The Cipher Brief reached out to Dr. Geoff Porter, the founder of North Africa Risk Consulting, to get his take on security trends in Mali in the wake of yesterday’s attack against the RadissonBlu hotel. Porter, also an assistant professor at West Point, has spent more than two decades working in North Africa.
The Cipher Brief: Generally speaking, what’s the security situation like in Mali? What advice would you give to Westerners living and working in the capital?
GP: The security situation throughout the country varies. While the north – Kidal, Gao, Timbuktu – remains problematic, the south for the most part is safe. However, the most significant security problem in Bamako is the potential intelligence shortfall and the security services’ inability to intercept attacks like the ones that occurred today. There is still a ready availability of weapons and materiel in the north of the country and it is not difficult for would-be attackers to penetrate the capital which is more heterogeneous than other parts of the south.
For the most part, Westerners should stay away from conventional gathering spots like expat clubs, hotel bars, and ambassadorial residences. To the extent possible, they should vary their routes to and from their places of work and should try to lower their profiles.
TCB: What terrorist groups have a presence in Mali? A group affiliated with al-Qaeda has claimed credit. Do you think that claim is credible? Do you expect we’ll find some sort of link between this attack and the ones in Paris?
GP: There is a cluster of terrorist organizations in Mali. Historically, AQIM (Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) dominated the north of the country, but it began to fracture in 2011. Other groups emerged to compete with it or to work alongside it.
For example, there is Ansar Dine, which is led by a Taureg from northern Mali. In addition, there is Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which was part of AQIM and broke off due to disagreements about the promotion prospects of Africans in the al-Qaeda structure. It declared allegiance to the Islamic State in May 2015. Finally, there is al-Mourabitoun, which broke off from AQIM in December 2012 and was led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar until his death in Libya in June 2015.
What we are seeing is al-Qaeda allied groups in the Sahel trying to maintain their relevancy in the face of the growing influence of the Islamic State. To the extent that there is a connection between what transpired in Paris, it is that the RadissonBlu is associated with foreigners in Mali and the French have the largest foreign presence in the country by far.
TCB: What about ISIS? Does the group have a presence in Mali?
GP: The Islamic State has no real enduring presence in Mali except with the possibility of MUJAO. But while MUJAO pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, that pledge was neither acknowledged nor accepted by the Islamic State. The group previously-known as Boko Haram is an Islamic State affiliate in Nigeria, but its stronghold there is almost 3000 kilometers from Bamako.
TCB: A peace accord between the Malian government and several militia and rebel factions, including the Tuareg rebels, was signed in May. How has the peace deal held up this far?
GP: Peace deals with the Taureg are cyclical. The government rarely allocates sufficient resources to the north of the country where the Taureg predominantly live and only after episodic Taureg rebellions does it acquiesce to giving them more resources for development and human security. However, it rarely follows through on these commitments and after a period of years begins to neglect the North again. So while the peace deal is very fragile at the moment, it is more than likely to fall apart in the foreseeable future.
TCB: Generally speaking, how effective and capable are Mali’s security services?
GP: Mali’s security services are inconsistent. Some forces that have been trained by the US have capabilities, but they are a very small group of soldiers. The remainder are undertrained and underequipped.
TCB: The two most recent terrorist attacks in Mali were carried out at hotels. Is there a reason why hotels are specifically targeted by terrorists in Mali?
GP: The reason that hotels are targeted in Mali is because there is little infrastructure associated with the Western presence in the country. Westerners are there for diplomatic reasons and not for investment. Westerners come, engage with Malian counterparts, and leave. There is no permanent Western presence.
