.
The U.S. has an agreement for development rights for the corridor which would allow Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states to bypass Russia and Iran for trade routes. The U.S. must be a good steward of those rights and ensure that all neighboring countries are acting in good faith.
Right now, Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and its own crumbling economy. The world must keep an eye on any attempts by Russia to once again encourage enmity between these two states and stop any such efforts immediately. Iran too, on the border of these two countries, is clearly trying to draw in anyone it can to divert from the U.S. - Israeli strikes and must not be allowed to divert progress in the Caucasus. Turkey is a winner in this exchange, as the major western hub for trade and Ankara needs to play a positive role, including with Armenia.
The agreement represents a significant shift in Armenian foreign policy, moving away from traditional reliance on Russia toward closer ties with Western institutions, the United States, and even Turkey. Armenians need to be rewarded for their courage. Azerbaijan, already winning after the attacks against Karabakh in 2024, remains in a strong position but must be encouraged to focus on democracy.
A southern trade route that brings oil, gas, and agricultural goods to Europe through the Caucasus and Turkey is a win for this part of the world and will change the dynamics between the Caucasus and Central Asia and Russia. This is a once in a generation opportunity that the U.S. and Europe should continue to champion.
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