EXPERT Q&A — Ukraine’s stunning invasion of Russia’s Kursk region has entered its third week. Ukraine has taken control of nearly 500 square miles of Russian territory, including the key border town of Sudzha, and destroyed three bridges that are key supply routes for the Russians. Kyiv says it has taken over 2,000 Russian prisoners, and an estimated 200,000 Russians have evacuated the area.
In the latest episode of The Cipher Brief’s new weekly show The World Deciphered, Chief International Correspondent Ia Meurmishvili spoke with Lieutenant General Ben Hodges (Ret.), former Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe, to discuss Ukraine’s push into Kursk and what it will mean for the war and European security.
This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Meurmishvili: How significant is this in your view?
Gen. Hodges: We don’t know and we’re not entitled to know exactly what the objective of this is. In fact, we’re all kind of struggling with what to call it. Is it a raid? Is it an incursion? Is it an offensive? But that’s OK. We’re not entitled to know what the Ukrainians are trying to accomplish. They’ve done a masterful job of concealing the buildup and I think that they will have done a lot of work to prepare for this without the Russians or us really knowing what they were doing.
But it is not too early to make some assessments about effects. Number one, clearly this has changed the narrative about the inevitability of Russia winning, that there’s no way that Ukraine can win, somehow. They have changed that narrative at least for now.
They’ve also debunked the idea that because Russia has drones, that it’s the end of land warfare, it’s the end of combined arms operations, and that it would be impossible to conceal the buildup of forces. Obviously, the Ukrainians have figured out how to do it, probably with an innovative approach to creating a counter-drone bubble.
The Russian response has been ragged and there’s been some panic. The fact that they have put the FSB (Russian security services) in charge instead of the military tells me that they don’t trust the generals. And this does feed the Kremlin narrative that Ukraine’s attack is a terrorist operation, and therefore they’re leaving it to the FSB to solve it, which I think will be a mess because the FSB is not organized to do that.
Meurmishvili: What happens next? Where does this go from here?
Gen. Hodges: Well, the interesting thing for me will be how long do they plan to stay there? And that goes to why did they do it? Is it just to draw off Russian forces from other places? Is it to create a political dilemma for Putin? Was it intended to preempt a Russian buildup for another attack on Sumy, for example? It has denied Russia the use of this area from which they had launched a lot of drone attacks in the past. And it also enables Ukraine to get closer to some Russian airfields where they could strike with their own weapons.
There are several advantages to what they have done. They’ve captured Russian troops and created some real turmoil inside Russia, which I think will have longer-term implications for the Kremlin. The best news for me is the absence of any US government calls for slowing down, restraint. Hopefully our government will continue to be quiet on this.
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Meurmishvili: You mentioned that it will have long-term implications for the Kremlin. What does this mean for Russia and for President Putin himself?
Gen. Hodges: There is a lot of work being done in the Kremlin to try and gain control of the narrative about what happened. And I think we’re going to see a lot of people dropping leaks, blaming who was responsible for the failure. Such an intelligence failure. How did this happen? So I think there will be a lot of blaming going on.
Meanwhile, Putin will have to assure the Russian people and, maybe more importantly, all of his oligarchs, that he has the situation under control. I don’t think that the Russian military is in a position to do anything more than what they’re already doing, which is launching attacks against and killing innocent Ukrainian civilians, attacking infrastructure.
The ability to move a lot of forces around to react to this, that’s very difficult. We’re talking about huge distances. The logistical network, the command and control, that’s been a problem all along. So how quickly they can react with quality effect, I think it’s going to be several more days before they are able to really start challenging the Ukrainians.
But the Ukrainians aren’t on their way to Moscow or something like that. They’re creating an area and I would imagine that they’re going to build up fortifications against the inevitable Russian counterattack, and to bring in enough logistics for them to continue to do this until they’re satisfied that they’ve accomplished all they can or all they want.
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Meurmishvili: As a military officer, what do you think about the tactics that the Ukrainians used?
Gen. Hodges: I think three things here.
First, I have seen reports that (Russian military commander Valery) Gerasimov and the general staff were receiving intelligence that the Ukrainians were planning something, but they ignored it, didn’t believe it. And this is usually how these big surprises happen. Every time the United States has been surprised, going back to Pearl Harbor or Tet, Battle of the Bulge in the Second World War, we were getting intelligence, but we didn’t believe it because it didn’t fit the mindset, what we thought. And that’s usually how this happens. And I think this is what happened here.
The Ukrainians found a place on the border that had confused command and control, weak forces. The Russians were clearly not expecting to be attacked. And the Ukrainians had the discipline to not let this leak out in any kind of a meaningful way. That’s the first thing.
The second thing that impressed me about their attack is the way that they have been able to prevent effective use of drones by the Russians. I think they’ve created some sort of a bubble through counter-drone, non-kinetic means to reduce or degrade the effectiveness of Russia’s drones. And that’s how they’ve been able to go in so far without losing a lot of forces.
And then the third thing is that they seem to have the logistics required. Fuel, ammunition, maintenance. But I think also they knew they were probably going to go to an area where they would be able to capture some of these things that they might need.
Meurmishvili: What do you think it means for European security and how Europeans perceive this war?
Gen. Hodges: I think our European allies are watching closely, as we are, to Russia’s ability to react, what their vulnerabilities are. I hope that we are learning how the Ukrainians are operating in this electronic warfare environment, countering Russian drones. But the fact is, you still need disciplined, trained women and men in your armed forces to be able to do these things. This is not a digital game. These are real people operating in tough conditions. So I hope that all of our European allies are thinking about capabilities, but also the need to have quality women and men in your formations that are able to operate in these conditions.
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Send it to [email protected] for publication consideration.
Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
