One of the critical adverse effects of climate change is the impact it will have on water in terms of both quantity and quality. Marcus King, a former negotiator for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told The Cipher Brief, competition for water resources is likely to lead to conflict.
The Cipher Brief: Some of our readers may not be familiar with the problem of water scarcity. Can you tell us what water scarcity is and how have the problems created by water scarcity changed over time?
Marcus King: Economic growth and population expansion are drivers of water demand. The global population will increase from maybe 7 billion in 2012 to 8 billion by 2030. Global water consumption from irrigation, domestic, industrial and livestock uses is expected to grow 20 percent by 2050. Non-agricultural uses of water such as drinking and sanitation will continue to increase dramatically. While demand is projected to rise, world water supply is growing scarce. Based an extrapolation of current trends, annual global water requirements will reach 40 percent above current sustainable water supplies by 2030.
However, experts agree that water security is not determined by the absolute amount of water that is available but rather the way it is used and where it is located. These factors can depend on both geography and governance. According to the UN, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity as soon as 2025, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be living under water-stressed conditions. Areas may also experience economic water scarcity, a term used to describe a situation where water resources may be available but people do not have or cannot afford the infrastructure to exploit those resources. Yemen is a good example of country in this situation, where instability can cause problems for international security.
TCB: To what extent has climate change affected water scarcity, and how do you see it affecting it moving forward?
MK: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authoritative body of climate scientists convened by the UN, the rapid onset of climate change will accelerate the most harmful trends related to water both in quantity and quality.
As climate change manifests itself more strongly, some regions will be vulnerable to increasing water scarcity. The Sahel region of northern Africa, Central America, the southern Andes, southern Africa and Oceania are expected to receive the most extreme seasonal decreases in precipitation. Most of these regions are expected to experience high population growth, which will mean dealing with higher demand for water at a time of decreasing supply. Australia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe and Central America do not share these demographic conditions, but they will be especially prone to drought.
Extreme precipitation events, both rain and snow, have also become more frequent and intense. There is some disagreement in the scientific community about whether these events are directly attributable to anthropogenic climate change, but they nonetheless carry a significant impact for water resources. For example, in 2012, floods in Pakistan affected over five million people and damaged or destroyed 500 thousand homes, contaminated drinking supplies by overrunning reservoirs or sewage disposal infrastructure, and destroyed crops. They also may have compromised sites where nuclear weapons are kept. Higher temperatures alter the timing of glacier melts and consequently seasonal water flows. This will eventually threaten the water supply of hundreds of millions of people in Asia and South America.
TCB: What are the security implications caused by water scarcity? How will problems caused by water scarcity affect regional stability in the future?
MK: Although conflict directly attributable to water has been rare, many doubt that this will continue to be so. Over the past few decades, international leaders have stood up and claimed that water will either cause or accelerate future wars. In 2008, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon declared during a session of the UN General Assembly that many of today’s conflicts around the world are being fuelled or exacerbated by water shortages, and climate change is only making the situation worse.
These periodic assertions by influential leaders of international organizations are supported by a growing academic and policy literature. New climate science models, combined with intelligence forecasts and some academic studies, raise doubts that water issues will continue to engender more cooperation than conflict. A 2012 U.S. Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security suggests that as water becomes scarcer, states may begin employing water as a “weapon” against their rivals for water resources, even in areas where cooperative solutions had previously prevailed. My extensive research indicates that the Islamic State (ISIS) has wielded this weapon effectively in Syria and Iraq after the worst drought in instrument record. The U.S. Department of Defense has realized the importance of water to U.S. national security: According to their assessments, competition for resources, including energy and water, will worsen tensions in the coming years and could escalate regional confrontations into broader conflicts – particularly in fragile states.
TCB: What can be done to mitigate this problem? What can governments do, what can businesses do, and how can they work together to address this problem?
MK: Solving tomorrow’s water challenges requires policies that address difficult trade-offs at the convergence of energy, food, and health security. In many cases, this calls for innovative multi-sectoral approaches that engage new actors as disparate as the military and faith-based organizations.
Discussions about water need to be “elevated” into nearly all U.S. foreign policy discussions in the focal areas of defense, development, and diplomacy. Overall, I think that science diplomacy through sharing technologies and data with countries in need, military-to-military cooperation in humanitarian assistance, and public private partnerships like a relationship between USAID and the Gates Foundation for example, hold the most promise in each foreign policy focus area to address water security in the world’s most unstable environments.
