The Cipher Brief’s Trend Line Report April 2020 is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer.
Global
A novel coronavirus strand traced back to Wuhan province, China began rapidly spreading around the globe. The spread of the virus caught much of the world off guard and has substantially impacted global financial markets. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health emergency in late January and declared it a pandemic in mid-March. The death toll from the virus surpassed that of the SARS virus in the first quarter. The outbreak has also raised significant questions around national security issues, privacy issues and business continuity issues. The private sector stepped in offering mobile phone location data to track and try to prevent the pandemic’s spread. Russia and China launched massive disinformation campaigns about the virus.
- January 23: The World Health Organization declined to declare the new coronavirus outbreak as a global health emergency. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency,” said the WHO director-general, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. The Hill Scientific American
- January 29: In response to the outbreak, several airlines suspended or cancelled flights to China including American Airlines, British Airways, Indonesian Lion Air, and Lufthansa. DW France 24 The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post
- January 30: The World Health Organization declared the spread of the coronavirus as a global health emergency. The virus has infected over 8,200 people and killed more than 200. Eighteen countries have confirmed cases. BBC CNBC The New York Times
- February 9: The death toll from coronavirus rose to 811, making it more deadly than the 2003 SARS virus. The total number of those confirmed infected with the virus rose to 37,198. The New York Times
- February 17: Apple reduced its revenue projections for the first quarter due to the coronavirus’s impact on production. The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- February 19: Adidas sees an 85% drop in business in China due to COVID-19. Adidas joins other American companies such as Apple and Starbucks who saw sales drop due to COVID-19. Financial Times Quartz
- February 25: The World Health Organization said the coronavirus is not a pandemic yet, but there is a possibility for it to become one if more measures are not taken to limit the spread of the virus. BBC NBC News
- February 25: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said China’s censorship of information put the world at risk. HHS Secretary Alex Azar also said that China had not been forthcoming with information about the virus. ABC News The Hill
- March 2: OPEC officials and Russia plan to meet to discuss oil cuts. Panic from the coronavirus led to a 14 percent drop in oil prices. Al Jazeera The New York Times
- March 11: The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. There are more than 118,000 confirmed cases in 114 countries with 4,291 deaths. CNN France24 The Wall Street Journal
- March 18: The UN International Labor Organization (ILO) announced that over 24 million people could lose their jobs due to the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. DW
- March 23: Multiple nations begin utilizing citizens’ private information to collect data on potentially infected persons. Countries including South Korea, Italy, and Israel have begun using cellular location data to track people who have come in contact with infected persons. The New York Times The Washington Post
- March 23: The World Health Organization (WHO) announced the acceleration of the coronavirus pandemic with over 300,000 confirmed cases worldwide. BBC CNBC
- March 25: United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres issued a $2 billion appeal to help states that are vulnerable and war-torn in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and South America to help manage the virus. Associated Press Global News VOA News
- March 28: China and Russia engage in disinformation campaigns to provoke doubts about the United States’ handling of the virus pandemic and deflect from internal failures. The New York Times
The Americas
President Nicholas Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaido continued their stand-off in Venezuela. The United States remained steadfast in support of Guaido recognizing him as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. Late in the quarter, the United States charged Maduro with narco-terrorism and proposed an interim government without Maduro or Guaido serving in leadership until elections can be held. Elsewhere, cartel violence continued in Mexico as the United States saw an increase in narcotics trafficking along its southern border and encouraged further cooperation with the Mexican government to combat the problem.
Mike Vigil, Former Chief of International Operations, DEA
“The indictment of Nicolas Maduro and some of his closest allies was a positive thing and advances the principles of the rule of law. They have literally transformed Venezuela into a narco-state. In most countries it is the criminals who commit the crimes. In Venezuela, it is the state that engages in illegal activities.”
Mike J. Fisher, Former Chief, U.S. Border Patrol
“Given the current worldwide Covid-19 crisis and law enforcement personnel taking on additional duties outside of their typical patrol duties, it is not surprising to witness the criminal exploitation along the U.S. border. With increases in narcotics trafficking along the border, the U.S. military is again assisting law enforcement efforts to stem the flow of illicit contraband during this challenging time.”
TRENDING: Mexico: Trouble with Cartels Remains as Extradition Efforts Increase
- January 30: Three inmates suspected of working for drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman escaped a Mexico City prison with the assistance of three prison guards. The three inmates were to be extradited to the United States. BBC Reuters
- February 4: Four armed attackers killed nine people, including children as young as 12, in an attack on an arcade in Uruapan used by the Los Viagra gang to sell drugs. The gunmen are suspected members of the rival Jalisco New Generation cartel with the two groups having repeatedly attacked each other in the past. BBC Reuters
- February 25: Mexico has extradited at least 30 suspects to the United States this quarter after U.S. President Donald Trump pressured the Mexican government to step up its fight against organized crime. In 2019, a total of 58 suspects were extradited to the United States, according to Mexico’s attorney general office. The New York Times
TRENDING: Venezuela: Tension with the United States and Stand-Off Between Maduro and Guaido Continues
- January 3: Congress splits power between Juan Guaido and a rival after Nicholas Maduro’s allies block Guaido supporters from voting. Reuters Associated Press
- January 6: The Lima Group fully backed the re-election of Juan Guaido as head of the Venezualan Congress after the harassment of legislators who were blocked from entering a special session of the National Assembly to elect a substitute leader of congress, Luis Parra. Buenos Aires Times NBC News
- January 7: Juan Guaido was sworn in as head of the National Assembly despite pro-Maduro competition. Al Jazeera Bloomberg DW France 24
- January 13: The United States imposed sanctions on legislators “who, at the bidding of Maduro, attempted to block the democratic process in Venezuela,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated. Reuters
- January 20: Opposition leader Juan Guaido defied a travel ban and met with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Colombia. "The world must continue to support the Venezuelan people's effort to restore their democracy and put an end to Maduro's tyranny,” Pompeo said after the meeting. Al Jazeera BBC DW
- January 22: Venezuela’s intelligence service searched the offices of opposition leader Juan Guaido. "We have just confirmed that Sebin officers are inside the office of president Guaido," one legislator told reporters. Al Jazeera
- February 12: Juan Guaido was met by protestors on Tuesday after he arrived home from his world tour. Protestors, who support president Nicolas Maduro, confronted Guaido by grabbing and shoving him at the airport outside the capitol. BBC NPR
- February 16: President Nicolás Maduro ordered drills by Venezuela’s armed forces and civilian militias in response to pressure by opposition to remove him from power. The army deployed missile launchers, anti-aircraft batteries, and radars in the streets. There are no indications that the United States has plans for military intervention. Military.com TIME
- February 20: Military police raided a home in Caracas that belonged to Juan Guaido’s uncle, Juan Jose Marquez. Marquez was arrested by police on accusations of transporting explosives after he returned home with Guaido a week ago. Associated Press VOA News
- March 10: Juan Guaido led an anti-government protest on Tuesday in which security forces responded by firing tear gas. Associated Press The New York Times The Washington Times
- March 26: United States Attorney General William Barr announced the United States has charged President Nicolas Maduro and other senior officials with ‘narco-terrorism.’ BBC The New York Times The Washington Post
- April 1: If Nicholas Maduro agrees to step aside and allow an interim government to lead until elections can be held. The interim government would be led jointly by supporters of both Maduro and his main opponent Juan Guaidó, but not by either man directly. The Guardian The New York Times The Washington Post
- April 3: US announces expanded military presence in the Caribbean under the auspices of an increased focus on ‘counternarcotics operations’. Defense Secretary Mark Esper published a list of military assets that would be deployed to the region, which includes Navy destroyers, Coast Guard cutters, Navy littoral combat ships, helicopters, Navy P-8 patrol aircraft, along with Air Force E-3 AWACS and E-8 JSTARS which are equipped to carry out airborne surveillance, control, and communications. Miami Herald Miami Herald
Asia
The United States and the Taliban coordinated and agreed on conditions for a peace plan while reducing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. In China, the United States and China continue to place restrictions on each other’s media outlets and journalists. In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte terminated the US-Philippine Defense Pact after the United States refused renewal of a visa. In Taiwan, Chinese military drills increased in the region causing Taiwan and the United States to increase their own drills and patrols.
Cipher Brief Expert Analysis
CHINA
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea
U.S.-China relations are tense, especially now, with the tragedy of Covid-19. China apparently knew of the Corona virus in Wuhan in late November 2019 but waited until January 23, 2020 before locking down Wuhan. In late December, Dr. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at the Wuhan Central Hospital, warned his colleagues of a SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) type disease in Wuhan. For that, Dr. Li was arrested for making false statements. Dr. Li died in early February, from Covid-19.
On December 31, 2019, China informed the World Health Organization (WHO) of “Wuhan pneumonia cases of unknown origin” and on January 21, 2020 advised that there was human-to-human transmission. On January 30, 2020, the WHO declared a public health emergency. So, probably for political reasons, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) waited an extended period before declaring an emergency.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman, Li Jianzhao, had accused the U.S. of bringing Covid-19 to Wuhan and, using social media, claimed that the virus may have originated in the U.S. This type of disinformation, disseminated from a government official, no doubt had the support of the leadership. Russia and Iran have further disseminated these blatant lies. So, resolving some of these issues with China, while China still refuses to permit the CDC to visit to discuss Covid-19, are issues of immediate concern if we want improved bilateral relations.
Moving forward with the trade agreement with China, and implementing the first phase, with China purchasing $250 million in agricultural goods, is a positive first step. Further progress with the trade agreement and other related trade issues would be significant. Other issues, like the militarization of the islands in the South China Sea, intellectual property theft and treatment of the Uighurs will also require greater attention.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and other economic initiatives may have a geopolitical agenda which, currently, is of concern to many of the countries who have signed-on to these programs. Xi Jinping’s “Made in China 2025” and other pronouncements are a clear manifestation of his intent to make China a regional and global superpower, displacing the U.S.
NORTH KOREA
Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea
North Korea will continue to build nuclear weapons and sophisticated missiles, despite Kim Jung-Un's relatively friendly relationship with President Donald Trump and their two summits. In March 2020, North Korea launched nine short range ballistic missiles. We’ll see more launches but, hopefully, not another nuclear test, at least not until Pyongyang knows the result of the November election.
North Korea claims they have no COVID-19 cases, even though they share a 900-mile border with China. And given the poor public health system in North Korea, the COVID-19 pandemic could devastate the country, killing hundreds of thousands or more of its people. Kim Jung-un’s reluctance to admit any COVID-19 cases is similar to the behavior of his father, Kim Jung-il, who in the 1990s refused to admit and ask for food aid when millions of North Koreans died from starvation. The sense at that time, and possibly now with Covid-19, is that both Kims didn’t want the Korean people to know that their leaders couldn’t provide them with the food, and now, with the medical assistance necessary to protect the people. A pandemic like Covid-19, if unchecked in North Korea, could have political ramifications for the leadership.
North Korea will continue to look to China for economic and political support. Over 90% of the North’s trade is with China and over 90% of its crude oil and petroleum products come from China, thus China is the North’s life support system. To regain any momentum in negotiations with North Korea for denuclearization purposes will require the support and encouragement of China. And given the tense relationship the U.S. has with China, it’s questionable whether China will now use its influence in line with U.S. objectives.
TIMELINE
TRENDING: Afghanistan: Taliban and United States Agree to Peace Deal
- February 14: After almost two years of holding talks, the United States and the Taliban negotiate a proposal for a peace deal. DW
- February 17: The United States and Taliban officially agree to a reduction in violence agreement for one week with no set date. Associated Press
- February 21: United States and the Taliban announce that the one-week reduction in violence will begin February 22. NPR
- February 29: The United States and Taliban agree to a peace deal with the United States pledging to remove all troops from the country within 14 months if the Taliban holds its side of the agreement. BBC
- March 12: President Ashraf Ghani signed a decree for the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners according to terms of the peace deal and the remaining prisoners will be released on a bimonthly basis; however, the Taliban reject this decree saying that negotiations will be stalled until all prisoners are released. France 24
- March 16: The Afghan government delays prison release in order to review the list of 5,000 Taliban prisoners who were requested to be released. Al Jazeera
- March 24: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Afghanistan to help move forward peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Military Times
- March 24: The Taliban and Afghan officials held talks over a video conference to discuss details of the prisoner release, marking the first meeting between the two sides since the signing of the peace deal. Reuters
- March 30: The Taliban announced that it would not talk to the Afghan government’s negotiation on the basis that the team did not represent all parties involved in the peace deal process. The Guardian Reuters
- April 1: In preparation of the prisoner release, the Taliban sent a three-member team to Kabul to assist with identification and transport of the prisoners. Reuters
TRENDING: China: Tit for Tat with United States over Journalists and Media Outlets
- February 2: China revokes press credentials from three The Wall Street Journal journalists, after they criticized the Chinese government. BBC The New York Times South China Morning Post
- February 19: U.S. State Department classifies five Chinese media outlets foreign missions and require these media outlets to provide all information related to their employees working in the United States. ABC News Reuters
- March 2: The United States announces that it will reduce the number of Chinese journalists in the United States from 160 to 100. The Hindu
- March 3: Chinese foreign minister spokesman Zhao Lijian during a speech suggested that Beijing will retaliate against the restrictions placed on its U.S. media outlets. Spokesman Zhao said, “The Americans broke the rules of the game first, and we have to follow.” The South China Morning Post
- March 18: China revokes press credentials from 13 American journalists working for The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. BBC News
- March 28: Taiwan says expelled American journalists from China are welcomed to work in Taiwan. Asia Times
TRENDING: Philippines: Defense Pact with the United States Terminated
- January 23: President Duterte threatens U.S. military agreement if the United States does not renew the visa of Ronaldo dela Rosa within one month. NBC News Stars and Stripes
- February 12: President Duterte officially terminated the U.S.-Philippine military agreement. The Guardian NPR
- February 12: United States President Donald Trump announced that he does not mind the termination of the defense pact since the United States has already aided the Philippines in combating ISIS. Reuters
- February 27: President Duterte makes a speech emphasizing that the Filipino military is capable of combating terrorism without U.S. aid. Military Times
TRENDING: Taiwan: China, the United States, and Taiwan Posture with Military Movements
- February 10: Taiwan monitors Chinese fighter jets patrolling in the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait while Beijing claims the fighter jets are part of encirclement drills. South China Morning Post Taiwan News
- February 11: Taiwan intercepts Chinese fighter jets, which crossed the Taiwan Strait and views these drills to be a threat. Al Jazeera South China Morning Post
- March 18: Taiwan warns off Chinese jets, which almost entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone. The Japan Times
- March 18: USS McCampbell travels through Taiwan Strait while being monitored by Taiwanese military. Al Jazeera
- March 19: The U.S. Navy conducts live fire drills to test China’s military new advance systems. South China Morning Post
- March 26: Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman released a statement calling the USS McCampbell’s transit through the Taiwan Strait “very dangerous.” USNI News
- March 27: Taiwan stages large-scaled military drills following Chinese warplane activity near Taiwan. A U.S. warship also sailed through the Taiwan Strait while being monitored by Taiwan. South China Morning Post
Western Europe
Western Europe experienced its first case of COVID-19 in late January with Italy and Spain suffering the most from the outbreak with Spain passing China in the number of confirmed cases. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself contracted the virus in late March.
Militarily, the virus forced the reduction of U.S. EUCOM participation in the Europe-wide exercise, Defender Europe 2020 and France pulled its troops out of Iraq.
Cipher Brief Expert Take
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
COVID-19 has sent Europe into a state of shock. Its greatest impact, across the continent but especially in Italy, then Spain, and now through the U.K., has been on health, economy/living standards and ways of life. But security officials will be thinking about how the virus affects security priorities and our ability to handle them. On March 30 Britain’s MI5 appointed a new Director General, Ken McCallum: he arrives at an interesting time.
TIMELINE
- January 28: The German Health Ministry confirmed three new cases of the coronavirus in Bavaria bringing the total to four. DW The Guardian
- February 25: The French government announced its second death from COVID-19. Al Jazeera
- February 26: Italy confirmed 400 cases of coronavirus, the largest outbreak in Europe. BBC CNN
- February 27: Italy’s Lombardy regional Governor Attilio Fontana announced self-quarantine after a member of his staff had been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Al Jazeera
- February 27: The United Kingdom confirmed 13 new cases of coronavirus. This brings the total number of cases in the UK to 36. ABC News BBC
- March 2: Italy’s death toll from the coronavirus rose to 52 with 1,835 confirmed cases. The Guardian Sky News
- March 3: Italy has the second highest number of coronavirus deaths with 79. Al Jazeera
- March 4: Italy’s COVID-19 fatalities continue to rise to 107. Al Jazeera BBC
- March 5: The United Kingdom announced its first death and 116 confirmed cases. BBC
- March 9: Italy issues nationwide quarantine. The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- March 11: EUCOM decided to reduce U.S. participation in the Defender 2020 exercise in Europe due to the spread of coronavirus. Army Times
- March 13: Deaths in Italy rose 250 to a total of 1,266. France 24
- March 15: ISIS has advised its members to avoid Europe saying, “stay away from the land of the epidemic.” International Business Times Politico
- March 16: German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the shutdown of non-essential businesses and religious gatherings. DW
- March 17: Germany moved the COVID-19 threat risk from moderate to high. There are 9,200 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 24 fatalities. DW
- March 17: The European Union announced its decision to ban travelers outside of the block for 30 days. BBC
- March 18: In France, six coronavirus patients were transferred to a military facility in order to ease the strain on hospitals. France 24 Reuters
- March 18: The German town Mitterteich is the first in the country to order a curfew. DW
- March 18: The Italian government announced the biggest COVID-19 death toll rise in 24 hours with 475 fatalities. That same day 300 Chinese intensive care doctors arrived in the country to help with treating patients. BBC The Guardian The Wall Street Journal
- March 19: Italy passed China in total coronavirus deaths with 427 more fatalities bringing the total to 3,405. BBC NBC News The Wall Street Journal
- March 21: Volkswagen announced it would contribute to combating the coronavirus by using 3D printing for the production of hospital ventilators. DW Reuters
- March 22: The death toll in France increased by 112 bringing the total coronavirus fatalities to 674 with over 16,000 cases. France 24 Reuters
- March 23: German Chancellor Angela Merkel tested negative to COVID-19. Al Jazeera Reuters
- March 23: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown. Al Jazeera Independent
- March 24: The French government announced that the coronavirus death toll increased to 240 in 24 hours. The country has 22,300 confirmed coronavirus cases with 1,100 fatalities. France 24
- March 24: In Spain, the coronavirus death toll increased by 514 in a 24-hour window. There are approximately 40,000 cases and 2,696 fatalities. BBC
- March 25: Spanish officials announced COVID-19 fatalities have surpassed China. The country has 3,434 fatalities and 47,610 confirmed cases. Al Jazeera The Guardian
- March 25: The French government announced its suspension of anti-terrorism training operations in Iraq as troops are needed to help fight the coronavirus pandemic. The country has over 26,000 confirmed cases and more than 1,300 fatalities. Military Times
- March 26: U.S. Army Europe delivered medical supplies to northern Italy to assist with the pandemic. Army Times
- March 27: Europol has put out multiple warnings about con artists taking advantage of people by offering fake coronavirus medicine, tests, and masks. DW
- March 27: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson tested positive for coronavirus. BBC The New York Times
- March 30: German hospitals are facing shortages of masks, protective gowns, gloves, and other key materials. DW
- March 30: French health officials announced 418 new coronavirus fatalities, bringing the countries total to 3,024 with 44,550 total cases. France 24 Reuters
- March 30: The European People’s party (EPP) released a statement urging an extension for the Brexit transition period due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial Times The Guardian
- March 31: French President Emmanuel Macron announced the decision to increase production of masks and respirators to help the shortages among hospitals. France 24 Politico
- March 31: Spanish health authorities announced 849 more fatalities bringing the total to 8,189 and 94,417 confirmed cases, passing China in total cases. Al Jazeera
- March 31: UK officials announced a 27% increase of fatalities in 24 hours with 1,789 coronavirus deaths. Al Jazeera France 24
Central and Eastern Europe
This quarter, Russia continued to be a major actor in the region and abroad. Proposed constitutional changes reset President Vladimir Putin’s term at the end of his current tenure in 2024, allow him extend his presidency 12 more years.
Russia and Turkey continued to clash in Syria’s Idlib region. Russia also clashed with Belarus over oil sales, effectively cutting off oil for Belarus until an agreement could be reached.
In Turkey, the toll of the Syrian civil war came to a head when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opened the nation’s borders allowing displaced Syrian refugees into EU nations as tensions continued with Russia.
TRENDING: Belarus: Oil Standoff with Russia
- January 3: Russian oil shipments to Belarus were halted after Russia and Belarus could not agree on terms for oil deliveries in 2020. Al Jazeera Reuters
- February 1: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo offers on behalf of the United States to provide 100% of Belarus’s oil and gas needs. ABC News BBC Reuters
- February 7: Belarus signs an agreement to begin buying crude oil from Russian refineries at prices set on the global market on February 9. Reuters RFE/RL
- March 23: Russia oil companies agree to begin selling oil to Belarusian refineries at $15.7 per ton, a $12 discount as oil market prices continue to fall. Reuters
TRENDING: Russia: New Constitution Allows Putin to Retain Power
- January 16: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and cabinet resign as President Vladimir Putin proposes multiple constitutional changes that will allow him to extend his rule beyond his 2024 term limit. ABC News BBC CNN The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- January 17: President Putin names Mikhail Mishustin as new Prime minister. Al Jazeera CNN DW The New York Times The Wall Street Journal
- January 20: President Putin sends his proposed constitutional amendments to parliament. He claims the changes will give more power to parliament and strengthen democracy. Global News RFE/RL
- March 10: President Vladimir Putin endorsed a proposal that would reset term limits allowing him to extend his presidency 12 more years after 2024. It was passed by the lower house of parliament shortly after. BBC The Guardian The New York Times
- March 11: Parliament’s upper house approved an amendment which will reset President Putin’s terms allowing him to run for president two more times. Reuters RFE/RL
- March 12: Protestors were detained in multiple Russian cities during or before rallies which protested President Putin’s constitution amendments. RFE/RL
- March 16: The constitutional court ruled that the proposed amendment, which will allow President Putin to run for two more consecutive terms, was legal according to the Russian constitution. The New York Times Reuters RFE/RL
- March 25: President Putin postpones the April 22 vote on the proposed constitutional amendments due to the country’s coronavirus outbreak. CNBC Reuters RFE/RL
Nick Fishwick, Former Senior Member, British Foreign Office
We are seeing more and more strains on the EU. A crisis has followed the renewed surge of migrants across the Turkish border into the EU, and COVID-19 has made the situation still more desperate. The EU is resisting the move of the Polish government to control its judiciary through a politically appointed disciplinary chamber. Viktor Orban in Hungary has assumed unprecedented powers, supposedly in response to COVID-19, which are a direct challenge to the EU’s values. Britain is now out of the EU, but the virus means that the transition period will have to be extended. Chancellor Merkel’s long fade out in Germany- she will not retire until 2021 - with no acknowledged successor has weakened the voice of the EU’s leading economy. The EU is still struggling to agree a coherent economic and financial response to COVID-19. There are challenging times for the EU.
TRENDING: Turkey: Tension Continue with Russia over Syria, Conflict Continues to Cause Migrant Pressure
- January 13: Turkish and Syrian heads of intelligence met in Moscow to discuss working together to combat the YPG despite the longstanding hostility between the two countries. The New York Times Reuters
- January 15: Turkey and Russia met to discuss establishing a secure zone in the Idlib province to serve as a shelter for displaced Syrians during the winter. Haaretz
- January 22: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu criticized the EU for failing to uphold its portion of a refugee deal to provide aid for displaced Syrians in Turkey. DW
- February 7: Turkey’s military deploys more military vehicles into Idlib after Syrian forces seized control of Saraqeb. Al Jazeera Haaretz Reuters
- February 14: Russian and Turkish foreign ministers met to discuss tensions in Idlib after a Syrian offensive which resulted in Turkish casualties. Al Monitor The New York Times Reuters
- February 18: Turkey announced it will be sending more troops to the Idlib province and that it is ready to ensure Syrian forces pull out of the region. Reuters The New York Times
- February 24: Turkey and the UN began talks to increase aid and allow for more evacuations to displaced Syrians. Middle East Monitor Reuters
- February 28: Ankara announced that it will no longer stop Syrian refugees from reaching into Europe after over 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in a strike by Syrian forces in the northwest Idlib region. Al Jazeera BBC Haaretz
- March 3: U.S. officials announce that it will provide $100 million to the UN aid program to support displaced civilians in Syria. No military aid was promised at the time. Haaretz Middle East Eye Reuters The Wall Street Journal
- March 5: 1,000 police officers were deployed to the Greek border to prevent Greece from repelling refugees back into Turkey. Al Jazeera The Guardian
- March 8: President Erdogan ordered the Turkish coast guard to stop migrants from crossing into Greece from the Aegean Sea. Al Jazeera France 24
- March 12: Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that a ceasefire deal with Russia and Syria has been largely agreed upon. Al Jazeera Reuters U.S. News & World Report
- March 15: Turkish and Russian forces completed their first joint patrol on the M4 highway in Syria. The patrol was cut short by rebel and civilian protests. Al Jazeera Reuters RFE/RL
- March 17: President Ergodan met with French, German, and UK officials to discuss the Syrian conflict and the refugee crisis that came as a result. Al Jazeera DW The Guardian
Middle East and North Africa
The COVID-19 virus that ravaged Iran traced back to a merchant who made business trips to Wuhan, China. Iran is believed to have suffered the most of all the countries in the Middle East from the virus outbreak with a large number of government officials falling ill early on, to include some aides close to Ayatollah Khamenei. Another trending story: amid the virus outbreak, Israel employed its intelligence services to use mobile phone data to track and contain the outbreak.
TIMELINE
- February 19: Two people died in Iran from coronavirus, the first in the Middle East. DW Middle East Eye Reuters
- February 20: Iran confirmed three new cases of coronavirus. Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur stated, "Two people have tested positive for COVID-19 in Qom and one person in Arak, bringing the total of confirmed cases to five in Iran." Al Jazeera The New Arab
- February 23: Lebanon confirmed its first case of coronavirus after an individual returned from Iran and tested positive. Middle East Monitor U.S. News and World Report VOA News
- February 23: Iran announced 15 new cases of coronavirus bringing the total number of cases in Iran to 43 with the death toll at eight. Middle East Monitor Reuters
- February 24: Kuwait reported three cases of the virus, Oman confirmed two cases, and Bahrain and Iraq both reported one case. Each of these individuals has recently travelled to Iran. Al Jazeera The Jerusalem Post Reuters
- February 26: The virus continues its spread throughout the Middle East with 26 cases in Bahrain, 25 in Kuwait, and 13 in UAE. Middle East Eye
- February 26: Iran’s rial dropped to a one year low as coronavirus cases continue to rise. Reuters
- February 27: Iranian Vice President for Women and Family Affairs, Masoumeh Ebtekar, was diagnosed with coronavirus becoming one of seven officials to be diagnosed in Iran. Chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, Mojataba Zolnour, tested positive for the virus as well. Officials stated the number of cases increased to 245 with 26 deaths meaning that 106 new cases were confirmed in the last 24 hours. Middle East Monitor The New York Times
- March 2: Mohammad Mirmohammadi, an aide to Ayatollah Khamenei, died of coronavirus. This was the third official to die of coronavirus. Iran currently has 978 confirmed cases and 54 deaths. Business Insider Time
- March 3: Twenty-three of the 290-member Iranian parliament have tested positive for coronavirus causing parliament to be suspended indefinitely. Business Insider National Post
- March 11: Iran’s Senior Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, minister of cultural heritage, handicrafts and tourism Ali Asghar Mounesan, and minister of industry, mines, and business Reza Rahmani all have been diagnosed with coronavirus. 354 Iranians have died from the virus with around 9,000 confirmed cases spanning across all 31 provinces. Al Jazeera Middle East Eye
- March 11: Bahrain accused Iran of “biological aggression” by covering up the spread of the virus and failing to stamp the passports of Bahraini travellers. Al Jazeera Reuters
- March 12: Iran reported 75 new deaths from coronavirus bringing the total to 10,075 with 429 deaths. Jerusalem Post Reuters
- March 12: Iran asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for immediate assistance in dealing with the coronavirus. Middle East Monitor Reuters The Union Journal
- March 14: An Iranian senior aide to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati, tested positive for coronavirus. Middle East Monitor
- March 19: Israeli protesters staged outside the Knesset to protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coronavirus measures. The JC The New York Times
- March 19: Israeli intelligence, the Mossad, launched a covert operation to fly in up to 100,000 coronavirus testing kits from two unnamed countries. The Guardian The Jerusalem Post
- March 20: The Syrian government has banned entry from many states who have been affected by the coronavirus although the government says it has not documented any infections yet. Reuters
- March 22: The first two coronavirus cases were confirmed in Gaza after two men returned home from Pakistan via Egypt. There have been 59 confirmed cases in the West Bank and 945 in Israel. The Guardian
- March 23: President Hassan Rouhani announced that he expects 70 percent of Iran to contract the coronavirus. Middle East Monitor
- March 23: Ayatollah Khamenei refused assistance from the United States after the U.S. imposed more sanctions on the state. Al Jazeera
- March 23: Iran will receive 20 million euros from the European Union to help alleviate the effects from the coronavirus and support Tehran’s request for IMF financial help. Middle East Monitor Reuters
- March 23: Syria confirmed its first coronavirus. Al Jazeera Middle East Monitor
- March 23: Saudi Arabia announced it will issue a nationwide curfew and the UAE announced a suspension of all flights to Saudi Arabia for two weeks. Al Jazeera Times of Israel
- March 23: Two major generals in the Egyptian military died over two days. News 24 Reuters
- March 24: Iran rejected all offers of foreign help and aid workers to assist in response to the coronavirus. The Islamic Republic alleged that the Doctors Without Borders staff would serve as spies. Al Jazeera
- March 30: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was placed on precautionary quarantine after one of his advisors and her husband tested positive for COVID-19. Al Jazeera Times of Israel
- April 1: Lebanon’s Hezbollah-led government was accused of using COVID-19 to solidify more power. A Lebanese activist said, “The government activated criminal laws to arrest and charge people at a time that it did not stop flights from [coronavirus] epicenters like Iran and ignored taking necessary measures to protect the people.” Lebanon currently has 333 coronavirus cases with a growing number in Beirut. VOA News
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa has been the least affected region thus far. However, the region did not experience its first case until early March. Several countries have declared national emergencies and imposed lockdowns. U.S. AFRICOM cancelled the military exercise African Lion while the WHO said Africa should be doing more to prepare for an outbreak.
TIMELINE
- March 2: Senegal confirmed its first case of COVID-19 becoming the second sub-Saharan African state. Nigeria confirmed the first case when an Italian national returned to the country. ANN News 24
- March 4: Senegal’s Health Ministry announced two new cases of coronavirus, bringing the country’s total to four. ANN Reuters
- March 6: Cameroon confirmed its first two cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of reported cases in sub-Saharan Africa to nine. News 24 Reuters
- March 10: U.S. Army Africa’s military leaders have decided to reduce the multinational exercise African Lion over coronavirus. Military Times
- March 10: Morocco’s Health Ministry has confirmed the country’s first death, as the Democratic Republic of Congo confirmed its first case. ANN News 24
- March 12: Senegal announced five new cases of coronavirus, making it the worst affected country in the region, bringing the total number of cases to ten. News 24
- March 13: Sudan reported its first death from a case of coronavirus. Bus services to and from Egypt were stopped and authorities suspended all flights to eight countries affected by the virus. The New York Times VOA News
- March 15: Ethiopia's Health Minister Lia Tadesse confirmed the country's first case of coronavirus. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he had secured a continent-wide support from Chinese businessman Jack Ma. ANN VOA News
- March 16: The World Bank committed $60 million to help Kenya fight the coronavirus outbreak. The virus has spread to at least 30 countries on the continent. BBC Reuters
- March 16: U.S. AFRICOM canceled the multinational exercise African Lion, citing it was doing so to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Army Times
- March 16: South Africa declared a “national state of disaster” and President Cyril Ramaphosa effectively shut down all borders, schools, and large gatherings across the country. Reuters VOA News VOA News
- March 18: The Nigerian government announced a travel ban from several countries, including China, the United States, and the United Kingdom. The government also announced an additional five cases, bringing the total to eight cases in the country. CNN ANN
- March 18: Zimbabwe's president declared a state of national disaster despite no cases of coronavirus. News 24
- March 19: Burkina Faso announced its first death from coronavirus. ANN News 24
- March 19: The Head of the World Health Organization said that Africa must do more to prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus. BBC
- March 22: A cargo flight containing more than six million medical supplies from Chinese billionaire Jack Ma arrived in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa. VOA News
- March 23: South Africa imposed a three-week lockdown. Bloomberg
- March 24: The Nigerian president’s chief of staff, who is in his 70s, has tested positive for coronavirus. Reuters
- March 31: Botswana responded to his country’s first case of coronavirus by declaring an indefinite state of emergency. MSN VOA News
- March 31: The Ethopian electoral commission postponed the parliamentary and presidential elections previously scheduled for August. Al Jazeera France 24
- March 31: South African announced it will launch door-to-door coronavirus screening. At least 10,000 field workers will be conducting mass testing for the virus amid the current 21-day lockdown. There are more than 1,326 confirmed cases in South Africa. VOA News
The Cipher Brief’s OSINT Trend Line Report is brought to you in partnership with the University of Mississippi’s Center for Intelligence and Security Studies and our private sector partner, Primer AI
Read more national security insights, perspectives and analysis in The Cipher Brief
