After Syria’s Revolution, Turkey Holds Keys to What Comes Next

EXPERT INTERVIEWS — The stunning uprising in Syria will have ripple effects that reach far from Damascus and the other cities that the rebels captured in their rapid rebellion. Some ripple effects are already being felt – the departure of Iranian military and diplomatic personnel from Syria, and Israel’s bombing of Syrian military targets, to name two major developments in the days since Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was driven from power. 

Syria’s complex geopolitics (it occupies the Middle East’s “most complex geography,” as Cipher Brief expert Norman Roule put it last week) is evident in its relationship with Turkey, its powerful neighbor to the north. Turkey has played multiple roles in the Syria drama: the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has supported various groups opposed to the Assad regime – including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the successful rebellion; Turkey is home to some 3 million Syrian refugees, and another 3 million live in camps along the Syrian side of the border; and Turkey and Syria have had a long-shared goal of enmity toward the Kurdish groups that seek autonomy in the borderlands of the two countries.