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Ukraine 2024: Europe's Year of Reckoning

Ukraine 2024:  Europe's Year of Reckoning

KYIV, UKRAINE - DECEMBER 13: Cars lie wrecked near a damaged residential building after a Russian missile strike on December 13, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. For the second night in a row, Russia is attacking Kyiv with ballistic missiles. All ten missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian Air Defense Forces. However, fallen missiles' fragments resulted in destruction in Darnytskyi, Dniprovskyi and Desnyanskyi districts of Kyiv. At least 53 people were injured, including eight children. (Photo by Oleksii Samsonov/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images)

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION — Nearly a year ago, I wrote a column in The Cipher Brief arguing that Ukraine had just six months to win the war. Looking back at the arguments months later, I was right on three points but wrong on one.

The United States and Europe have indeed begun to lose patience with a war that is costing billions and is interfering with domestic elections. The chances of a successful counter-offensive were overrated, and Ukraine did indeed fail to win back substantial amounts of territory. And thirdly, I stressed that a negotiated deal would be disastrous for Ukraine.

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