Ongoing protests throughout the region have led some to ask whether we are on the verge of a second Arab Spring. The Cipher Brief spoke with ODNI’s former National Intelligence Manager, Norm Roule, who is one of the world’s leading experts on the region, about what we should make of recent events.
The Cipher Brief: How should we look at ongoing protests in the region?
Roule: Since 2018, a number of regional countries have been rocked by protests: Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, The Sudan, and Tunisia most notably. Protests have also continued in Iran, albeit the numbers seem consistent with patterns seen in recent years. Common themes in regional unrest include deep frustration with corruption, unmet economic expectations, and a sense that the entire spectrum of political leadership has failed. With only a few exceptions, protests have been large, widespread, peaceful, and included elements from much of the respective country’s social strata. Also, with few exceptions, there is no organized opposition capable of stepping into power. Generally, but again with exceptions, the response by security forces has been less violent than what some might have expected.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
It is no coincidence that some describe the current events as a second Arab Spring, but I think it would be more accurate to characterize this as the latest stage in a process which began in 2010. Since the end of the first phase of this process in circa 2013, the fears of state collapse which might fuel an ISIS caliphate have faded while frustration with failed political programs and income disparity continued. The social media tools which empowered and enabled the Arab Spring protests are still in place and continue to be effective. Events are also notable for what we don’t see. Calls for solutions founded in pan-Arab nationalism, sectarianism, and political Islam are rarely heard.
The Cipher Brief: How do you assess Iran’s response to the protests in Lebanon and Iraq?
Roule: I think Iran is playing a weak hand and suspect Tehran is worried. While it is certainly true that protests in these countries are not entirely Iran’s fault, Iran’s support of militias and extremist leaders has exacerbated local political and economic problems. Iran has shown that it can inspire, fund, arm, and train militias, but its presence brings no economic solutions, worsens corruption, and discourages foreign investment. U.S.-led sanctions on Iran also reduce the amount of cash that can be thrown at this problem. In short, Iran exports not only terrorism, but the same social and economic conditions the Islamic revolution imposes on the Iranian people themselves. Iran is now also the focus of regional anger. Crowds in Lebanon and Iraq have attacked symbols of Iran. Notably, little of the anger is directed against the U.S, West, or other regional actors. For Iran, and especially the Quds Force, this must come as a shock given the size of its regional investment, and the sense of regional success produced by Iran’s own propaganda machine. Press reports that the Quds Force head flew to Iraq to help shape the latter’s response to protests, if true, tell me that Iran views its influence at risk, but it isn’t clear it can do more than organize a more effective security response. Those seeking to push back Iran in the region may be best advised to consider how to support better governance and more responsive local leaders. But this is far easier said than done. Iran’s proxies and partners are among the most entrenched (and best armed). Iran won’t oppose foreign aid which stabilizes economies, but it will certainly urge its partners to respond with every tool available – to include violence – to protect Tehran’s equities and influence.
The Cipher Brief: How will the collapse of the government in Lebanon affect Hezbollah’s political standing and influence in the country?
Roule: Lebanese Hezbollah’s response to the unrest has been no more effective than its Iraqi counterparts, but I have yet to see evidence that its position in Lebanon is threatened. Certainly, Lebanon’s political architecture – in which Hezbollah has a large voice – is widely viewed within Lebanon as ineffective, self-serving, and corrupt. But anger over economic problems such as a short-lived proposal to tax such Voice over IP (VoIP) services as WhatsApp, failing social services (e.g., garbage collection), and the austerity budget put in place to attract international aid sent people into the streets. Pro-Hezbollah counter protestors have attacked protestors, which caused the Lebanese Armed Forces to step in to separate each side. But Hezbollah violence has not yet been such to turn the country’s Shi’a against the organization in sufficient numbers to threaten its power.
The Cipher Brief: So, where is this going?
Roule: In short, I think we should expect more of the same. Events in Iraq are particularly worrisome. The trust deficit between the region’s population and its leadership is unlikely to shift. Economic solutions supported by the West or international organizations will mandate unpopular austerity. The region’s youth are demanding the sort of future regional leaders don’t seem able to understand or to produce. Worse, the problems are hugely expensive and require infrastructure which will take years to build. Exceptions to this dire situation are found – for at least the foreseeable future – in the Gulf where societies are more stable due to relatively popular monarchies, and social benefits fueled by oil wealth. There is opportunity here.
Norman T. Roule, Former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
The Gulf states are tired of endless requests for cash by poorer regional governments. I understand that such requests by Sudan and Lebanon have been partially satisfied and only then once Gulf states were assured that the money would not add to corruption or other structural problems which make the aid useful. The U.S., Europe, and the Gulf would likely benefit from more joint efforts in this regard.
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