SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – A drone strike that killed the deputy chief of Hamas’s political arm, Saleh Al-Arouri and five others in southern Beirut on Tuesday could increase the intensity of potential proxy attacks against the U.S. and Israel as the fourth anniversary of the U.S. strike that killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, approaches.
Cipher Brief Expert and former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Norm Roule told The Cipher Brief on Wednesday that “Arouri’s death will likely increase the intensity of these attacks. US military and diplomatic personnel will probably be on alert throughout the Middle East.”
QUICK BACKGROUND
- Hamas’s top commander in the West Bank, al-Arouri and five others were killed in Tuesday’s strike, according to Lebanon’s state news agency.
- Experts say Israel was targeting the man it called the ‘mastermind’ of the October 7 terrorist attacks in the drone strike on Tuesday.
- Iranian General Qassam Soleimani was killed in a U.S. drone strike on January 3, 2020.
- Israeli officials have not taken responsibility for the strike that killed al-Arouri, but an advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told MSNBC, “Whoever did it, it must be clear: this was not an attack on the Lebanese state”.
- Mosques in the West Bank are mourning Arouri’s death.
- Al-Arouri served as deputy chief of Hamas’s political bureau and was a founder of the Qassam Brigades – the group’s armed wing.
- Al-Arouri had been living in exile in Lebanon after spending 15 years in an Israeli jail.
- The United States designated al-Arouri as a global terrorist in 2015.
- Israel has said that it aims to destroy Hamas, to include the organization’s infrastructure and political leaders.
THE EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW
The Cipher Brief talked with Roule for an exclusive perspective on what the killing of Saleh al-Arouri means as the Israeli war in Gaza enters a third month.
The Cipher Brief: What can you tell us about Salah al-Arouri?
Roule: A native of the village of Arura in Ramallah, Salah Arouri had been a member of Hamas since 1987, and led a Hamas cell while at Hebron University in the early 1990s. He was a founding member of Hamas’s military force, the Izz al-Din Al-Qassam Brigades, played a significant role in Hamas’s finances, and served as number two in Hamas’s political wing. Arouri reportedly participated in the negotiations that led to the 2011 release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel (including Yahya Sinwar). Most recently, Arouri appeared in an infamous video with other Hamas leaders celebrating the October 7 Hamas massacre of Israeli civilians. It isn’t too much to say that he was probably the most dangerous Hamas official outside of Gaza. Since October 7, Israel has arrested more than 2,500 militants in the West Bank; about half of these were Hamas members under Arouri’s control.
The Cipher Brief: What about his history of militant activity?
Roule: Israeli security forces arrested him on several occasions, and he spent more than 15 years in Israeli prisons. He led Hamas’s operational units in Syria and Turkey and played an influential role in restoring the group’s relations with Iran following the rupture that took place over Syria. Since 2017, he has lived in the Dahiya neighborhood of south Beirut, where he managed Hamas’s operations in the West Bank and Lebanon and led a Hamas effort to unite Sunni-Shia militant cooperation against Israel. Washington tied Arouri to several terrorist operations. The U.S. Department of the Treasury designated him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in 2015. In 2018, the U.S. Department of State’s Rewards for Justice program offered a $5 million reward for information leading to his arrest.
The Cipher Brief: What does it say about Israel’s intentions and capabilities that this attack took place in Lebanon?
Roule: Israel has not admitted any role in Arouri’s killing. The Israeli Prime Minister’s spokesman has reportedly said “Whoever did this, it’s not an attack on Lebanon or Hezbollah.” The international community assumes Israel was behind the attack. Israel has repeatedly stated its commitment to eradicating the Hamas leaders who were behind the October 7 massacre as well as dismantling Hamas’s military architecture, no matter where it is. Since the war began, Israel has killed several dozen – if not more – Hamas commanders. Arouri was likely number three on Israel’s wanted list, behind only Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif.
The Cipher Brief: What about the location of the strike in Lebanon?
Roule: The location is important. It. happened in the neighborhood of Dahiya, one of Lebanese Hizballah’s most important strongholds in Beirut. Hezbollah devotes considerable attention to the security of this area. The idea that Israel could locate and kill Arouri in such a neighborhood, implies a powerful and dynamic intelligence capability within the heart of Hezbollah’s world. As Hezbollah’s leaders decide how to respond, they will likely wonder what this means for their operational and personal security. This consideration may delay the timing of any Hezbollah retaliation.
The Cipher Brief: What is the immediate impact of this killing?
Roule: I think there will be three immediate impacts. Let’s start with Hamas. First, hostage negotiations were never easy but will be on hold now. We should hope that Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad do not harm hostages in retaliation for Arouri’s death. Egypt and Qatar need to help out here.
Hamas will need to show a kinetic response, likely in the form of a rocket attack on Israel. We shouldn’t discount Hamas’s ability to attempt another terrorist action against Israel within Israel or abroad. Last, Hamas will need to identify a replacement for Arouri to maintain his operations – especially in the West Bank and in Lebanon - during a time when the Hamas organization is under unprecedented assault.
The Cipher Brief: What about the impact on Lebanese Hezbollah?
Roule: Arouri was under the protection of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Although Nasrallah has no strategic drivers to launch a major war with Israel, he must respond to an attack that took place on his doorstep. In a 2006 televised speech, Nasrallah promised that if Israel conducts any strikes on Beirut, “…resistance will hit Tel Aviv.” At the same time, Nasrallah must consider the political, economic, and even personal consequences of a Hezbollah military response. This will take hours, if not a few days. He may also want to coordinate with Iran on what happens next. Israel certainly took into consideration the likely Hezbollah attack response. Israel’s Defense Forces will be on high alert, especially against missile attacks.
Hezbollah has several options in terms of a response. Let me name three.
Nasrallah could respond with harsh rhetoric and increase the intensity of existing attacks. This would reduce the risk of an Israel-Hezbollah war and improve opportunities for diplomacy.
A second option would be to launch a massive attack of rockets and short-range missiles against Israeli military and civilian targets in north Israel. This would allow him to show defiance and punish Israel for the attack in Beirut.
A third option would involve long-range missiles against key civilian, military, and infrastructure sites. This option would most significantly raise the likelihood of an Israel-Hezbollah war.
Although it is easy to think that the response will be dramatic, we shouldn’t ignore the possibility of a more muted response. Nasrallah’s response to Israel’s ferocious retaliation against Hamas has been limited thus far. Looking back into regional history, neither the killing of Imad Mughniya in 2008, or the September 2007, Israeli strike on the Syrian nuclear reactor didn’t produce the conflict some feared.
In any case, the Lebanese issue will continue to risk boiling over. Hezbollah attacks and Israeli counterattacks have forced tens of thousands of Lebanese and Israelis from their homes on each side of the border.
The return of Israelis is a growing political problem for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Even before Arouri’s killing, we were approaching a point where Hezbollah either had to end its attacks on Israel and withdraw personnel from the Israeli border, or Israel would expand operations to push them back.
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