Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist, including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, with the U.S. Dept. of State from 2002-2016. He is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX.
OPINION — In 2000, Xi Jinping, a relatively unknown Governor of Fujian, gave a rare interview to a Chinese newspaper. The interview provided a window into aspects of Xi Jinping’s leadership qualities and psychological sensibility. In the interview, he stated, “do not try to do the impossible, do not strive for the unobtainable, do not rest on the transient, do not do what cannot be repeated.” In the same interview, Xi, cautious to a fault, described his economic philosophy as, “to light a small fire to warm up the water, keep the fire burning and now and again pour some more cold water in, so that the kettle did not boil over.” Such comments have an eerie prescience, as the kettle now threatens to boil over, given the recent outbreak of Coronavirus, which represents the most serious challenge that Xi and the Chinese Communist Party face as China begins a new decade.
Xi’s authoritarian management of domestic policy – including his absolute emphasis on the primacy of the CCP, control of the internet, and his support of crackdowns on human rights and civil discourse – has also played a significant role in China’s ongoing political and economic climate, as well as Xi’s remarkable, singular accumulation of power. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has described Xi’s rule to date as “a master class in political warfare.” But Xi’s “master class” is being threatened, and many observers have recently noted that Xi’s power is seriously imperiled. Such views are mistaken, and don’t take into account not only Xi’s leadership skills, but also his sense of who he is, and his marriage of that sensibility with China’s rejuvenation and national destiny. I wouldn’t bet against Xi quite yet.
Coronavirus was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late 2019, and on January 30, 2020, the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee of the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern.” The potential public health threat posed by 2019-nCoV virus is high, both globally and to the United States. The fact that this virus has caused illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread in China is of great concern. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic (e.g. the 3rd factor is global transmission).
In dealing with the challenges of Hong Kong’s civil demonstrations, a slowing Chinese economy, and the China-US trade talks, Xi has exhibited his characteristic resolve, patience, and strategic vision. He has shied away from impulsive actions – contrary to the predictions of many pundits. But with the Coronavirus outbreak, both Xi and the CCP leadership have had missteps, leading some observers to wonder if his rule – or the rule of the Party – is under serious challenge. Such thinking ignores Xi’s personal history and his previous responses to political and economic challenges. Xi would – like most Chinese – intuitively appreciate that the Chinese character for ‘crisis’ means both ‘danger’ and ‘an incipient moment where a situation may change.’ Xi’s response so far to the Coronavirus epidemic suggests that he has lost his earlier deftness, charisma, and soft power touch (one of his biggest assets in this regard was always First Lady Peng Liyuan), while recently exhibiting a leadership style which may represent a combination of ideology and personality, as well as cognitive rigidity —- a phenomenon often observed in aging leaders. If true, this is a potential tipping point for Xi, the Party, and for China.
While many experts have written that Coronavirus represents a crisis, because of its possible pandemic nature, and also because of its potential havoc upon the already slowed, debt-laden Chinese economy, they miss how it may also represent – if properly managed by Xi and the Chinese leadership – an opportunity. The Chinese have shown an unbelievable public-health response to the Coronavirus epidemic, quarantining multiple cities with millions of inhabitants each, and shutting down every outdoor animal market in the country. In Hubei province alone, over 60 million people have been quarantined. China has partnered appropriately with the WHO, in making attempts to work with international partners to stave off the epidemic. This aggressive approach raises hope that Xi and the Chinese government will successfully contain the epidemic, and utilize best practices and lessons learned with respect to future epidemics/pandemics.
Xi has delegated management of the epidemic to Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, showing that he is more than willing to cede control of challenges which can lead to political and economic successes (as he did with Vice Premier Liu He with respect to the recently-signed phase 1 trade deal with the US). This suggests that Xi’s leadership style continues to evolve, and that 2022 (when Xi’s 10-year tenure will now likely end) may bring further change to China.
During the course of the Coronavirus epidemic, it’s easy to forget China’s ambitions, dovetailed with Xi’s great dream of rejuvenation of the Chinese people. A major component of this plan involves Xi’s ‘Made in China 2025.’ While western observers have tended to focus on China’s efforts in robotics and AI, they have often neglected its innovative efforts in biotechnology. There are tens of thousands of Chinese graduate students and post-doctoral students in the US doing cutting-edge bio-medical research. Chinese scientists can be expected – when they return home, and with Xi’s encouragement, to turn such energies towards biomedicine and the development of rapid vaccines, thereby borrowing a page from DARPA’s playbook.
It is easy when observing Xi Jinping’s leadership style, to forget how formidable he has been, and to lose sight of his resilience. He has endured the challenges of his own political rise to power, the disruptive 2016 election of President Donald Trump, the US-China trade war, and North Korea’s aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons capabilities. It’s worthwhile to highlight Xi’s own words in understanding his psychological attributes and inner strength. In his own writings and his 2000 interview, Xi has spoken of his adverse childhood experiences, stating, “the knife is sharpened on a stone, people are strengthened in adversity. Every man is to find his own strength.” Xi has also written of himself as serving the Party and the people, stating, “when you are close to the grass roots and close to the people, no storms from any corner of the world can blow you down or make you surrender.” Again quoting former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Western analysts should use caution when projecting onto China “an image of their preferred imaginings, rather than one reflecting the actual statements of China’s own leaders, or in the physical evidence of Chinese statecraft. These have long pointed to a vastly different reality.” So, Xi is worth watching very carefully, without a rush to judgment, as the Coronavirus outbreak evolves, and Xi, the Party, and China continue to lead the response to this novel, frightening pathogen.
Dr. Kenneth Dekleva served as a Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist (including 5 years at the U.S. Embassy Moscow, Russian Federation) with the U.S. Dept. of State during 2002-2016, and is currently Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Director, Psychiatry-Medicine Integration, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX. He has previously published political psychology/leadership profiles of Radovan Karadzic, Slobodan Milosevic, and Kim Jong il. The views expressed in this paper are entirely his own and do not represent the official views of the U.S. Government, the U.S. Dept. of State, or UT Southwestern Medical Center.
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