On the heels of his tour of the western world, Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou for 20 minutes this Saturday in Singapore. Despite the short length, it’s groundbreaking - this will be the first time the leaders of these two governments have met since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.
According to Dr. Robert Sutter, a former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific at the US National Intelligence Council, “the meeting comes as a surprise, even though President Ma has said ‘no surprises.’”
Meanwhile, the motivations behind President Xi’s unexpected meeting with his Taiwanese counterpart are not totally clear. “This comes with a Chinese President more able and willing to seek new approaches as he pursues the ‘China Dream’” said Sutter, now a professor at George Washington University. “He's harder to predict than earlier Chinese Presidents Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. His activism comes at various others' expense—notably the U.S.”
For his part, Taiwanese leader Ma faces upcoming January elections in which his Kuomintang Party, which traditionally takes a neutral stance towards Beijing, is predicted to lose to the Democratic Progressive Party, whose supporters favor full Taiwanese independence. According to Sutter, “Taiwan's overall approach is also at a major turning point, as past assumptions and Ma's approach have become much less popular.”
The meeting comes at a time when western eyes have been focused on China, particularly in light of last week’s unexpected U.S. naval patrol of the South China Sea. Presidential candidates from both parties have called for a tougher U.S. stance toward China but Sutter notes that “the Obama government can be expected to work along existing policy lines.” What does that mean? “Treating Taiwan favorably, but ever mindful that U.S. moves need to avoid sensitive points with China over Taiwan and a possible escalation of tensions with China over this issue. This approach has been with us since early in the George W. Bush Administration. Pressures for change are not significant yet, but the view that Taiwan should be treated on its own merits, without so much deference to China is growing—especially as the U.S. becomes more acrimonious with China over various other issues.”
As for the future of U.S. relations with Beijing and Taiwan, Sutter says, “it is plausible to say that the U.S. may be entering its own period of transition on how to handle Taiwan issues,” but this re-evaluation will depend on which U.S. candidate wins in 2016. Even then, Sutter feels significant change is unlikely as, “the inertia in the government will tend to argue for stability and avoiding ‘unnecessary’ problems with China.”
Alexandra Viers is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
