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Are Putin's 'Red Lines' Real Threats or Hollow Bluffs?

Ukraine continues to test the Kremlin's warnings. Western leaders must decide whether to follow Kyiv or hold back.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrives to review honour guards of the Presidential regiment following his inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin's Sobornaya Square in Moscow on May 7, 2024. (Photo by RAMIL SITDIKOV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

DEEP DIVE — Does Vladimir Putin have actual “red lines” for the West when it comes to the war in Ukraine? And if so, what will he do if they are crossed? These are crucial questions for Ukraine and its supporters, and a growing chorus of policymakers and analysts believe the West has been getting the answers wrong. 

Since the early days of the war, Putin has brandished the threat of using Russia’s nuclear weapons should the West “interfere” with his “special military operation” in Ukraine. Time and again, the West has either delayed shipment of weapons or imposed restrictions on their use because of  fears that doing otherwise would cross a Kremlin red line, and lead to a dangerous escalation.

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