What Might a CIA-tasked 'Red Cell' on China Tell us?

What Might a CIA-tasked ‘Red Cell’ on China Tell us?

Posted: January 11th, 2024

By Martin Petersen

Martin Petersen spent 33 years with the CIA, retiring in February 2005 as Deputy Executive Director and Acting Executive Director. In the course of his agency career, he ran two large analytic units (The Office of East Asian Analysis and the Office of Asian Pacific Latin America Analysis) before becoming Associate Deputy Director of Intelligence for Strategic Plans and Programs, the first Chief Human Resources Officer for CIA, and Deputy Executive Director.

By Kristin Wood

During her 20-year CIA career, Kristin Wood served in the Director’s area and three Agency directorates – analysis, operations, and digital innovation – leading a wide variety of the Agency’s missions in positions of increasing authority. Among her key Agency assignments were Deputy Chief of the Innovation & Technology Group at the Open Source Center (OSC). She led OSC’s open-source IT and innovation efforts to extract meaning from big data.

OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — After 9/11, the Directorate of Intelligence (DI) at CIA created a ‘Red Cell’ that was given the mission of truly thinking outside the box. It was staffed by a handful of the DI’s best analysts who were tasked to go beyond any reporting and think through hypothetical situations. The product was shared with the President and others, not as predictions, but as a way to stimulate their thinking about possible future developments. They were well received.

This is a Red Cell-like product. The situation: it is 2041 and China is now the pre-eminent global power having eclipsed the United States, and Beijing is busily re-ordering the international “rules of the game” established after WWII, to suit its needs.

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