The Trump administration is outsourcing the Qatar crisis to Kuwait, banking on the Kuwaiti monarch to bring the months-long crisis to a close. But ahead of a key Gulf Cooperation Council meeting this week, it’s not clear who is going to show up.
Last June, several GCC countries and Egypt imposed a trade blockade of Qatar, responding to what Doha says was a hacked news report that made it sound like Qatar was praising Iran, and Hezbollah and chiding Washington, D.C. Qatar cried foul over the hack, which the FBI has investigated, but the GCC nations have used the incident to make a list of demands of the tiny Gulf nation, including that it cut ties with Iran (with which it shares a large gas field), and stop funding terrorism, which Qatar denies.
Despite the possible impact of a Gulf blockade of Qatar on the U.S. military campaign against ISIS, Washington is opting to resolve the crisis indirectly, through Kuwaiti mediation and within the body of the GCC.
Kuwait’s decision to actively mediate the ongoing feud between several Gulf nations and Qatar shows a monarch stepping into a statesman role, and wily leader using diplomacy to avoid being forced to pick sides.
With the eruption of the Gulf crisis, Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al Sabah has not only emerged as a kingmaker seeking to bring the six-month dispute to an end but more broadly positioned himself as the region’s most trusted and experienced statesman.
The 88-year old monarch – who has ruled since 2006 – is also a generation older than the leaders of the feuding parties of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which pits United Arab Emirate Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan, 56, and de-facto ruler, along with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, 32, against Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
Qatar is home to the al-Udeid Air Base, the forward headquarters of Central Command, which oversees the U.S.-led coalition’s bombing campaign of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and maintains a direct line to Russia to manage Syria’s crowded skies. Bahrain is the home of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet and crucial bases for its campaign against ISIS, as well as the war in Afghanistan.
For its part, the UAE has distinguished itself as a valuable U.S. counter terrorism partner against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula as documented last week by The Cipher Brief. The UAE has also been a leader within the GCC to cultivate a framework for strategic dialogue with Israel, especially on issues pertaining to Iran.
From a U.S. perspective, the GCC is not only a strategic partner, but as a bloc it has significant potential when it comes to strengthening both economic and security cooperation. Together, the six nations can also strengthen counter-terrorism cooperation and help to raise funds for the strategic effort to stabilize Iraq in the post-ISIS environment.
These dynamics underscore why it is in the U.S. interest to solve the crisis as soon as possible, and that failure to do so could have potentially devastating geopolitical consequences for the broader Middle East and the Gulf region in particular, but could also drag Turkey, Iran and Russia into the mix as alternate alliances could be established with further destabilizing consequences.
Kuwait Summit
Despite the high stakes, it is far from certain whether the upcoming GCC summit will be a success as it is unclear who among the respective monarchs will attend: so far, only Qatar’s Emir Tamim has confirmed his attendance.
Unnamed Gulf diplomatic sources, however, have suggested that Sheikh Sabah of Kuwait is unlikely to have pushed ahead with the summit without tacit approval from Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who they say is expected to arrive. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive summit.
Some have also suggested that King Salman does not want to say no to Sheikh Sabah because of his diligent efforts to resolve the crisis. It is also well-understood that Saudi Arabia’s powerful Crown Prince, Muhammad Bin Salman, does not travel abroad because of the Kingdom’s precarious domestic stability.
While Bahrain’s king, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, declared in October that he would not attend the summit if Qatar was invited, his son, Crown Prince Salman, is believed to be attending the summit in his father’s place. The Crown Prince was in Washington last week to discuss Iran and a potential White House visit for the King while the U.S.-administration pushed for his attendance at the GCC Summit.
When it comes to the UAE, it is unclear who would attend as a consensus in Washington has emerged that it is UAE Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al-Nahyan who is driving the crisis because of his resentment of Qatar’s past support for regional Islamist groups. In the event that he does not come, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, is expected to attend.
From Oman, Deputy Prime Minister Fahd bin Mahmoud al Said has confirmed his participation. Oman has from the onset of the crisis supported a negotiated solution.
Either way, the success of the summit hinges on the Saudi king’s participation as neither Bahrain or the UAE would hesitate to snub the summit by sending lower ranking officials instead.
At the time of publication, it’s unclear whether the foreign ministers from the six GCC countries will arrive this week in Kuwait to prepare the summit’s agenda. What is confirmed, however, is that diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman have arrived in Kuwait City to help prepare for the logistics for the upcoming summit.
Complicating the already tense dynamics leading into the Summit is regional confusion about Washington’s policy towards the crisis.
“On the surface, the administration appears to be speaking with one voice, urging a peaceful resolution of the intra-GCC dispute, after a rocky start highlighted a gap between the White House and State and Defense views,” said Amb. Gerald Feierstein, director of Middle East Institute’s Gulf Program. “Nevertheless, rumors persist that Jared Kushner continues to signal the Saudis privately that they have a White House green light to squeeze the Qataris harder in the weeks to come, which would once again undercut State and Defense efforts to preserve U.S. interests in the Arabian Peninsula’s shifting sands.”
Commenting on the challenges Kuwait faces by hosting the Summit at this contentious time, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of Rice University's Baker Institute said, "Officials in Kuwait will want to avoid open disagreements of the sort that plagued a series of summits in the mid-1990s, which were marked by walkouts and boycotts. Much may depend on the level of the delegations present as well as on the management of the summit by the hosts."
Despite what on the surface appears to be a U.S. schizophrenic approach towards the crisis, the risk of the collapse of the GCC is actual and real. It is, however, in the U.S. national interest to prevent the GCC from collapsing and for that reason, Washington should ensure that even if the Qatar crisis is not resolved this time around, that the summit lays out a timeframe on how to resolve the crisis incrementally.
Towards that end, it is critical that Washington dispatches a senior State Department official to oversee that the Summit remains on track and to prevent any potential walkouts.
The most suitable to oversee the summit would be Timothy Lenderking, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arabian Gulf Affairs in the Near East Bureau at the U.S. Department of State.
At this point, ensuring that summit does not lead to further disagreements would in itself be a U.S. foreign policy success as it keep the GCC alive. If U.S. succeeds with it, it is a great score for the Trump-administration, which in turn could help establish a framework for how to solve Qatar crisis.
Sigurd Neubauer is a senior analyst at SOS International, a U.S. defense consultancy, and a Non-Resident Fellow at Gulf International Forum. His expertise includes U.S. policy towards the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf region, including: Oman; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; Yemen; Persian Gulf security; inter-GCC dynamics; Arab-Israeli relations; NATO and transatlantic security.
