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What to Watch For

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Posted: July 7th, 2016

By Michael H. Fuchs

Michael H. Fuchs is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, and was formerly a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

With a ruling imminent in the arbitration case initiated by the Philippines against China over claims in the South China Sea, officials around Asia are bracing for the results, while analysts are busy handicapping the potential fallout.

As I wait for the verdict, I prefer to abide by Yogi Berra’s wise dictum: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Southeast Asia seems topsy-turvy at the moment—there’s a new and unpredictable president in the Philippines, and the usually domestic policy focused Indonesian president is thumping his chest (metaphorically, of course) on a warship in the South China Sea. For these reasons, I’m going to steer clear from making bold predictions or grand statements about how the arbitration case will determine the course of history in Asia.

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