The votes have been cast, the decision made, and now comes the really tough part: governing. During a presidential campaign, issues are portrayed mostly in black and white terms. But when it comes time to actually take hold of the reins of power, the candidate’s stated positions run smack into the array of obstacles and challenges that impact all policy decisions. Now that Donald Trump has been tapped to lead the country, there is little doubt these realities will force him to adjust some of his campaign positions. Nevertheless, he has never held political office and never governed; we only have his campaign rhetoric to gauge his intended actions.
In the national security realm, there are innumerable, daunting challenges President-elect Trump will face from day one. Here is what he has said about a few of the most critical ones.
Russia—President Vladimir Putin presents a challenge to the U.S. unseen since the end of the Cold War—some Kremlin watchers suggest even more so. Intrusions into Georgia; the annexation of Crimea and fomenting unrest in Eastern Ukraine, military maneuvering near the NATO-member Baltic States, accusations of attempting to influence the U.S. election through cyberattacks, including hacks of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the ongoing military intervention in Syria, demonstrate Putin’s desire to make Russia a force to be reckoned with on the world stage.
Trump said he “would have a very, very good relationship with Putin,” and he could see joining forces with Russia to “knock the hell out of ISIS.” He also disputed the intelligence community’s assessment that Russia was behind the hacking of the DNC, claiming nobody knows.
ISIS—The Syrian Democratic Forces, led mainly by Kurdish fighters, are in the very early stages of a campaign to oust ISIS from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria. Meanwhile, another joint military assault is already underway in Mosul, Iraq with no clear sign of how long it will take – and at what cost – to successfully remove ISIS.
But even if ISIS is eventually driven out of what remains of its self declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq, no one expects the threat from ISIS to disappear. Rather, as Nice, Paris, Brussels, Orlando, and Germany reflect, the group is likely to double down on its proven ability to launch coordinated and inspire lone-wolf terrorist attacks in the West.
Trump said he would “decisively bomb the hell out of ISIS,” blow up the oil fields controlled by the terrorist group, and potentially send 20,000-30,000 U.S. troops to knock out ISIS. He also suggested he would take out relatives of suspected terrorists and shut down part of the Internet so that ISIS can’t recruit Americans. At one point, he claimed to “know more than the generals do” about ISIS.
Syria—No problem cries out more for immediate humanitarian action than the dire situation in Syria. The continuing onslaught in Aleppo by Syrian and Russian forces inches closer to a breaking point every day, and raises questions about whether anything can be done to prevent what seems inevitable—a splintered nation with millions of displaced – potentially permanently — citizens, overwhelming neighboring countries and Europe.
The president-elect supports creating safe zones in Syria and has indicated he wants “to sit back” and let Russia continue its airstrikes in Syria.
Iraq—Even if the Mosul campaign is successful in driving out ISIS, sectarian animosity among the Shia, Sunni, and Kurds, rampant corruption within the Iraqi government, and what is seen as undue Iranian influence within the Iraqi government pose formidable challenges to the country’s stability.
There has been little said by Trump about Iraq other than to criticize former President George W. Bush for invading the country in the first place and President Obama for withdrawing forces too soon. At one point, he indicated the U.S. should “declare victory and leave.”
Iran—So far, Iran is reportedly adhering to the nuclear deal implemented earlier this year, but Trump has called the agreement “one of the worst deals” and at one point suggested he would “work to dismantle” it. Subsequently, he has said he would enforce the deal and hold Iran “totally accountable.” Trump has also said his administration would stand up to Iran’s aggressive actions in the region and dismantle Iran’s terror network, but he didn’t explain how.
Afghanistan—President Obama intended to have nearly all forces out before he left office, but earlier this year, his military advisors convinced him to keep a contingent of 8,400 troops in Afghanistan. Whether that will be enough to help the faltering Afghan military fight back the Taliban and maintain control of the country, however, is unclear.
Trump has indicated he would keep U.S. forces in Afghanistan, but has said little else about the future of American involvement in the country.
China—The U.S.’ most high-profile point of contention with China concerns the militarization of the South China Sea, a key global shipping route. Although increasingly frustrated with North Korea, China continues to support President Kim Jong-un, whose frequent nuclear and missile tests threaten the security of the region. Pyongyang’s actions have led to the U.S. hastening its implementation of an anti-ballistic missile system in the region, which itself has become a flashpoint with China. There are numerous other points of contention, including monetary policy, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, human rights, and cyberattacks.
Trump has said China would “suffer economically” if Beijing doesn’t use its influence over North Korea, at one point saying China needs “to make that guy (North Korean President Kim Jong-un) disappear in one form or another.” In addition, he said he would label China a “currency manipulator” and increase the U.S.’ military presence in the disputed South China Sea.
Cybersecurity—China hacked OPM, North Korea hacked Sony, Iran hacked a damn in New York, and Russia hacked the DNC. Cyber intrusions by nation-states generally have one of three objectives: espionage, attack, or battlefield preparation. When a hack becomes public or goes too far, a decision has to be made about how to respond.
Other than disputing the government’s contention that Russia was behind the DNC hack, Trump has not elaborated on a cybersecurity policy.
NATO/International Alliances—The U.S. worked closely with its NATO partners to sanction Russia for its actions in Ukraine and improve defenses of NATO allies who feel threatened by Moscow’s provocations. America heads coalitions fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Since the Korean War, the U.S. has stationed military assets in South Korea, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia to counter what is now a growing threat from North Korea.
Trump has called NATO “obsolete” saying it needs to focus more on combatting terrorism and less on Russian deterrence. He also wants the European allies to pay what he considers their fair share for defense—it’s “costing us a fortune.”
Likewise, with Japan and South Korea, he said it is time for those nations to contribute more to their defense, even indicating the U.S. might pull its forces out if the two countries don’t help cover the costs of those troops. Trump even went so far as to suggest they should acquire nuclear weapons to defend themselves.
Any actions initiated by Trump will not be in a vacuum. Who he chooses to advise him on national security natters—Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Director of National Intelligence, CIA Director, National Security Advisor, etc.— his consultations and legislative agenda with the Republican controlled Congress, as well as his relationship with international allies, will determine the direction he ultimately takes.
Pam Benson is the managing editor at The Cipher Brief.
