British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party surprisingly lost a dozen seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament, in snap elections on Thursday. This calls into question Brexit negotiations and the UK’s future defense and security relationship with the European Union, as well as its internal security strategy.
May called for the general election in April – three years early – to gain a stronger hand in Brexit talks with the EU. Her Conservative Party had held a majority in Parliament with 330 seats, but it has now lost that position. No party now has a clear majority, and May is tasked with forming a new government, along with other parties in Parliament.
“The Prime Minister realized that this summer is probably the high-water mark of her popularity, and so called an election before the downside of Brexit becomes apparent to all,” Sir Michael Leigh, the former Director-General for EU Enlargement in the European Commission, told The Cipher Brief.
Instead of garnering public support, “She got a kick in the pants,” said UK political commentator and former journalist Chris Hampson.
May has been under pressure since Saturday’s terror attacks in London, due to cuts to the UK’s police force during her tenure as both Prime Minister and her previous post as Home Secretary.
“Her government's economic austerity program – which has led to a reduction of 20,000 serving police officers – was hard to defend during the recent terrorist attacks in the UK,” said Hampson, who was Director of International News at NBC in London until 2014. “Holes in our roads – as they crumble through lack of investment – we can live with. Holes in our security? Not so much.”
Nigel Inkster, the former head of operations and intelligence for the British Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, told The Cipher Brief there is “no basis” for the “assertion being made that there is a direct link between the drop in overall police numbers brought about by the Conservative austerity program and a reduction in security.”
May, in a speech outside No. 10 Downing Street Friday morning, said her new government will give “the police and the authorities the powers they need to keep our country safe” and crack down on “the ideology of Islamist extremism and all those who support it.”
She still needs to form a coalition government to continue her mandate. May said on Friday that she would create a new government with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. However, she could face hostility from other left-leaning or anti-Brexit parties. If a majority of members of Parliament do not support May, she will be expected to resign, according to the Cabinet Manual – a UK government document that sets out the main laws, rules, and conventions affecting the conduct and operation of government.
If May fails to form a coalition government, the Labour Party – the second-largest party in Parliament – will then be able to try to form its own power-sharing government. That will force people to “look harder at the resurgent Labour Party's approach to security,” said former senior member of the British Foreign Service Nick Fishwick.
Labour’s security policies are “still evolving,” Fishwick said. Labour, for its part, wants to “review” important aspects of the UK’s current counterterrorism strategy, but that “may or may not lead to big changes in policy,” he added.
There’s also the question, says Fishwick, of whether “[Labour Party Leader Jeremy] Corbyn and his team know what they are talking about and will they appear credible to other world leaders, and to police, intelligence and military chiefs here.”
Amid the internal political turmoil in the UK, the EU has been moving toward closer European security and defense cooperation under the assumption that Brexit is a done deal.
The UK, with its formidable military and special relationship with the United States, has been opposed to European defense consolidation since it joined the bloc more than four decades ago.
“The UK opposed the notion of Europe’s strategic autonomy and considers NATO and a close relationship with the United States, particularly on intelligence and naval matters, to be at the core of its security strategy,” said Leigh.
It has, however, taken a softer stance as it prepares to leave the EU. The European Commission launched an unprecedented initiative Wednesday – the Cooperative Financial Mechanism – to strengthen the EU’s defense industry by supporting companies developing military technology with billions of euros. London’s initial opposition to this initiative seemingly vanished with the Brexit referendum.
Perhaps more surprising is a new EU military unit that EU member states approved Thursday, the day of the British elections. According to observers, the Military Planning and Conduct Capabilities unit appears to be a first step toward an EU army, which London has opposed. The new unit will be responsible for EU training missions in Somalia, Mali, and the Central African Republic.
As the EU consolidates and strengthens its defense apparatus – under the assumption that Britain is leaving the EU in the next two years – some analysts argue that Brexit is no longer a done deal.
“Most people still assume that Britain will leave the EU, but after a result like last night you can't rule anything out,” said Fishwick.
On the other hand, Hampson told The Cipher Brief, “Most political parties accept the public mandate to leave the EU. The argument is now about the cost and conditions Europe wishes to impose as the price of exit.”
Kaitlin Lavinder is a reporter at The Cipher Brief. Follow her on Twitter @KaitLavinder.
