Martin Petersen

US Climate Envoy John Kerry is in China ahead of a Climate Summit next week hosted by US President Joe Biden.  As tensions between the two countries remain high over issues ranging from Taiwan to trade to cyber, the Biden Administration is hoping there is still room for cooperation on climate and efforts to cut emissions.

As part of a special series on climate in partnership with The Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Cipher Brief Expert Kristin Wood is hosting a series of conversations and perspectives on the issue.  This week, we focus on China’s climate record and why Special Envoy Kerry has his work cut out for him in Shanghai.

The authors of today’s brief on China’s climate record are Martin Petersen and Mary McMahon.

CLIMATE SERIES — The People’s Republic of China is one of the biggest contributors to global warming. Twenty-eight percent of all carbon dioxide emissions are produced in China, and Beijing is the world’s largest consumer of coal. In fact, China consumed more coal in 2019 that the rest of the world combined. More concerning is that China’s record is unlikely to improve as significantly as the world needs it to over the next decade, and Beijing’s mix of climate actions and inactions will have consequences for the United States.

At the United Nations in September 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced China’s revised goals to hit peak carbon dioxide emissions no later than 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, stating that “all countries must take decisive steps to honor [the Paris] Agreement.” While this announcement – China’s first neutrality target – encouraged hope in the international community that the lead emitter was gearing up for more ambitious climate action, the draft summary of Beijing’s 14th Five-Year Plan released in early March, dashed many of those hopes. The Plan underwhelms on the climate action front and indicates a snail’s pace shift away from coal.

The PRC under Xi is committed to becoming the world’s largest economy, and cheap energy is a critical variable in meeting that goal. Industry experts project that fossil fuels will remain China’s principal source of energy for the next 20 years, comprising 35 percent of its primary energy consumption in 2040 barring drastic policy changes.  Indeed, Beijing has 88 gigawatts of new coal power plants under construction now and more than 158 gigawatts in the planning stage—together those coal plants under development total enough capacity to power Germany.