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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

The Bear and the Dragon: The Threat of Sino-Russian Opportunism and Intelligence Miscalculation

Russia and China don’t need a secret war plan to overwhelm U.S. strategy — they may only need to reach the same dangerous conclusion at the same time.

RUSSIA-CHINA-DIPLOMACY

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: As Washington's attention continues to be diverted with an Iran unwilling to come to a comprehensive peace, a more dangerous [...] More

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The Open Source Report

MADRID, SPAIN - 2026/05/17: Cuban flags are seen on the rooftop of the Embassy of Cuba. People have gathered outside Cuban Embassy to protest and demand the end to the US blockade of Cuba. (Photo by Marcos del Mazo/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, May 18, 2026

U.S. intelligence warns of expanding Cuban drone capabilities and Iranian ties

Trump warns Tehran "clock is ticking" as Pakistan shares revised Iranian proposal

Fears grow that Iran may be using proxy groups beyond Mideast

Trump advisers fear China may target Taiwan in next 5 years

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

A Bridge Too Small: Why $49 Billion Can’t Fix a $1.5 Trillion Problem

Joey Gagnard

Welcome to The Iron Triangle, the Cipher Brief column serving Procurement Officers tasked with buying the future, Investors funding the next generation of defense technology, and the Policy Wonks analyzing its impact on [...] More

Sustaining Decision Advantage: The Case for Analytic Tradecraft Reform

Brian Lessenberry

OPINION -- In an era where warfighters and decision-makers have on-demand access to vast data holdings and AI-generated insights, the future of intelligence analysis will be defined by the ability to apply modernized [...] More

News & Analysis

U.S. Donald Trump Meets With China's President Xi In South Korea

When a Charismatic and a Machiavellian Meet

ANALYSIS -- President Trump will visit Beijing later this month for the first time in almost a decade. As a former CIA clinical psychologist, I have [...] More

Opinion

The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran

OPINION -- As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run [...] More

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Book Reviews

THE FAMILY BUSINESS: The CIA director flew to Havana a free days ago to deliver a message from President Trump - and found the Castro dynasty still very much in the room. John Ratcliffe met with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, a one-time presidential bodyguard, and former head of Cuba's equivalent of the Secret Service, along with Cuba's interior minister and the head of Cuban intelligence. Rodríguez Castro has never held a formal government post. Ratcliffe reportedly urged the Cubans to take the January operation that ousted Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela as a lesson. The Cuban [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

Jennifer Ewbank dives deep into how algorithmic manipulation and AI are reshaping the battlefield of information.

As threats evolve, our understanding of them must too. The convergence of technology and tactics is unprecedented, and it's vital to recognize the implications of this industrialized production of misinformation.

The developments in AI could be a game-changer, enabling us to identify synthetic media at scale, offering a way to counter this threat without censorship.

Is this the moment we redefine our approach to misinformation?