Iran’s threat to no longer comply is widely seen as an ultimatum meant to pressure European countries to convince Washington to back off of increased sanctions demands. European countries have indicated they will reject any ultimatums.
Tehran has previously threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to increased sanctions and the U.S. deployed warships to the Gulf last week amid reported intelligence indicating that Iran was enabling proxies to launch attacks against U.S. interests.
Bottom Line: Experts believe the likelihood of confrontation between the U.S. and Iran is growing, but still stops short of war. The Cipher Brief spoke with expert Norm Roule, the former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI, about the escalating tensions and what Iran may do next.
The Cipher Brief: Why would Iran be backing out of some parts of the nuclear agreement? To what end?
Roule: Iran is seeking to pressure Europe, Russia, and China to oppose U.S. sanctions against Tehran. Iran announced that unless it sees progress in regard to sanctions relief within 60 days, it will expand uranium enrichment and resume work on the Arak Heavy Water Reactor.
Although important symbolically, these activities would not mean a resumption of weaponization efforts, at least not immediately. For example, the nuclear deal required Iran to destroy critical equipment in the Arak Reactor which will be very difficult to replace, and the reactor is years from reaching the point where it would be operational. Nonetheless, if Iran exceeds its heavy water or low enrichment stockpile limits, Europe, Russia and China would likely be required to introduce those sanctions suspended by the nuclear deal.
The Cipher Brief: How do you expect Iran will respond to additional sanctions?
Roule: In that Iran does not wish to escalate the crisis to the point where it boils over into a conventional conflict, its options are few and range in significance. On one end, we have its traditional defiant rhetoric. I would expect additional propaganda on the impact of sanctions on Iran’s civilians.
Norm Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"Iran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif will also seek to inject a narrative favorable to Tehran into the Western press. Next, Tehran will press the EU, Russians, and Chinese to ignore U.S. sanctions in order to keep Iran in the deal. Finally, belt-tightening is already underway in regard to surrogates and this will continue. I don’t see Iran reducing its regional posture or making any compromises in the near term, however. The pressure on the regime is not yet significant enough for that."
The Cipher Brief: What is Iran’s longer-term strategy?
Roule: Strategically, to avoid regime-destabilizing turbulence during a time when it faces an unprecedented number of domestic challenges and the prospect of a leadership transition. Iran almost certainly hopes to retain the support of European Union for the nuclear deal in return for sanctions relief on oil exports, the repatriation of export revenues, and use of international financial channels. In addition, Iran certainly hopes the Trump administration will be replaced in 2020 by an administration which will return to the nuclear deal as well as join Europe in refraining from taking action against Iran’s regional interventions.
The Cipher Brief: What likelihood is there that the increased pressure the sanctions will place on Iran’s economy will have the desired effect?
Norm Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"We are still some ways from the point where sanctions will bring Iran back to the negotiating table but there are press reports that Iran’s surrogates are experiencing money problems. That’s evidence of sanctions success. My sense is that Iran’s rhetoric will spike as sanctions take a deeper bite."
The Cipher Brief: How should the U.S. have acted in response to reported intelligence that indicated Iran had authorized surrogates to attack U.S. forces?
Roule: Multiple U.S. officials publicly warned Iran that any such attack would provoke a U.S. response. The U.S. response was an appropriate use of public diplomacy as deterrence. It’s important that the U.S. has stated that it will hold Iran accountable for the actions of its proxies.
Iran’s regional policy has been successful precisely because the international community has not held Iran accountable for the actions of the proxies it controls. This allows Iran to undertake offensive actions – from missile attacks against Saudi Arabia (and the thousands of expatriates – to include Americans – who live there) to terrorism – and escape any cost simply by employing proxies.
Challenging this strategy does raise the potential for confrontation and perhaps even conflict with Iran, but failure to do so cedes the region to Iran in a way which will be difficult to reverse.
The Cipher Brief: Is there a change in Iranian strategy that may have fueled this?
Roule: Iran has employed the prospect of surrogate threats whenever it faces pressure. Its establishment of a transnational Shi’a and Sunni militant surrogate network in recent years allows it to draw upon a broader pool of partners.
The Cipher Brief: What is the likelihood - given your knowledge of Iran, that this will continue to escalate?
Roule: The likelihood of confrontation is growing, but Iran is unlikely to seek war. Its domestic situation demands stability as it works through impending leadership transition and an unprecedented, simultaneous, and essentially unsolvable series of demographic, environmental, economic, political, and social problems.
Confrontation also brings certain domestic political advantages, to include a “rally around the flag” effect and some strengthening of hardliners. But war would likely mean the end of the Islamic Republic and there is no evidence that Iran’s leaders are suicidal or have ceased to seek the preservation of the Islamic Republic.
Norm Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
"This said, Iran is almost certain to undertake some action designed to test U.S. fortitude and alliances. They see the U.S.’ domestic political disputes and know that their issue is one of many wedges between the U.S. and Europe."
Should they undertake an attack, the U.S. response should be swift, powerful, and proportional and should include private and public messaging that the U.S. is prepared to escalate the response if Iran or its proxies fail to cease such behavior.
The Cipher Brief: Iran’s Foreign Minister has indicated an interest in negotiations. What do you make of this?
Roule: It’s likely propaganda. First, a serious offer would not be made publicly, but quietly through such formal channels as their representative at the United Nations or via a third country. Second, he didn’t actually say he was empowered to conduct negotiations. He said he was empowered to conduct a prisoner exchange. As much as the U.S. seeks the release of Americans unfairly detained in Iran, the idea that Iran would effectively announce an auction to see what the U.S. is willing to pay for their release is outrageous. Finally, Iran has rejected past U.S. offers to discuss non-nuclear issues, likely because the concessions required for progress would be opposed by hardliners.
Read more from Norm Roule in The Cipher Brief
Find out how to become a part of the conversation with the experts at The Cipher Brief's 2020 Threat Conference. Seats are limited. Apply for yours today.
